Newcastle
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Mini Golf At High Gosforth Park Novices' Handicap Steeple Chase (Go North Forgive 'N Forget Series Qualifier)
Starts in
1h 15min
Turf track
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score
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Our top pick for this race
Strong chance
Odds 7/4
£1 wins £1.75 · 25 Strong chance
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £2.75 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Today's race is over 2m 8½f. That distance looks right for this horse. Running over the right distance matters a lot.
- Racing against weaker rivals than last time. Think of a Premier League team playing in the Championship. The drop in level helps.
- O. Greenall & Josh Guerriero wins only 5.3% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
The only horse in this field to have won at this distance, with a 25% win rate from four races, but that win came 220 days ago—the longest absence in the field—and the form either side (8th and 7th in class races) shows this is still a very raw prospect. If he's got his edge back after such a long break, he could surprise; if not, rustiness could be costly over nearly three miles.
Only winner at this distance
Absent 220 days (longest in field)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £3.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A 28.6% win rate at this course for C. Williams. Trainers who know a course often send out their horses well suited to it.
- This is a Chase Turf race, and it suits this horse. Running in the right type of race matters.
TrackLab Insight
Just won at Sedgefield nine days ago and shows genuine improvement across his last three runs, climbing from 5th to 3rd to 1st—the kind of rising curve you want to see in a marathon chase. He's rated 91 and rated second-best here, with solid form on good-to-yielding ground, but his pattern of struggling on left-handed galloping tracks and at this course before is worth weighing against recent sharpness.
2nd highest rated (OR 91)
£1 wins £2.50 · 20 Strong chance
S. Quinlan has won 10.3% of their races in their career
20
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £3.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- S. Quinlan has won 10.3% of their races in their career. That steady record counts for a lot.
- An 8-runner race works well for this horse. The number of runners changes the pace and how much room a horse has.
- A low win rate on this ground from 16 previous runs. The ground could work against the horse today.
TrackLab Insight
The real story here is course mastery: three wins from five runs at Newcastle puts him in rare company, and he's backing that up with three straight top-3 finishes including back-to-back wins at Southwell and Kelso in the last month. At 20% win rate overall from 30 races, he's the most accomplished and consistent horse in the field, though a concern about soft ground could matter if conditions deteriorate.
Only course winner (3 from 5 here)
Best record on this ground (4 from 16)
Most experienced (30 runs, field avg 15)
3 straight top-3 finishes
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £4.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A 2m 8½f race suits this horse well. When a horse is comfortable with the distance, it can settle into a good rhythm.
- This is an 8-runner race, and the size suits this horse. Some horses prefer a small field with less traffic. Others do well in a crowd.
- A 10.2% career win rate for D. Sayer. That is below the top trainers.
TrackLab Insight
Won at Kelso just three days ago after a four-year drought without a win, and the quick turnaround suggests the yard believes he's still got momentum—but at nine years old with only one win from 26 races, durability is the real question here. He can't handle soft ground in any form and has never won on anything tighter than a left-handed galloping track, which limits his options if conditions shift.
Runs again after just 3 days
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £9.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Today's race is over 2m 8½f. That distance looks right for this horse. Running over the right distance matters a lot.
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- J. Stephen wins 5.7% of their races overall. That is below the top trainers.
TrackLab Insight
Fifteen races without a win is a heavy burden for any horse, and despite two top-3 finishes suggesting some ability, the pattern is consistent underperformance at this level. Recent form is thin and poor (pulled up 197 days ago, then 6th and 5th in class races before that), and the data suggests this horse is struggling to find the form needed to trouble Newcastle's stronger runners.
Winless from 15 career races
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £9.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A 2m 8½f race suits this horse well. When a horse is comfortable with the distance, it can settle into a good rhythm.
- Has raced 9 times on this ground with a low win rate. Today's ground may not suit it.
- B. Poste wins 5.5% of their races overall. That is below the average for professional jockeys.
TrackLab Insight
The lowest-rated horse by 14 pounds and carries the lightest weight, but eleven races without a win—only two top-3 finishes to show—tells you he's outclassed here. Recent form of 5th, 5th, 5th is a red flag for a marathon trip, and pairing an inexperienced jockey-trainer combination with a horse this out of form is a significant concern.
Lowest rated, 14lbs below average
Carries lowest weight in field
What the colours mean
40+ Very strong chance
20–39 Strong chance
12–19 Solid chance
6–11 Could surprise
Under 6 Long shot
Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
- Underrated horse
- We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
- Our top pick
- The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
- TrackLab Score
- Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
- Ground
- How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
- Race level (Class)
- From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
- Group, Grade and Listed
- The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
- Handicap
- The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
- Maiden
- A race for horses that haven't won yet.
- Novice
- A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
- Chase, hurdle and bumper
- Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
- Distance (m and f)
- m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
- Each way
- A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
- Weight
- How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
- Jockey claim
- An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
- Headgear
- Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.