Carlisle
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Mares' Open Maiden National Hunt Flat Race (Category 3 Elimination) (GBB Race)
Starts in
12h 46min
Turf track
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score
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£1 wins £1.10 · 40 Very strong chance
J. Snowden has won 16.3% of their races in their career
40
Our top pick for this race
Very strong chance
Odds 11/10
£1 wins £1.10 · 40 Very strong chance
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £2.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- J. Snowden has won 16.3% of their races in their career. Trainers at this level know how to get horses ready.
- J. Snowden wins 36.1% of their races at this course. Some trainers aim horses at particular tracks, and this one does well here.
- Has not raced for 559 days. That is a long time away, and we cannot be sure the horse will be fit enough.
TrackLab Insight
The market favourite at 7/4, but she is returning after nearly 334 days away from the track—one of the longest absences in the field—following a single previous race that did not result in a top-3 finish. Long lay-offs carry genuine risk; a horse may return sharp or blunt, and this comeback is impossible to read with confidence.
Lightly raced (1 career races)
Absent 559 days (longest in field)
Market favourite (7/4)
23
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £4.33 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- B. Hughes wins 15.9% of their races at this course. Knowing the track is an advantage for any jockey.
- A 15.1% overall win rate for D. McCain. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
- The official rating suggests this horse has work to do. Lower-rated horses need to improve to win.
TrackLab Insight
A 5-year-old making her racecourse debut—late in a horse's career—for Donald McCain, one of the sport's most successful trainers with an exceptional record of 264 wins from 1,288 races with jockey Brian Hughes. Beyond McCain's pedigree as a trainer, there is nothing on record to suggest how Lutece Borget has progressed in his years away from the track.
Racecourse debut
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £6.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- N. Richards has a good 22% record here. A trainer who does well at one course is worth noting.
- A 14.5% overall win rate for D. McMenamin. Good jockeys make better decisions during a race.
- An 11-runner race works against this horse. Too many runners can mean getting boxed in. Too few can mean nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Making her racecourse debut for Nicky Richards, a trainer who has already saddled 39 winners this season, suggests the yard has form and knows how to run a winner. With no track record of her own, Belle Noire arrives as an unproven debut runner, though her pedigree (by Wings Of Eagles) hints at capability.
Racecourse debut
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £8.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- O. Murphy has a good 25% record here. A trainer who does well at one course is worth noting.
- O. Murphy wins 18.9% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
- This is an 11-runner race, and the size is not ideal. A big field means more traffic. A small field means nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
A 4-year-old making her racecourse debut—notably late in a career—for Olly Murphy and Robert Dunne, who have won just 4 times from 28 races together. By Vadamos out of a Havana Gold mare, this is a complete mystery on the track; her only test will come here.
Racecourse debut
£1 wins £11 · 6 Could surprise
N. W. Alexander has won 10.6% of their races in their career
6
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £12.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- N. W. Alexander has won 10.6% of their races in their career. Trainers at this level know how to get horses ready.
- Today's ground suits this horse. Like athletes who prefer one type of surface, horses have favourite ground.
- The official rating suggests this horse has work to do. Lower-rated horses need to improve to win.
TrackLab Insight
A racecourse debut for a 4-year-old trained by N. W. Alexander, whose yard has sent out 19 winners this season and boasts a strong win rate overall. By Jet Away out of a Westerner mare, Lake Nagambie arrives at the track without prior form but within a yard in genuine form.
Racecourse debut
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £17.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A 15.9% overall win rate for F. O'Brien. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
- A 15.9% overall win rate for F. O'Brien. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
- The official rating suggests this horse has work to do. Lower-rated horses need to improve to win.
TrackLab Insight
A 5-year-old who has raced twice without winning or finishing in the top 3, running 6th at Uttoxeter most recently and 5th before that. Lightly raced for her age, she has shown she can stay competitive enough to be in the frame, but has not yet crossed the line in front.
Lightly raced (2 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £21.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- S. Quinlan wins 10.3% of all their races. That is a strong record. A jockey who wins often gives a horse a better chance.
- Finishing 2nd last time is encouraging. A horse that finishes well is usually in good shape.
- The official rating suggests this horse has work to do. Lower-rated horses need to improve to win.
TrackLab Insight
A 5-year-old with two races under her belt and two top-3 finishes already—2nd at Sedgefield most recently and 3rd before that—which means she is genuinely competitive at her level, even without a win yet. She is the only runner in this field with multiple top-3 finishes, making her the most proven on a level playing field of debutants and lightly raced animals.
Lightly raced (2 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £31.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- The ground works in this horse's favour. The ground makes a big difference in racing, and today it helps.
- With £2,178 in prize money, this is a competitive race. The horse has been entered for a reason.
- A 0% record at this course for S. Thomson. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
A 5-year-old making her racecourse debut is unusual—most horses run much younger—so there's real uncertainty about what to expect. With no prior form and a late start to her career, this is a complete unknown; she may settle quickly or struggle with the pace and track.
Racecourse debut
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £41.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A 10.3% overall win rate for C. Nichol. Good jockeys make better decisions during a race.
- E. Whillans has a good 9.6% record here. A trainer who does well at one course is worth noting.
- Not rated highly by the official rater. The rating reflects what the horse has done so far, and it is modest.
TrackLab Insight
A racecourse debut for a 4-year-old trained by Ewan Whillans, who has a solid win rate with Craig Nichol in the saddle. Without any prior form, this is raw potential on pedigree alone—by Dragon Dancer out of a Shirocco mare—so the race will reveal what, if anything, she brings to the track.
Racecourse debut
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £67.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- The ground works in this horse's favour. The ground makes a big difference in racing, and today it helps.
- A prize fund of £2,178 is healthy. When trainers aim at valuable races, they usually have faith in their runner.
- A. Crook has a 3.8% overall win rate, which is on the low side. That may mean the horse is not at its best.
TrackLab Insight
Ciel d'Azur debuts for Andrew Crook and jockey Oscar Palmer, who have never won together in three attempts. The pedigree (by Blue Bresil, out of an Oscar mare) reads solidly on paper, but with no racing record and an untested jockey-trainer combination, there are question marks around this debut.
Racecourse debut
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £51.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- M. Rowley has a good 25% record here. A trainer who does well at one course is worth noting.
- C. Deutsch has a good 22.7% record here. Knowing the course is one of a jockey's biggest strengths.
- Jumping is a weakness. In jumps racing, poor jumping loses ground and confidence.
TrackLab Insight
Oakstead Park has one race on record, finishing finished in the top 3 without winning 201 days ago—evidence of early promise but limited data. Our model rates her as underrated, suggesting there may be more to come, though with only one outing and a long break since, there is still little concrete form to judge.
Lightly raced (1 career races)
What the colours mean
40+ Very strong chance
20–39 Strong chance
12–19 Solid chance
6–11 Could surprise
Under 6 Long shot
Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
- Underrated horse
- We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
- Our top pick
- The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
- TrackLab Score
- Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
- Ground
- How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
- Race level (Class)
- From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
- Group, Grade and Listed
- The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
- Handicap
- The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
- Maiden
- A race for horses that haven't won yet.
- Novice
- A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
- Chase, hurdle and bumper
- Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
- Distance (m and f)
- m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
- Each way
- A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
- Weight
- How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
- Jockey claim
- An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
- Headgear
- Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.