Paddy Harnett

Last year, Harnett was winning just 3 in every 100 races he rode in. This season, that number has jumped to 9% — roughly 1 in every 11 rides ending in a winner. That might not sound dramatic in isolation, but tripling your win rate in a single season is exactly the kind of leap that gets people in racing talking. Fifteen winners from 164 rides this season is a solid body of work, and the direction of travel matters as much as the destination.

His most important professional relationship is with trainer Donnacha Aidan O'Brien, and the numbers there are even sharper. From 51 rides together, Harnett has won 6 times — a win rate of 12%, or roughly 1 in every 8 or 9 races. When a trainer keeps putting you up on their horses at that kind of frequency, it means something. It means trust, and trust in this sport is earned slowly.

Two tracks stand out on Harnett's record. At The Curragh — Ireland's most prestigious flat racing venue and the track where reputations are genuinely made — he has turned 3 winners from 18 rides, a rate that punches above his overall average. Ride well at The Curragh often enough and the right people notice. He also performs particularly well when the ground is wet and muddy, winning 2 of his 12 races in those conditions — a 17% win rate that suggests he either rides soft ground exceptionally well or has developed an eye for placing himself on the right horses when the rain comes.

Harnett is still early in his career and 35 winners over four years is a modest total by any measure — but the arc matters more than the number right now. The improvement is real, the partnership with a top yard is growing, and he is beginning to show a knack for the bigger stages. He is, in short, a jockey to start watching before everyone else does.