Newcastle
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AWC Season 14 Has Begun Handicap (Div 1)
Starts in
34h 24min
Tapeta surface
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score
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40+ Very strong chance
20–39 Strong chance
12–19 Solid chance
6–11 Could surprise
Under 6 Long shot
Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
- Underrated horse
- We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
- Our top pick
- The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
- TrackLab Score
- Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
- Ground
- How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
- Race level (Class)
- From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
- Group, Grade and Listed
- The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
- Handicap
- The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
- Maiden
- A race for horses that haven't won yet.
- Novice
- A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
- Chase, hurdle and bumper
- Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
- Distance (m and f)
- m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
- Each way
- A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
- Weight
- How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
- Jockey claim
- An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
- Headgear
- Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- C. Lee has a good 12.1% record here. Knowing the course is one of a jockey's biggest strengths.
- H. Palmer wins 41.2% of their races at this course. Some trainers aim horses at particular tracks, and this one does well here.
- 1 win from 2 runs at this track. When a horse likes a course, it often runs well there again.
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A 12.0% overall win rate for D. O'Meara. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
- Racing against weaker rivals than last time. Think of a Premier League team playing in the Championship. The drop in level helps.
- A 12-runner race works against this horse. Too many runners can mean getting boxed in. Too few can mean nowhere to hide.
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has won here 2 times in 4 visits. That record at this course is a good sign.
- A. Mullen wins 8.0% of all their races. That is a strong record. A jockey who wins often gives a horse a better chance.
- The trainer's horses do not always finish their races. That raises questions about fitness and preparation.
£1 wins 10p · 9 Could surprise
I. Furtado wins 100% of their races at this course
9
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- I. Furtado wins 100% of their races at this course. Some trainers aim horses at particular tracks, and this one does well here.
- A 9.2% overall win rate for I. Furtado. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
- This trainer's horses often do not finish their races. That makes them harder to trust.
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.11 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- An average finish of 1.7 over the last three races. Finishing near the front this often is a good sign.
- A 17.8% win rate at this course for M. Ghiani. Jockeys who know a track well can pick the best ground and time their run.
- T. Carroll has a 0% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has won 1 time over this distance. That is a good sign the race length suits the horse.
- Facing weaker rivals than last time out. When a horse drops to an easier race, it often finds things easier.
- A. Brown has a 7% overall win rate, which is on the low side. That may mean the horse is not at its best.
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has run 2 times at this track with no wins yet. Some horses do not take to some courses.
- Has yet to win over this distance. It is like asking a sprinter to run a marathon. Distance matters, and this horse has not shown it can win here.
- A 12-runner race works against this horse. Too many runners can mean getting boxed in. Too few can mean nowhere to hide.
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.11 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A 9.8% win rate at this course for P. Mulrennan. Jockeys who know a track well can pick the best ground and time their run.
- Facing weaker rivals than last time out. When a horse drops to an easier race, it often finds things easier.
- Has a hood on today, which may mean the horse needs help to stay calm. That is a question mark over its temperament.
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Finished 1st in the last race, which is a good result. A good last run suggests the horse is in good shape.
- A prize fund of £3,716 is healthy. When trainers aim at valuable races, they usually have faith in their runner.
- An 8.1% record at this course for M. Appleby. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- The ground works in this horse's favour. The ground makes a big difference in racing, and today it helps.
- With £3,716 in prize money, this is a competitive race. The horse has been entered for a reason.
- A 0% record at this course for P. Morris. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.11 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- 270 days without racing. A long break can be a worry, as it takes time to rebuild fitness.
- Dropped to an easier race today. It is like being the big fish in a smaller pond. The lower standard should suit.
- S. Spencer wins only 5.1% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.11 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- G. Tuer has a good 33.3% record here. A trainer who does well at one course is worth noting.
- No wins at this distance yet. We cannot tell if the race is too long, too short or just right.
- An 11.7% record at this course for O. Stammers. Some jockeys just do not do well at some courses.