Newcastle
·
High Gosforth Park Golf Club Handicap Hurdle Race
Starts in
2h 31min
Turf track
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score
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Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £4.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- The Good ground works in this horse's favour. The ground makes a big difference in racing, and today it helps.
- Has won over this distance 2 times. We know the horse can last this far, which removes one big question.
- O. Greenall & Josh Guerriero has a 5.3% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
The market favourite at 10/3 with strong recent form—two seconds and a win in his last three outings—and he transforms on fast, dry ground with a 50% win rate (2 from 4) compared to a 14% overall record. Normal conditions here suit him well, and he's shown his best at this distance (2 from 7), though he's a complete non-runner on sharp left-handed tracks (0 from 9).
Best record at this trip (2 from 7)
3 straight top-3 finishes
Market favourite (10/3)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £6.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has yet to win over this distance. It is like asking a sprinter to run a marathon. Distance matters, and this horse has not shown it can win here.
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- W. Shanahan wins 5.9% of their races overall. That is below the average for professional jockeys.
TrackLab Insight
Second-highest rated but returns after 142 days away with zero wins from five career races and only one top-3 finish to show for it. The long absence combined with a winless record makes this a difficult puzzle to solve, even if the rating suggests some latent ability.
2nd highest rated (OR 94)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £5.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- S. Allwood wins 50% of their races at this course. Some trainers aim horses at particular tracks, and this one does well here.
- S. Allwood wins 6% of their races overall. That is below the top trainers.
TrackLab Insight
Winless from eight races but was only 4.5 lengths off the winner three weeks ago at Worcester—a recent near-miss that suggests some ability, though the lack of a jockey-trainer partnership history and bottom-tier form throughout his campaign raise questions about ceiling. This is his first outing with Brendan Powell.
Mid-range in the market (9/1)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £5.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- Racing against weaker rivals than last time. Think of a Premier League team playing in the Championship. The drop in level helps.
- A 0% record at this course for N. Richards. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
Zero wins and zero top-3 finishes from five races—the only horse in this field with that particular hole in her record. The 171-day absence before a pulled-up effort at Hexham further clouds the picture, though the market has backed her to 13/2 perhaps on the strength of her trainer Nicky Richards' powerful yard record.
2nd in the market (13/2)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £7.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Wins 20% of the time on this type of ground. Some horses run much better on soft or firm ground. This one suits today's ground.
- A. Nicol has won 11.1% of their races in their career. Trainers at this level know how to get horses ready.
- 1 win from 5 runs at this track. When a horse likes a course, it often runs well there again.
TrackLab Insight
The only course winner here (1 from 5 at Newcastle) with 34 career races—far more experienced than the field average—and has won twice in his last six outings, suggesting genuine form right now rather than decline. He suits distances over 2 miles and has a respectable 15% career win rate, though his long absence (199 days before his last run) and poor record on slow ground (0 from 5) are real constraints.
Only course winner (1 from 5 here)
Has won over this course and distance
Most experienced (34 runs, field avg 17)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £10.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Wins 25% of the time on this type of ground. Some horses run much better on soft or firm ground. This one suits today's ground.
- H. Reed wins 9.6% of all their races. That is a strong record. A jockey who wins often gives a horse a better chance.
- Only 8th last time out. That is not what we want to see before today's race.
TrackLab Insight
Top-rated by a significant margin and the only horse here with a win rate better than 1 in 6, but the market has drifted him to 20/1 despite that edge—perhaps spooked by three heavy defeats in his last three outings. He does have form on normal ground (2 wins from 8 races) and a strong partnership with Harry Reed (40% win rate together), though recent evidence suggests he's been outpaced at every outing since early October.
Top rated by 6lbs
Best record on this ground (2 from 8)
Best career win rate in field (1 in 6)
Unfancied in the market despite a high rating
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £9.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- B. Hughes wins 15.1% of all their races. That is a strong record. A jockey who wins often gives a horse a better chance.
- A 0% win rate at this course for B. Hughes. Jockeys who know a track well can pick the best ground and time their run.
- A 2.9% record at this course for M. Hammond. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
A modest record of 2 wins from 28 races (roughly 1 in 14) hides a sharp strength on normal/fast ground—he's won 1 from 3 on such conditions at a 33% win rate. However, he's shown nothing on slower ground (0 wins from 6) and has been struggling at this track type, so he'll need a dry day and his jockey Brian Hughes to be sharp.
One of the more successful in the field (2 career wins)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £15.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has raced 8 times on this ground with a low win rate. Today's ground may not suit it.
- N. Moscrop wins 20% of their races at this course. Knowing the track is an advantage for any jockey.
- S. Corbett has a 7% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
Winless from 17 races despite picking up five top-3 finishes—a record that speaks to a horse that runs consistently but cannot break through. At four years old he's also one of the youngest in the field, which may or may not be relevant depending on how you read his persistent inability to find the winner's enclosure.
Winless from 17 career races
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £15.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has raced 8 times on this ground with a low win rate. Today's ground may not suit it.
- Raced just 7 days ago. Running again quickly can show the trainer is happy with the horse, but tiredness is a risk.
- G. Boanas wins 7.8% of their races overall. That is below the top trainers.
TrackLab Insight
Winless from 24 races and returns just seven days after his last effort, a quick turnaround that suggests either desperation or a plan to catch the field while legs are fresh. Zero wins and seven top-3 finishes from his entire record puts him at the struggling end of this field, though at Class 4 he's at least competing at a level where he occasionally finishes in the frame.
Runs again after just 7 days
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £23.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- C. Bewley wins 6.7% of all their races. That is a strong record. A jockey who wins often gives a horse a better chance.
- An official rating of 85 is in this horse's favour. The rating comes from results, and this horse's number looks good.
- D. Bourke wins only 2.4% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
Making a racecourse debut at age six is highly unusual and leaves you with no form to assess whatsoever. The trainer has winners on the board this season, but stepping a 6-year-old into a competitive handicap hurdle field of 11 with zero prior experience is a significant gamble.
Racecourse debut
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £29.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A low win rate on this ground from 6 previous runs. The ground could work against the horse today.
- Racing against weaker rivals than last time. Think of a Premier League team playing in the Championship. The drop in level helps.
- E. Quayle wins 0% of their races overall. That is below the top trainers.
TrackLab Insight
Lowest-rated horse here (13 pounds below field average), carries the lightest weight (142lbs), and hasn't raced in 299 days—a combination that suggests minimal current fitness or appeal. Zero wins from nine races with only two top-3 finishes in total leaves little encouragement, and the length of absence is by far the longest in the field.
Lowest rated, 12lbs below average
Carries lowest weight in field
Absent 299 days (longest in field)
What the colours mean
40+ Very strong chance
20–39 Strong chance
12–19 Solid chance
6–11 Could surprise
Under 6 Long shot
Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
- Underrated horse
- We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
- Our top pick
- The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
- TrackLab Score
- Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
- Ground
- How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
- Race level (Class)
- From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
- Group, Grade and Listed
- The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
- Handicap
- The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
- Maiden
- A race for horses that haven't won yet.
- Novice
- A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
- Chase, hurdle and bumper
- Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
- Distance (m and f)
- m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
- Each way
- A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
- Weight
- How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
- Jockey claim
- An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
- Headgear
- Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.