Newcastle
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Sunday Lunch At The Border Minstrel Novices' Limited Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)
Starts in
2h 20min
Turf track
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score
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£1 wins £1.10 · 41 Very strong chance
J. Snowden wins 23.5% of their races at this course
41
Our top pick for this race
Very strong chance
Odds 11/10
£1 wins £1.10 · 41 Very strong chance
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £2.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- J. Snowden wins 23.5% of their races at this course. Some trainers aim horses at particular tracks, and this one does well here.
- J. Snowden has won 16.2% of their races in their career. Trainers at this level know how to get horses ready.
- G. Sheehan has a 17.0% overall win rate, which is lower than we would like to see. A jockey who wins less often can hold back even a good horse.
TrackLab Insight
The market favourite carries the best career win rate in the field at roughly 1 in 3 races, and he won at Hereford last month before that, suggesting he remains an active and competitive runner despite his 238-day absence. He has a 67% win rate on good ground (2 from 3), which aligns well with today's conditions, and he partners Gavin Sheehan at a 40% win rate together—the same win rate as Dunkerque's jockey. However, he is rated 11 lb lower than Dunkerque and hasn't raced over this distance on normal going before, which leaves some uncertainty about how he'll handle the marathon distance and terrain.
Absent 238 days (longest in field)
Best career win rate in field (1 in 3)
Market favourite (13/8)
2
Kent de Thaix
£1 wins £2.75 · 21 Strong chance
A 5-runner race works well for this horse
21
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £3.75 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A 5-runner race works well for this horse. The number of runners changes the pace and how much room a horse has.
- Today's race is over 2m 8½f. That distance looks right for this horse. Running over the right distance matters a lot.
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
TrackLab Insight
Kent De Thaix has been off the track for 193 days and arrives on the back of a poor sixth-place finish at Ayr, though a win at Wetherby just before that layoff hints at genuine ability waiting to be rediscovered. His career win rate of roughly 1 in 7 races is modest, and he carries 11 lb more than Rocheval despite being rated just 9 lb higher—a weight penalty that matters over this grueling distance. The wind surgery he has had suggests the yard believe there's improvement to unlock, but the long absence and recent form make him a difficult proposition here.
2nd highest rated (OR 122)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £5.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- 2m 8½f is a good distance for this horse. Over its best distance, it can run its own race.
- A 5-runner race works well for this horse. The number of runners changes the pace and how much room a horse has.
- A 4.8% record at this course for L. Russell & Michael Scudamore. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
Rocheval carries the lowest weight in the field but is also the lowest-rated runner here at 7 lb below the field average, and he has never raced on normal ground before—a significant unknown over this marathon distance. His record of 3 wins from 12 races (25% win rate) is respectable enough, but his last three recorded finishes show two fourth-place efforts and an unspecified result at Ayr 193 days ago, providing limited evidence of recent form. The fact that he partners a trainer-jockey combination with just a 6% win rate together (7 from 121) compounds the question marks around his chances.
Lowest rated, 7lbs below average
Carries lowest weight in field
Never raced on normal ground
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £5.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- 5 runners today is a good number for this horse. The number of runners affects how a race is run.
- J. Candlish has won 11.1% of their races in their career. Trainers at this level know how to get horses ready.
- A low win rate on this ground from 10 previous runs. The ground could work against the horse today.
TrackLab Insight
Top-rated by a full 10 lb margin over the field and the only horse with a course win here, Dunkerque has found his rhythm with three wins in his last six races—a run that suggests he's peaking at exactly the right moment. His record on good ground stands at 5 wins from 10 starts (50%), which is a genuine strength on this marathon 24-furlong test, and he carries the jockey Sean Quinlan with whom he has a 40% win rate together. The main concern is a bare record on softer ground (0 from 3), though today's normal conditions should suit him perfectly.
Top rated by 10lbs
Only course winner (1 from 1 here)
Best record on this ground (5 from 10)
Most experienced (20 runs, field avg 11)
12
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £7.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- This is a 5-runner race, and the size suits this horse. Some horses prefer a small field with less traffic. Others do well in a crowd.
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- A 4.8% record at this course for L. Russell & Michael Scudamore. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
Sleedagh has never won from eight races and is rated 18 lb below Dunkerque at the top of the market, making him a clear outsider in this five-runner field. His last two races at Perth show heavy defeats (beaten 23 and 27 lengths respectively), suggesting he is struggling to compete at this level. While he has picked up five top-3 finishes across his career, he offers little evidence to support him in a staying chase of this standard where class and stamina tend to tell.
Outsider at 17/2
What the colours mean
40+ Very strong chance
20–39 Strong chance
12–19 Solid chance
6–11 Could surprise
Under 6 Long shot
Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
- Underrated horse
- We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
- Our top pick
- The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
- TrackLab Score
- Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
- Ground
- How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
- Race level (Class)
- From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
- Group, Grade and Listed
- The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
- Handicap
- The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
- Maiden
- A race for horses that haven't won yet.
- Novice
- A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
- Chase, hurdle and bumper
- Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
- Distance (m and f)
- m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
- Each way
- A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
- Weight
- How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
- Jockey claim
- An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
- Headgear
- Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.