Newcastle
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Dogs Welcome At The Border Minstrel Pub Handicap Hurdle Race (Go North Sea Pigeon Series Qualifier)
Starts in
2h 50min
Turf track
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score
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1
North of Richmond
£1 wins £2 · 31 Strong chance
This is a 6-runner race, and the size suits this horse
31
Our top pick for this race
Strong chance
Odds 2/1
£1 wins £2 · 31 Strong chance
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £3.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- This is a 6-runner race, and the size suits this horse. Some horses prefer a small field with less traffic. Others do well in a crowd.
- K. Woods has a good 28.6% record here. Knowing the course is one of a jockey's biggest strengths.
- A. Hales wins only 0% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
Long absence (241 days) is his only real concern after nearly eight months away, though he arrives with a solid 29% win rate and an effective partnership with jockey Kielan Woods (40% together). Never raced on normal ground before, so this is uncharted territory—he's been a wet-ground specialist historically, which makes today's standard conditions a genuine unknown factor.
Never raced on normal ground
Absent 241 days (longest in field)
£1 wins £2.75 · 26 Strong chance
A low win rate on this ground from 7 previous runs
26
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £3.75 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A low win rate on this ground from 7 previous runs. The ground could work against the horse today.
- This is a 6-runner race, and the size suits this horse. Some horses prefer a small field with less traffic. Others do well in a crowd.
- D. McCain has a 0% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
Carries an underrated label and arrives in excellent sequence: three straight top-3 finishes including two at Stratford in the last three weeks. Win rate jumps to 25% on good-to-firm ground, and she's well suited by the long distance (2m+ races bring a 33% win rate), though today's normal ground is neutral territory and not her ideal fast surface.
3 straight top-3 finishes
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £4.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A 15.1% overall win rate for B. Hughes. Good jockeys make better decisions during a race.
- A 0% win rate at this course for B. Hughes. Jockeys who know a track well can pick the best ground and time their run.
- This type of ground has not suited the horse: 7 runs without much success. Some horses prefer different ground.
TrackLab Insight
Best win rate in the field at 33% (one in every three races) and comes to Newcastle as the market favourite after his recent Kelso victory 23 days ago. However, he's a course specialist who thrives at Kelso—Newcastle is a completely different test, and his form away from the Scottish track is much less convincing, with just one win from six races elsewhere.
Best career win rate in field (1 in 3)
Market favourite (5/2)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £8.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Wins 30% of the time on this type of ground. Some horses run much better on soft or firm ground. This one suits today's ground.
- This is a 6-runner race, and the size suits this horse. Some horses prefer a small field with less traffic. Others do well in a crowd.
- O. Pears has an 8.5% overall win rate, which is on the low side. That may mean the horse is not at its best.
TrackLab Insight
Most experienced in the field (41 races) but showing wear: no wins in six runs and hasn't beaten normal/good-to-firm/good-to-soft ground at all on record. Her only bright spot is a strong record over this 2m 1f trip (4 wins from 11), but her 4th-place finish nine days ago at Sedgefield suggests recent form is sliding.
Best record at this trip (4 from 11)
Most experienced (41 runs, field avg 22)
£1 wins £18 · 6 Could surprise
Handles this ground well, with 21% of its races won on it
6
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £19.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Handles this ground well, with 21% of its races won on it. The ground can change a horse's chances a lot.
- 6 runners today is a good number for this horse. The number of runners affects how a race is run.
TrackLab Insight
Nine-year-old carrying the editorial pick despite drifting to 15/1 and hasn't run since a pulled-up at Cartmel 121 days ago. Has genuine Class 2 wins on his record (Kempton, Aintree), but recent form is patchy and soft/good-to-soft ground (where he has poor records) is a real concern if conditions change—today's normal ground at least suits him better than the mud he historically struggles on.
One of the more successful in the field (6 career wins)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £13.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- 1 win at this race length. Distance matters. If it is too short, the horse cannot use its staying power. If it is too long, the horse gets tired.
- Today's ground is Good, and that suits this horse. Like athletes who prefer one type of surface, horses have favourite ground.
- L. Russell & Michael Scudamore wins only 4.8% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
Only course winner in the field (1 from 3 at Newcastle, including a victory over this exact distance in November 2024) but hampered by a 167-day absence and a modest 12% career win rate overall. At 5 years old she's the youngest and carries the lowest weight, yet limited recent data and two recent pulled-ups raise real questions about fitness and readiness after such a long break.
Lowest rated, 6lbs below average
Carries lowest weight in field
Only course winner (1 from 3 here)
Has won over this course and distance
What the colours mean
40+ Very strong chance
20–39 Strong chance
12–19 Solid chance
6–11 Could surprise
Under 6 Long shot
Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
- Underrated horse
- We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
- Our top pick
- The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
- TrackLab Score
- Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
- Ground
- How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
- Race level (Class)
- From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
- Group, Grade and Listed
- The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
- Handicap
- The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
- Maiden
- A race for horses that haven't won yet.
- Novice
- A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
- Chase, hurdle and bumper
- Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
- Distance (m and f)
- m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
- Each way
- A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
- Weight
- How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
- Jockey claim
- An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
- Headgear
- Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.