Newcastle
·
Handicap Steeple Chase (Go North Monet's Garden Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)
Starts in
3h 20min
Turf track
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score
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Our top pick for this race
Strong chance
Odds 13/8
£1 wins £1.63 · 34 Strong chance
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £2.63 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A 28.6% win rate at this course for C. Williams. Trainers who know a course often send out their horses well suited to it.
- A low win rate on this ground from 4 previous runs. The ground could work against the horse today.
- Last raced 39 days ago. That is a normal gap between runs.
TrackLab Insight
Yet the record is modest—one win from 11 races (9% win rate)—and the bigger concern is ground sensitivity: the horse has never won on soft or good ground in its career, winning only on the narrow band of good-to-soft conditions. Today's normal ground sits on the border of that sweet spot, but the pattern suggests this horse thrives on very specific surfaces.
2nd in the market (13/8)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £4.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- 8 runners today is a good number for this horse. The number of runners affects how a race is run.
- 17 days since the last run. That is a usual break, so there is nothing to read into it.
TrackLab Insight
Loulou Madrik is rated second-highest in the field at 107 but carries a glaring weakness: nine races, zero wins, three top-3 finishes. The editorial view backs this horse as 'the clear call' with a nine-pound rating advantage over the third-rated runner, yet the record suggests a horse that consistently reaches the finishing line in contention but has never found a way to cross it first. The most recent outing—seventh at Hexham just 17 days ago, beaten 37.8 lengths—is the worst result in a career already short on success, raising questions about whether this is the moment the horse breaks through or a sign momentum has shifted sharply the wrong way.
2nd highest rated (OR 107)
14
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £7.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- This is an 8-runner race, and the size suits this horse. Some horses prefer a small field with less traffic. Others do well in a crowd.
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- Has been off the track for 197 days. That is a long break. Some horses come back fresh. Others need a run to get fit again.
TrackLab Insight
Balking is eight years old with eight races and no wins to show for it, making this horse the definition of a runner that has tried hard but never quite delivered. The most recent form reads 4-8-2-9-5-11, a pattern of inconsistency that includes just one top-3 finish in that sequence, and the horse has been absent for 197 days—the second-longest lay-off in the field. If there was a breakthrough waiting, six months without racing would normally be a concerning barrier to overcome, not a help.
Relatively inexperienced (8 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £6.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- This is a Chase Turf race, and it suits this horse. Running in the right type of race matters.
- This is an 8-runner race, and the size suits this horse. Some horses prefer a small field with less traffic. Others do well in a crowd.
- There is little recent data for M. Walford's stable. It is hard to judge their current form.
TrackLab Insight
Empty Nest is an eight-year-old that has won twice from 23 races (roughly 1 in every 11 attempts) and has been away for 199 days—the longest absence in the entire field. The good news is both those wins arrived relatively recently and the horse has finished third at this very track and distance, suggesting capability at this level; the concern is that a near-200-day gap after a mild run suggests either injury recovery or simple loss of form. At OR 90, this horse is rated 15 pounds below My Friend Sean and carries the lightest handicap weight of the higher-rated runners.
Has won over this course and distance
Best record at this trip (1 from 6)
Absent 199 days (longest in field)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £8.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- This is a Chase Turf race, and it suits this horse. Running in the right type of race matters.
- Today's race is over 2m 4f. That distance looks right for this horse. Running over the right distance matters a lot.
- A 2.9% record at this course for M. Hammond. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
Aill Dubh is the lowest-rated horse in the field at OR 75 (20 pounds below average) and carries the lightest weight, but recent form shows genuine spark: a win at Cartmel 99 days ago followed by a fifth and a third suggest this nine-year-old is moving in the right direction. The career record of two wins from 18 races (roughly 1 in 9) is modest, but the sequence in the last six outings (3-5-1-4-4-1) shows the wins are coming, not fading. At 9/1, this horse offers the clearest mismatch between visible recent form and market price.
Lowest rated, 20lbs below average
Carries lowest weight in field
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £19.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- This type of ground has not suited the horse: 3 runs without much success. Some horses prefer different ground.
- This horse is suited to this Chase Turf race. A horse in its best type of race can just focus on running.
- The trainer's horses do not always finish their races. That raises questions about fitness and preparation.
TrackLab Insight
Uptown Harry is the most experienced runner in the field with 30 career races and three wins (10% win rate), but at 12 years old, this is a horse now in its veteran phase. The horse has pulled up at Perth most recently (187 days ago) and managed only a fourth-place finish at Carlisle in the run before that, suggesting form has deteriorated recently. A Class 2 win at Carlisle dating back to March 2023 shows this horse can operate at a decent level, but the form trajectory and age point toward a horse on the decline rather than one ready to surprise at an attractive price.
Most experienced (30 runs, field avg 16)
What the colours mean
40+ Very strong chance
20–39 Strong chance
12–19 Solid chance
6–11 Could surprise
Under 6 Long shot
Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
- Underrated horse
- We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
- Our top pick
- The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
- TrackLab Score
- Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
- Ground
- How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
- Race level (Class)
- From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
- Group, Grade and Listed
- The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
- Handicap
- The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
- Maiden
- A race for horses that haven't won yet.
- Novice
- A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
- Chase, hurdle and bumper
- Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
- Distance (m and f)
- m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
- Each way
- A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
- Weight
- How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
- Jockey claim
- An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
- Headgear
- Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.