Newcastle
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Border Minstrel Dog Friendly Pub Maiden Hurdle Race (Go North Night Nurse Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)
Starts in
45min
Turf track
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score
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Our top pick for this race
Very strong chance
Odds 4/9
£1 wins 44p · 68 Very strong chance
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.44 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- 6 runners today is a good number for this horse. The number of runners affects how a race is run.
- Finished 13th last time, which was a disappointing run. A poor last run raises questions about the horse's current form.
TrackLab Insight
Wilde's Legacy is the market favourite at 8/15 and for good reason: 2 wins from 3 races gives a striking 67% win rate, and both victories came in Class 5 company at Lingfield and Huntingdon. The concern is his most recent run 230 days ago at Cheltenham, where he finished 13th—a significant step backwards that raises questions about his current readiness.
Lightly raced (3 career races)
Market favourite (8/15)
3
My Mate Aj
£1 wins £1.75 · 28 Strong chance
K. Woods wins 28.6% of their races at this course
28
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £2.75 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- K. Woods wins 28.6% of their races at this course. Knowing the track is an advantage for any jockey.
- B. Pauling has won 15.2% of their races in their career. Trainers at this level know how to get horses ready.
- 281 days without racing. A long break can be a worry, as it takes time to rebuild fitness.
TrackLab Insight
My Mate AJ arrives with minimal form data—just 2 career races for zero wins—but has never raced on normal ground before, making this a genuine unknown. The yard behind him (Ben Pauling) knows how to train winners, yet the horse's recent fourth and third-place finishes offer limited evidence of ability at this level.
Never raced on normal ground
Lightly raced (2 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £67.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- 6 runners today is a good number for this horse. The number of runners affects how a race is run.
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- C. Grant wins only 2.2% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
Captain Ted has only raced twice in his life with zero wins, and he's been absent from the track for nearly a year—the longest layoff in this field by a huge margin. Returning after 373 days is a massive ask, especially in a competitive hurdle race where match fitness matters enormously.
Lightly raced (2 career races)
Absent 373 days (longest in field)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £101.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A 6-runner race works well for this horse. The number of runners changes the pace and how much room a horse has.
- With 69 races behind it, this horse knows what to expect. Experienced runners tend to cope better with pressure.
- Only 9th last time out. That is not what we want to see before today's race.
TrackLab Insight
At 7 years old and 69 races deep, Come On John is by far the most experienced horse here, but experience alone doesn't win races—and his record proves it: 6 wins in 69 outings is roughly 1 in 11, a modest return. He has never won at Newcastle in 9 previous attempts and has a blank record on all ground types tested here.
Best record on this ground (1 from 8)
Most experienced (69 runs, field avg 14)
1
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £34.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- This is a 6-runner race, and the size suits this horse. Some horses prefer a small field with less traffic. Others do well in a crowd.
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- A 4.8% career win rate for L. Noreci. That is on the low side and could matter today.
TrackLab Insight
Champagne Powder holds the best win rate in the field at roughly 1 in 8 races, and he showed promising form two races back with a second place; however, his last two outings have been fifth-place finishes, suggesting a dip in form. He's run only 8 races total and has never won on normal ground, making this conditions unknown territory.
Best career win rate in field (1 in 8)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £81.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- 6 runners today is a good number for this horse. The number of runners affects how a race is run.
- Has not won at this distance before. We do not know if the race length suits the horse.
- Not rated highly by the official rater. The rating reflects what the horse has done so far, and it is modest.
TrackLab Insight
Mac's Max ran just 15 days ago and is the most recently active horse in the field, but his form is mixed at best: 0 wins from 4 races with a second place sandwiched between two unplaced efforts. He has never raced on normal ground either, so combined with his blank record and recent poor form, he looks vulnerable here.
Never raced on normal ground
What the colours mean
40+ Very strong chance
20–39 Strong chance
12–19 Solid chance
6–11 Could surprise
Under 6 Long shot
Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
- Underrated horse
- We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
- Our top pick
- The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
- TrackLab Score
- Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
- Ground
- How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
- Race level (Class)
- From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
- Group, Grade and Listed
- The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
- Handicap
- The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
- Maiden
- A race for horses that haven't won yet.
- Novice
- A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
- Chase, hurdle and bumper
- Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
- Distance (m and f)
- m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
- Each way
- A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
- Weight
- How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
- Jockey claim
- An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
- Headgear
- Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.