Down Royal
·
WTW Willis Flat Race
Starts in
16h 16min
Turf track
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score
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£1 wins 73p · 51 Very strong chance
Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice
51
Our top pick for this race
Very strong chance
Odds 8/11
£1 wins 73p · 51 Very strong chance
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.73 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- G. Elliott wins 20.8% of their races at this course. Some trainers aim horses at particular tracks, and this one does well here.
- Not rated highly by the official rater. The rating reflects what the horse has done so far, and it is modest.
TrackLab Insight
Market favourite with an unusual record: three races, three top-3 finishes, but no wins—a pattern suggesting he finds one horse he cannot pass in every race. Last raced 182 days ago (over six months), so the long break combined with soft ground (which he has never encountered) presents real unknowns despite his consistent podium finishes.
Lightly raced (3 career races)
Market favourite (10/11)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £7.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Finished 2nd in the last race, which is a good result. A good last run suggests the horse is in good shape.
- A weight of 161 lbs is manageable. A lighter load helps in the closing stages.
- A 5.4% career win rate for Mr S. Connor. That is on the low side and could matter today.
TrackLab Insight
Has raced just once in his entire career, finishing second at Leopardstown over 10 months ago, and is returning from a 91-day absence—a considerable layoff for a horse with minimal racing experience. Never tested on soft ground and the complete lack of recent form makes this a genuine unknown quantity at this stage.
Never raced on soft ground
Lightly raced (1 career races)
Absent 306 days (longest in field)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £8.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- D. K. Weld wins 19.3% of their races at this course. Some trainers aim horses at particular tracks, and this one does well here.
- Has yet to win over this distance. It is like asking a sprinter to run a marathon. Distance matters, and this horse has not shown it can win here.
- D. K. Weld wins only 19.3% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
Seven-year-old with the strongest win rate in the field (roughly 1 in 6 races) but has never raced on soft ground—a significant concern given today's conditions. The one win came 14 months ago on good ground, and recent form shows three top-3 finishes in the last six races, suggesting the horse can still compete but the soft underfoot may not suit.
Never raced on soft ground
Best career win rate in field (1 in 6)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £15.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- Set to carry 168 lbs. In racing every pound counts, and this horse is not carrying too much.
- A 0% record at this course for S. G. Carey. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
Just broke through for a first win at Downpatrick six weeks ago and clearly relishes that track, where it has won 1 of only 3 career races. However, soft ground is an unknown quantity after winning on what was almost certainly better conditions, and the long gap since that breakthrough raises questions about whether the momentum has stalled.
Lightly raced (3 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £11.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Set to carry 168 lbs. In racing every pound counts, and this horse is not carrying too much.
- Finishing 2nd last time is encouraging. A horse that finishes well is usually in good shape.
- A 0% record at this course for E. F Power. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
Consistent five-year-old with 4 top-3 finishes from 7 races, but never tested on soft ground and that is a real gap in his record given today's conditions. Finished second at Cork just 19 days ago and showed up well at Kilbeggan too, but his best form has come on good to yielding ground rather than the wet underfoot he will face here.
Never raced on soft ground
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £15.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Its average finish over the last three runs is 3.3. That is steady. Horses that finish near the front often do so again.
- Results are getting better with each run. A horse on the way up has a good chance of a win soon.
- A 5.9% record at this course for R. O'Sullivan. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
Four-year-old with an encouraging win rate (roughly 1 in 3 races) from three starts, including a win at Cork and a second at Down Royal just two months ago. However, she has never raced on soft ground and her most recent outing was a 7th at Punchestown 16 days ago, suggesting the harder ground may suit her better than what she faces today.
Never raced on soft ground
Lightly raced (3 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £11.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Mr B. M. Coonan wins 33.3% of their races at this course. Knowing the track is an advantage for any jockey.
- This horse is happy on Yielding ground. When the ground suits, a horse can run to its best.
- D. O'Connor wins 0% of their races overall. That is below the top trainers.
TrackLab Insight
Making a racecourse debut with no form to judge, so there is nothing concrete to work with at this stage. The pedigree (Nathaniel out of a Martaline mare) suggests decent bloodlines, but this is the ultimate unknown quantity and soft ground at two miles offers no particular advantage for a horse stepping onto a track for the first time.
Racecourse debut
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £23.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Mr J. L. Gleeson wins 17% of all their races. That is a strong record. A jockey who wins often gives a horse a better chance.
- This horse is happy on Yielding ground. When the ground suits, a horse can run to its best.
- J. E & Thomas Kiely has a 0% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
Four-year-old filly with two races and no wins, though the most recent finish of third at Ballinrobe shows she can compete at this level. Never raced on soft ground, which is a notable gap, and her fifth-place finish five days earlier suggests inconsistency rather than upward momentum.
Never raced on soft ground
Lightly raced (2 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £126.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- Recent results are getting better. The horse is finishing higher up. A horse that is improving often keeps improving.
- A 4.3% career win rate for N. Dooly. That is below the top trainers.
TrackLab Insight
Five-year-old without a win from three races, most recently finishing 11th at Cork just yesterday—a heavy defeat that offers little encouragement. The 88-day gap before that suggests this horse has been difficult to place, and the jockey-trainer combination has yet to record a winner together.
Lightly raced (3 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £51.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A 40% win rate at this course for Y. Latta. Trainers who know a course often send out their horses well suited to it.
- This horse is happy on Yielding ground. When the ground suits, a horse can run to its best.
- Only 8th last time out. That is not what we want to see before today's race.
TrackLab Insight
Four-year-old with only one race under his belt, finishing eighth at Ballinrobe 158 days ago, and raced again yesterday with limited information available. Never tested on soft ground and the solitary outing provides almost no evidence of what he is capable of competing at this level.
Never raced on soft ground
Lightly raced (1 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £34.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Today's ground is Yielding, and that suits this horse. Like athletes who prefer one type of surface, horses have favourite ground.
- A weight of 160 lbs is manageable. A lighter load helps in the closing stages.
- A 5.5% career win rate for Mr D. Doyle. That is on the low side and could matter today.
TrackLab Insight
Making a racecourse debut with no prior form to assess, so this is a complete unknown as a competitor. The pedigree (Sumbal out of an Oscar mare) offers some promise on paper, but debut runners always carry significant uncertainty and soft ground at a two-mile trip provides no advantage for an inexperienced horse.
Racecourse debut
What the colours mean
40+ Very strong chance
20–39 Strong chance
12–19 Solid chance
6–11 Could surprise
Under 6 Long shot
Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
- Underrated horse
- We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
- Our top pick
- The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
- TrackLab Score
- Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
- Ground
- How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
- Race level (Class)
- From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
- Group, Grade and Listed
- The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
- Handicap
- The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
- Maiden
- A race for horses that haven't won yet.
- Novice
- A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
- Chase, hurdle and bumper
- Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
- Distance (m and f)
- m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
- Each way
- A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
- Weight
- How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
- Jockey claim
- An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
- Headgear
- Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.