Down Royal
·
Irish Stallion Farms EBF Feathard Lady Mares Novice Hurdle (Grade 3)
Starts in
13h 56min
Turf track
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score
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Our top pick for this race
Strong chance
Odds 15/8
£1 wins £1.88 · 26 Strong chance
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £2.88 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A 22% win rate at this course for H. de Bromhead. Trainers who know a course often send out their horses well suited to it.
- A 13.2% overall win rate for H. de Bromhead. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
- Not rated highly by the official rater. The rating reflects what the horse has done so far, and it is modest.
TrackLab Insight
The market favourite at 2/1 and the only runner here trained by Henry de Bromhead, but she's lightly raced with just three career starts and has never encountered soft ground before—an unknown in testing conditions. Won last time at Fairyhouse three weeks ago, though that was on firmer ground over hurdles.
Never raced on soft ground
Lightly raced (3 career races)
Market favourite (2/1)
£1 wins £2.75 · 22 Strong chance
A low win rate on this ground from 4 previous runs
22
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £3.75 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A low win rate on this ground from 4 previous runs. The ground could work against the horse today.
- An official rating of 124 is in this horse's favour. The rating comes from results, and this horse's number looks good.
- A 5.9% record at this course for R. O'Sullivan. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
By far the most experienced runner here with 22 races and a solid 27% win rate, but has zero wins from four attempts on soft ground—a critical weakness given today's conditions. Three top-3 finishes in her last six runs show form is there, but the ground and recent 27-day absence are real concerns.
Most experienced (22 runs, field avg 8)
3 straight top-3 finishes
£1 wins £6.50 · 11 Could surprise
J. Patrick O'Brien wins 14.1% of all their races
11
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £7.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- J. Patrick O'Brien wins 14.1% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
- An official rating of 121 is in this horse's favour. The rating comes from results, and this horse's number looks good.
- This trainer's horses often do not finish their races. That makes them harder to trust.
TrackLab Insight
Never raced on soft ground and comes back after 65 days away, yet did string three consecutive top-3 finishes before that break, including a win at Downpatrick in July. Her form suggests competence on firmer surfaces, but the ground here is a real query given her inexperience in wet conditions.
Never raced on soft ground
3 straight top-3 finishes
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £9.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- H. de Bromhead has a good 22% record here. A trainer who does well at one course is worth noting.
- H. de Bromhead wins 13.2% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
- The trainer's horses do not always finish their races. That raises questions about fitness and preparation.
TrackLab Insight
Carries an underrated label and has a solid 29% win rate with two wins from seven races—best record after Alliteration—though she's been off for 134 days. Her last outing four months ago was a mid-field finish at Leopardstown, and the long layoff makes form predictions difficult despite her ability in the de Bromhead stable.
One of the more successful in the field (2 career wins)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £12.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- A. John Black has a good 22.2% record here. A trainer who does well at one course is worth noting.
- A. John Black has a 3.9% overall win rate, which is on the low side. That may mean the horse is not at its best.
TrackLab Insight
Has won both her races at Sligo and is back just seven days after victory there—a sign she's found a track that suits her. Rated well above the field average but overlooked at 11/1, she brings three consecutive top-3 finishes into this race, though switching to Down Royal is a different test entirely.
3 straight top-3 finishes
Runs again after just 7 days
Unfancied in the market despite a high rating
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £12.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- A 12.2% overall win rate for M. Walsh. Good jockeys make better decisions during a race.
- Has been off the track for 183 days. That is a long break. Some horses come back fresh. Others need a run to get fit again.
TrackLab Insight
Boasts the best win rate in the field at one win in every three races, and carries an underrated label despite 9/1 odds. Returns after 183 days out, which is a long absence for a five-year-old, but her record of finishing in the money in five of six races suggests she's a naturally gifted performer.
Best career win rate in field (1 in 3)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £11.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Rated 121 by the official rater. That is a strong number based on past results.
- A. Slattery wins 7.9% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
- A 4.9% record at this course for A. Slattery. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
Has never run on soft ground either, which rules her out for practical purposes on a day like this despite a decent 25% win rate. Her strength lies on good ground where she's won twice from four starts, but Down Royal's soft surface makes her an unlikely threat.
Never raced on soft ground
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £13.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- A 30.9% win rate at this course for J. Kennedy. Jockeys who know a track well can pick the best ground and time their run.
- This trainer's horses often do not finish their races. That makes them harder to trust.
TrackLab Insight
Has been away 198 days—far longer than any other runner—and boasts the only soft-ground win in the field after striking at Leopardstown in March. However, her 12% career win rate and weak form overall (just one win from eight attempts) suggest the long layoff is a bigger concern than her soft-ground strength.
Absent 198 days (longest in field)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £41.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- Has an official rating of 112. This is a score from the official rater, and a higher number means a better horse. This horse is rated well.
- S. G. Carey has a 0% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
Rated well below the field average and hasn't found the winner's circle since Downpatrick in July—now 139 days ago. Her most recent effort was a distant 8th at Listowel, suggesting form has dipped, and at 33/1 the odds reflect a horse unlikely to trouble the front-runners.
One of the more successful in the field (2 career wins)
What the colours mean
40+ Very strong chance
20–39 Strong chance
12–19 Solid chance
6–11 Could surprise
Under 6 Long shot
Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
- Underrated horse
- We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
- Our top pick
- The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
- TrackLab Score
- Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
- Ground
- How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
- Race level (Class)
- From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
- Group, Grade and Listed
- The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
- Handicap
- The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
- Maiden
- A race for horses that haven't won yet.
- Novice
- A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
- Chase, hurdle and bumper
- Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
- Distance (m and f)
- m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
- Each way
- A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
- Weight
- How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
- Jockey claim
- An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
- Headgear
- Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.