Down Royal
·
Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden Hurdle
Starts in
12h 56min
Turf track
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score
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£1 wins 33p · 61 Very strong chance
J. Kennedy wins 30.9% of their races at this course
61
Our top pick for this race
Very strong chance
Odds 1/3
£1 wins 33p · 61 Very strong chance
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.33 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- J. Kennedy wins 30.9% of their races at this course. Knowing the track is an advantage for any jockey.
- A 20.8% win rate at this course for G. Elliott. Trainers who know a course often send out their horses well suited to it.
- This trainer's horses often do not finish their races. That makes them harder to trust.
TrackLab Insight
Market favourite at 1/4 with a 40% win rate (2 wins from 5 races), the best win rate in the field and a sharp recent form line. The major concern is the 184-day absence — by far the longest break in this field — which raises questions about readiness after such a long time away.
Absent 184 days (longest in field)
Best career win rate in field (1 in 2)
Market favourite (1/4)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £5.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- G. Elliott wins 20.8% of their races at this course. Some trainers aim horses at particular tracks, and this one does well here.
- G. Elliott wins 15.2% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
- The trainer's horses do not always finish their races. That raises questions about fitness and preparation.
TrackLab Insight
Another Gordon Elliott debutant with no prior form to assess. By Poet's Word out of a Beneficial mare, the pedigree offers some jumping potential, but a racecourse debut on soft ground at 2m 6f remains entirely unpredictable.
Racecourse debut
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £8.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- P. J. Rothwell wins 5.3% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
- A 2m 6½f race suits this horse well. When a horse is comfortable with the distance, it can settle into a good rhythm.
- P. J. Rothwell wins only 6.8% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
Won one of just two races (50% win rate) and finished finished in the top 3 in the other, showing genuine early ability despite the small sample size. However, the horse has never tackled soft ground and faces a significant step up in class here — the recent third-place finish at Listowel came on much firmer conditions, so soft ground at Down Royal is an unknown.
Never raced on soft ground
Lightly raced (2 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £13.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Today's race is over 2m 6½f. That distance looks right for this horse. Running over the right distance matters a lot.
- The Yielding ground works in this horse's favour. The ground makes a big difference in racing, and today it helps.
- W. Harvey wins only 0% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
Still searching for a breakthrough after one race without a win or place finish. With no experience on soft ground and only one outing under his belt, there's too little evidence to suggest he's ready to break through at this level.
Never raced on soft ground
Lightly raced (1 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £21.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A 15.2% overall win rate for G. Elliott. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
- G. Elliott wins 20.8% of their races at this course. Some trainers aim horses at particular tracks, and this one does well here.
- Not rated highly by the official rater. The rating reflects what the horse has done so far, and it is modest.
TrackLab Insight
Making his racecourse debut at age 5, which is relatively late to be stepping out for the first time. Trained by Gordon Elliott, whose jockey-trainer partnership has a strong record, but a debut on soft ground is a genuine shot in the dark with nothing on paper to go on.
Racecourse debut
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £81.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A 2m 6½f race suits this horse well. When a horse is comfortable with the distance, it can settle into a good rhythm.
- A 3.3% win rate at this course for N. C. Kelly. Trainers who know a course often send out their horses well suited to it.
- Ms E. Dunseath wins 0% of their races overall. That is below the average for professional jockeys.
TrackLab Insight
Seven-year-old with two races and zero wins or top-3 finishes — finished ninth and eighth in recent outings, well beaten on both occasions. At this age with this record, soft ground is unlikely to change a pattern of finishing well off the pace.
Never raced on soft ground
Lightly raced (2 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £81.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Today's race is over 2m 6½f. That distance looks right for this horse. Running over the right distance matters a lot.
- 179 days without racing. A long break can be a worry, as it takes time to rebuild fitness.
- R. K. Watson wins 2.5% of their races overall. That is below the top trainers.
TrackLab Insight
Four-year-old on debut yesterday, finishing 11th at Down Royal — the same course as today. One race is not enough to judge, but he was soundly beaten and has never raced on soft ground, so improvement would need to be sharp.
Never raced on soft ground
Lightly raced (1 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £67.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- 2m 6½f is a good distance for this horse. Over its best distance, it can run its own race.
- This horse is happy on Yielding ground. When the ground suits, a horse can run to its best.
- A 4.8% career win rate for C. A. McBratney. That is below the top trainers.
TrackLab Insight
Making her racecourse debut at age 6, which is highly unusual and raises questions about what has kept her off the track for so long. By Shirocco, she carries jumping pedigree, but a debut at this age on soft ground over 2m 6f is impossible to predict.
Racecourse debut
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £81.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A 2m 6½f race suits this horse well. When a horse is comfortable with the distance, it can settle into a good rhythm.
- Today's ground is Yielding, and that suits this horse. Like athletes who prefer one type of surface, horses have favourite ground.
- H. Paul Finegan wins 4.8% of their races overall. That is below the top trainers.
TrackLab Insight
Seven years old and still a racecourse debutant — an extremely unusual career profile that suggests significant previous issues or concerns. The horse has never raced on soft ground and no form exists to assess, making this outing almost entirely speculative.
Never raced on soft ground
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £67.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- Today's race is over 2m 6½f. That distance looks right for this horse. Running over the right distance matters a lot.
- C. A. McBratney has a 4.8% overall win rate, which is on the low side. That may mean the horse is not at its best.
TrackLab Insight
Four-year-old filly with nine races and zero wins, though she has picked up three top-3 finishes — most recently a seventh at Fairyhouse just days ago. The pattern suggests a horse operating below the level where wins come regularly, and soft ground is unlikely to change that.
Outsider at 150/1
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £101.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Today's race is over 2m 6½f. That distance looks right for this horse. Running over the right distance matters a lot.
- Today's ground is Yielding, and that suits this horse. Like athletes who prefer one type of surface, horses have favourite ground.
- R. K. Watson wins 2.5% of their races overall. That is below the top trainers.
TrackLab Insight
Making her racecourse debut with no prior form to guide expectations. By Valirann out of a Classic Cliche mare, she carries some bloodline promise, but stepping onto a track for the first time on soft ground over 2m 6f leaves everything to chance.
Racecourse debut
What the colours mean
40+ Very strong chance
20–39 Strong chance
12–19 Solid chance
6–11 Could surprise
Under 6 Long shot
Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
- Underrated horse
- We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
- Our top pick
- The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
- TrackLab Score
- Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
- Ground
- How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
- Race level (Class)
- From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
- Group, Grade and Listed
- The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
- Handicap
- The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
- Maiden
- A race for horses that haven't won yet.
- Novice
- A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
- Chase, hurdle and bumper
- Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
- Distance (m and f)
- m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
- Each way
- A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
- Weight
- How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
- Jockey claim
- An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
- Headgear
- Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.