Carlisle
·
Great Gable Mares' Handicap Steeple Chase (Queen Boudicca Mares' Chase Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)
Starts in
12h 13min
Turf track
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score
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25
Our top pick for this race
Strong chance
Odds 9/4
£1 wins £2.25 · 25 Strong chance
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £3.25 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- This is a 7-runner race, and the size suits this horse. Some horses prefer a small field with less traffic. Others do well in a crowd.
- This horse is suited to this Chase Turf race. A horse in its best type of race can just focus on running.
- Has not raced for 279 days. That is a long time away, and we cannot be sure the horse will be fit enough.
TrackLab Insight
Market favourite at 5/2 with the strongest win rate in the field — 1 winner from just 5 races — but arrives after a 279-day absence, the longest in the field by far. That layoff is a significant question mark: when she last raced at Carlisle nine months ago, she finished 2nd by 2 lengths, so the track suits her on paper, yet nine months away from a chase is rarely without cost.
Absent 279 days (longest in field)
Best career win rate in field (1 in 5)
Market favourite (5/2)
22
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £4.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- This is a 7-runner race, and the size suits this horse. Some horses prefer a small field with less traffic. Others do well in a crowd.
- A Chase Turf race works in this horse's favour. Horses often do best in one type of race and struggle in others.
- Carrying 8.3 lbs more than the average for this race. That makes winning harder.
TrackLab Insight
The most experienced horse here with 23 races under her belt and a record of 2 wins — she's the only course winner with 2 victories from 7 runs at Carlisle — but age (8) and recent form matter: 6th, 14th, and 3rd in her last three races show inconsistency, and she's rated 8lbs below the field average. Her form on good ground is blank (0 wins from 7 starts), which is a risk depending on conditions.
Lowest rated, 8lbs below average
Carries lowest weight in field
Only course winner (2 from 7 here)
Most experienced (23 runs, field avg 11)
£1 wins £4.50 · 16 Solid chance
This is a 7-runner race, and the size suits this horse
16
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £5.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- This is a 7-runner race, and the size suits this horse. Some horses prefer a small field with less traffic. Others do well in a crowd.
- No wins at this distance yet. We cannot tell if the race is too long, too short or just right.
- F. O'Brien has not had many runners lately, so their recent form is unclear.
TrackLab Insight
Back to winning ways just this week after 212 days off the track, which is an unusually long absence that makes her immediate readiness here hard to gauge. The win at Chepstow came after modest form (5th, 2nd, 3rd, 3rd, 4th in the six prior races), so one victory doesn't yet signal a sustained return to form.
2nd highest rated (OR 109)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £6.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- 7 runners today is a good number for this horse. The number of runners affects how a race is run.
- This horse is suited to this Chase Turf race. A horse in its best type of race can just focus on running.
- As a mare, this horse has a small disadvantage in races like this, going by past results. It is a small factor, but worth knowing.
TrackLab Insight
Still searching for her first career win after six races: two top-3 finishes suggest she belongs here, but she's been beaten very fine twice (1 length, 5 lengths) without quite getting the job done. A 210-day layoff before her most recent outing (3rd at Hexham) raises questions about how sharp she is returning to this level.
Top-3 finishes in 2 of last 3 races
£1 wins £7.50 · 11 Could surprise
This is a 7-runner race, and the size suits this horse
11
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £8.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- This is a 7-runner race, and the size suits this horse. Some horses prefer a small field with less traffic. Others do well in a crowd.
- Today's race is over 2m 4f. That distance looks right for this horse. Running over the right distance matters a lot.
- This trainer's horses often do not finish their races. That makes them harder to trust.
TrackLab Insight
Top-rated by 3lbs and the only horse in this field with a win at 2m 4f — that matters more than her recent form slump suggests. Two 4th-place finishes in the last ten weeks show she's still competitive, but the Boxing Day win at Kempton now sits ten months in the past, and she hasn't found the winner's enclosure since.
Top rated by 3lbs
Only winner at this distance
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £9.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- 7 runners today is a good number for this horse. The number of runners affects how a race is run.
- B. Hughes wins 15.9% of their races at this course. Knowing the track is an advantage for any jockey.
- Up against stronger rivals than before. Moving up to a harder race tests whether a horse is improving.
TrackLab Insight
Underrated according to our model, though the data tells a cautious story: just 1 win from 15 races and recent outings (3rd, 8th, 5th at Downpatrick) suggest she's struggling to land a blow. Her form on good and good-to-yielding ground reads as blank — 0 wins from 11 attempts combined — which matters for ground conditions here.
One of the more successful in the field (1 career wins)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £23.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A 7-runner race works well for this horse. The number of runners changes the pace and how much room a horse has.
- A Chase Turf race works in this horse's favour. Horses often do best in one type of race and struggle in others.
- The trainer's horses do not always finish their races. That raises questions about fitness and preparation.
TrackLab Insight
The youngest runner here at five years old, but also one of the least active: 201 days between races is a substantial layoff, and she's managed only 1 win from 9 career starts (roughly 1 in 9). Her most recent run came 6 weeks ago at Perth, where she finished 6th beaten 24 lengths — a signal that confidence may not be running high right now.
One of the more successful in the field (1 career wins)
What the colours mean
40+ Very strong chance
20–39 Strong chance
12–19 Solid chance
6–11 Could surprise
Under 6 Long shot
Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
- Underrated horse
- We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
- Our top pick
- The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
- TrackLab Score
- Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
- Ground
- How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
- Race level (Class)
- From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
- Group, Grade and Listed
- The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
- Handicap
- The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
- Maiden
- A race for horses that haven't won yet.
- Novice
- A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
- Chase, hurdle and bumper
- Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
- Distance (m and f)
- m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
- Each way
- A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
- Weight
- How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
- Jockey claim
- An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
- Headgear
- Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.