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Down Royal

·
Bottlegreen Hurdle (Listed)
Starts in
14h 31min
Jumps race · low hurdles Underrated horse: El Cairos About 2.1 miles Slightly soft ground Elite-level race 6 runners £15,000 prize money E/W: also pays on 2nd, at 1/4 odds
Turf track
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score

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3 Mange Tout
J. Kennedy · G. Elliott · 4yo · 11st 6lb · Official rating 138
£1 wins £1.63 · 33 Strong chance
6 runners today is a good number for this horse
C&D Headgear
33
Our top pick for this race
Strong chance
Odds 13/8
£1 wins £1.63 · 33 Strong chance
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £2.63 back.

How odds work
✓ Field size ✓ Jockey wins at this course ✓ Trainer wins at this course
Has won at this course and distance Wearing hood Back after 204 days off Won 3 of last 5 Won here 1 time
Why this score
  • 6 runners today is a good number for this horse. The number of runners affects how a race is run.
  • J. Kennedy has a good 30.9% record here. Knowing the course is one of a jockey's biggest strengths.
  • Has won 1 time at this course from 1 run. A horse that has won here before may like the course.
TrackLab Insight
The market favourite at 11/8 with an exceptional 75% win rate from four races—a record almost unheard of in a four-year-old. She has won over this exact course and distance and won last time at Aintree 204 days ago, though the long absence since that victory is worth noting.
Has won over this course and distance Market favourite (11/8)
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £3.00 back.

How odds work
Has won at this course and distance Won 0 of last 5 Won here 1 time Won at this distance 1 time
Why this score
  • This is a 6-runner race, and the size suits this horse. Some horses prefer a small field with less traffic. Others do well in a crowd.
  • N. Meade wins 13.0% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
  • Has won here 1 time in 1 visit. That record at this course is a good sign.
TrackLab Insight
By far the most experienced runner with 19 races under his belt, and he has won at Down Royal before on heavy ground—conditions that suit him at 33% win rate. However, he finished 8th just 33 days ago and his form has been stalled since his last win eleven months ago, raising doubt about whether his best days are behind him.
Has won over this course and distance Most experienced (19 runs, field avg 9)
Underrated horse

We think it's more likely to win than the odds suggest, so if it wins, it pays more than it should. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £5.00 back.

How odds work
Stepping up to a harder race Wearing tongue strap Won 1 of last 5
Why this score
  • This type of ground has not suited the horse: 3 runs without much success. Some horses prefer different ground.
  • A 6-runner race works well for this horse. The number of runners changes the pace and how much room a horse has.
  • 27 days since the last run. That is a usual break, so there is nothing to read into it.
TrackLab Insight
Top-rated horse in the field by 4lbs and the only runner with a win rate above 1 in 3, but he's coming down two class levels which raises questions about whether he belongs in Listed company. He won last time out 27 days ago at Gowran Park, though his record on soft ground is a glaring problem—0 wins from 6 starts on wet or yielding conditions.
Top rated by 4lbs Drops 2 classes from usual level Best career win rate in field (1 in 3)
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £9.50 back.

How odds work
Wearing hood Won 0 of last 5
Why this score
  • Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
  • This is a 6-runner race, and the size suits this horse. Some horses prefer a small field with less traffic. Others do well in a crowd.
  • 35 days since the last run. That is a usual break, so there is nothing to read into it.
TrackLab Insight
Matched El Cairos's win rate at 1 in 3 from seven races, but his recent form has slid badly—just one top-3 finish in his last three runs, most recently 6th at Listowel 35 days ago. Limited data makes it hard to assess whether this is a temporary dip or a real decline in form.
Top-3 finishes in 2 of last 3 races
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £19.00 back.

How odds work
Back after 279 days off Won 1 of last 5 Won at this distance 1 time
Why this score
  • 6 runners today is a good number for this horse. The number of runners affects how a race is run.
  • J. McConnell wins 6.9% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
  • A 6.6% record at this course for J. McConnell. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
Back after a 279-day absence, the longest break in the field, which is a significant concern for his sharpness after nine months away. His record is steady rather than exceptional at 1 win in 4.5 races, and he has never won on left-handed galloping tracks like Down Royal.
Absent 279 days (longest in field)
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £26.00 back.

How odds work
Back after 184 days off Won 1 of last 5
Why this score
  • This type of ground has not suited the horse: 3 runs without much success. Some horses prefer different ground.
  • This is a 6-runner race, and the size suits this horse. Some horses prefer a small field with less traffic. Others do well in a crowd.
  • There is little recent data for J. Williamson. Without enough rides, it is hard to judge their form.
TrackLab Insight
Outsider at 18/1 with the poorest win record in the field at 1 in 7 races, though he did win at Leopardstown 241 days ago. His consistency is his only plus—six top-3 finishes in seven races—but he has no wins on yielding ground and the gap between his form level and this Listed race is substantial.
Outsider at 18/1
What the colours mean
40+ Very strong chance 20–39 Strong chance 12–19 Solid chance 6–11 Could surprise Under 6 Long shot Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.

What these words mean

Underrated horse
We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
Our top pick
The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
TrackLab Score
Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
Ground
How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
Race level (Class)
From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
Group, Grade and Listed
The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
Handicap
The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
Maiden
A race for horses that haven't won yet.
Novice
A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
Chase, hurdle and bumper
Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
Distance (m and f)
m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
Each way
A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
Weight
How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
Jockey claim
An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
Headgear
Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.
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