Down Royal
·
Metcollect Handicap Steeplechase
Starts in
15h 4min
Turf track
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score
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Our top pick for this race
Strong chance
Odds 11/4
£1 wins £2.75 · 22 Strong chance
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £3.75 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Finishing 1st last time is encouraging. A horse that finishes well is usually in good shape.
- This horse is suited to this Chase Turf race. A horse in its best type of race can just focus on running.
- The fences are a worry. A horse that jumps badly wastes energy and can fall behind.
TrackLab Insight
This market favourite has won two of three races with three consecutive top-3 finishes, which is an eye-catching record that explains the short price at 9/4. A critical uncertainty clouds the picture: he has never raced on soft ground, so the track conditions here represent a significant unknown for a horse whose entire record has come on faster surfaces.
Never raced on soft ground
Lightly raced (3 career races)
3 straight top-3 finishes
Market favourite (9/4)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £5.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- This horse is suited to this Chase Turf race. A horse in its best type of race can just focus on running.
- Has not won at this distance before. We do not know if the race length suits the horse.
- There is little recent data for B. Connell's stable. It is hard to judge their current form.
TrackLab Insight
Farrokh has found his rhythm lately with two wins in his last six races, most recently landing a victory at Tramore just 22 days ago, and the recent run suggests he is peaking. A significant concern: he has never won on right-handed galloping tracks, and Down Royal is exactly that, which casts real doubt over his chances here despite the positive form.
One of the more successful in the field (3 career wins)
3
Manoir de Mirande
£1 wins £4 · 17 Solid chance
Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice
17
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £5.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- J. Kennedy wins 30.9% of their races at this course. Knowing the track is an advantage for any jockey.
- Last raced 20 days ago. That is a normal gap between runs.
TrackLab Insight
This 4-year-old is top-rated by 5 pounds and arrives here having just won at Fairyhouse 20 days ago, showing genuine upward momentum with three wins from his last six races. That said, a fall at Kilbeggan 56 days ago is a reminder of the perils of chase racing, and soft ground may not play to his strengths given his best form comes on faster surfaces.
Top rated by 5lbs
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £8.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- H. de Bromhead has a good 22% record here. A trainer who does well at one course is worth noting.
- Last raced 40 days ago. That is a normal gap between runs.
TrackLab Insight
Costacurta has raced just nine times and won only once, suggesting he is still learning his trade and lacking the sharpness of more experienced rivals. His recent form is uninspiring—a distant seventh at Listowel 40 days ago follows a pattern of modest efforts, and soft ground may not be his cup of tea given his best efforts have come on faster surfaces.
Relatively inexperienced (9 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £9.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- A Chase Turf race works in this horse's favour. Horses often do best in one type of race and struggle in others.
- Has not raced for 92 days. That is a long time away, and we cannot be sure the horse will be fit enough.
TrackLab Insight
Court Canyon owns the best win rate in this field at roughly 1 in every 3.5 races, and has already beaten this lot once here at Down Royal 179 days ago. However, a long absence and a well-beaten fifth at Galway 92 days ago raises questions about whether he's as sharp as that record suggests, especially returning to a course where he thrives on good ground but is now racing on soft.
Best career win rate in field (1 in 4)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £9.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- This type of ground has not suited the horse: 4 runs without much success. Some horses prefer different ground.
- Rated 109 by the official rater. That is a strong number based on past results.
- S. Joanna Connell has a 0% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
Claude was in the winner's circle at Cork just 19 days ago and has the best record at this two-mile trip of any runner with a win, suggesting he deserves respect. However, his form is choppy—a heavy 7th at Killarney just days after his win is a warning sign—and he struggles completely on yielding ground, which may be a factor depending on exact conditions.
Best record at this trip (1 from 4)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £15.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has raced 3 times on this ground with a low win rate. Today's ground may not suit it.
- A Chase Turf race works in this horse's favour. Horses often do best in one type of race and struggle in others.
- S. R. B. Crawford wins only 6.5% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
Takenasred is winless from 12 career races but has finished in the money four times as a reliable place-getter, which is all the horse has to offer in terms of expectations. At eight years old running at his home track, he carries the added concern of never having won here in five attempts despite that familiarity.
Winless from 12 career races
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £15.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- With 41 races behind it, this horse knows what to expect. Experienced runners tend to cope better with pressure.
- A Chase Turf race works in this horse's favour. Horses often do best in one type of race and struggle in others.
- D. Collins wins only 0% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
This 10-year-old mare carries the lowest weight in the field and has a proven record on soft ground with a win from 8 attempts on this surface, an edge over most rivals. Her significant experience (41 races) and recent top-3 finish at Tramore offer some positives, but current form is weak and she is rated 17 pounds below the field average for good reason—few expect a breakthrough at this stage of her career.
Lowest rated, 17lbs below average
Carries lowest weight in field
Most experienced (41 runs, field avg 18)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £21.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- An official rating of 100 is in this horse's favour. The rating comes from results, and this horse's number looks good.
- The Yielding ground works in this horse's favour. The ground makes a big difference in racing, and today it helps.
- J. J Cullen has a 0% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
Phoenix Arizona landed just his single career win at Ballinrobe four weeks ago after a long drought, but a recent thumping at Cork—beaten 37 lengths—suggests that breakthrough may have been an outlier rather than a new level. His best record on soft ground (1 win from 3 starts) is a positive note, but seven wins from 15 races overall tells the larger story of a horse struggling for consistency.
Best record on this ground (1 from 3)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £23.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has raced 5 times on this ground with a low win rate. Today's ground may not suit it.
- This horse is suited to this Chase Turf race. A horse in its best type of race can just focus on running.
- P. Cluskey has a 1.3% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
This seven-year-old has been absent for 100 days—the longest absence in the field—and arrives with a poor record overall: just three wins from 35 races. More troubling is his complete inability on soft ground (0 wins from 6 attempts on this surface), making his task here extremely difficult despite a recent return to action.
Absent 100 days (longest in field)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £29.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- An official rating of 99 is in this horse's favour. The rating comes from results, and this horse's number looks good.
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- C. Monaghan has a 3% overall win rate, which is lower than we would like to see. A jockey who wins less often can hold back even a good horse.
TrackLab Insight
Kalsman has won at Down Royal before, giving him at least one positive reference point, but a six-month drought without victory and poor recent form—including a pulled-up finish at Sligo 30 days ago—suggest he is not well-weighted to reverse that trend here. His overall record of 2 wins from 32 races speaks to a horse that rarely delivers on race day.
One of few course winners (1 wins here)
What the colours mean
40+ Very strong chance
20–39 Strong chance
12–19 Solid chance
6–11 Could surprise
Under 6 Long shot
Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
- Underrated horse
- We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
- Our top pick
- The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
- TrackLab Score
- Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
- Ground
- How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
- Race level (Class)
- From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
- Group, Grade and Listed
- The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
- Handicap
- The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
- Maiden
- A race for horses that haven't won yet.
- Novice
- A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
- Chase, hurdle and bumper
- Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
- Distance (m and f)
- m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
- Each way
- A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
- Weight
- How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
- Jockey claim
- An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
- Headgear
- Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.