Dundalk

This horse has form over today's course and distance, winning here before, and on the normal surface that Dundalk provides, he has a genuinely strong record — winning roughly 1 in 3 races on it. A near-miss at Leopardstown 88 days ago shows ability, though a distant fifth at Listowel six weeks ago and 42 days off the track are mild concerns. One of the more interesting each-way chances in the field.

Like Rising Sky, this horse races again after just one day — finishing fifth at Limerick yesterday — which is an unusual pattern that raises obvious freshness concerns. He did win at Dundalk 47 days ago, which is a positive, and on the normal polytrack surface he wins roughly 1 in 8, which is above his overall average. But 40 career races at a win rate of 1 in every 13 tells you this is a horse more likely to fill a midfield spot than threaten for the prize.

The market has well and truly turned its back on Dancing Steve, whose odds have ballooned from near-favourite to a big outsider, and the recent form gives you a reason why — three consecutive last-place finishes. His best form has come on good ground at shorter distances than today's mile and a half, and he has never won at Dundalk in six attempts. Hard to make a case for him here.

Our selection, but the last two runs — finishing 15th and 16th — make for uncomfortable reading, and his odds drifting to 19/1 suggests the market shares that concern. What keeps the case alive is that both his career wins have come at Dundalk, and on this surface he wins roughly 1 in 6 races, which is well above his overall average. The editorial case rests on his progressive profile and fitness edge from running just nine days ago rather than anything from those recent outings.

Eleven races without a win and only one place finish across her whole career — and she has never raced on normal ground before, making today's polytrack surface a complete unknown for her. The rating of 50 leaves her fully 11 pounds below the field average, the second-biggest deficit here, which means she is carrying less weight but is also officially judged well below most rivals. The data offers very little to build a positive case around.

Back for another race just five days after finishing 11th at Tramore, and with 28 races producing only a single win, this is a horse that has made a habit of finishing just off the pace without converting. More damaging still, he has never won at Dundalk in 14 attempts — the most of any horse in this field — and has never won on the normal surface Dundalk's polytrack provides. The data makes it very difficult to find a positive angle.

Racing for the second time in two days, having finished seventh at Navan yesterday, which is an extremely quick turnaround and a significant fitness question. On paper the mile-and-a-half trip suits — winning 1 in 4 races at this distance — but the back-to-back scheduling and a new jockey who has never partnered this horse before make this a tough race to take seriously. Hard to recommend at 26/1 with those unknowns stacking up.

The best career win rate in this field at roughly 1 in 6, and a recent win at Wexford 46 days ago gives him genuine current form to bring here. The big question mark is that he has never raced on normal ground — every run in his 38-race career has come on a different surface — so today is genuinely uncharted territory for him. At 26/1, the market isn't convinced, but his consistency over a long career earns him respect.