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Carlisle

·
Chase Series Veterans' Handicap Steeple Chase (Qualifier)
Starts in
10h 1min
Jumps race · big fences · weighted to be fair About 2.5 miles Unknown Mid-level race 4 runners £9,506 prize money
Turf track
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score

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1 Parisencore
D. McMenamin · N. Richards · 10yo · 12st 0lb · Official rating 129
£1 wins £1 · 35 Strong chance
A 4-runner race works well for this horse
Headgear Form
35
Our top pick for this race
Strong chance
Odds Evens
£1 wins £1 · 35 Strong chance
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £2.00 back.

How odds work
✓ Field size ✓ Trainer wins at this course ✓ Trainer overall starts
Wearing cheekpieces Won 1 of last 5 Raced here before Won at this distance 1 time
Why this score
  • A 4-runner race works well for this horse. The number of runners changes the pace and how much room a horse has.
  • N. Richards wins 22% of their races at this course. Some trainers aim horses at particular tracks, and this one does well here.
  • The trainer's horses do not always finish their races. That raises questions about fitness and preparation.
TrackLab Insight
Top-rated by 7lbs and the market favourite at 1/1, Parisencore looks well-suited here after a convincing win at Wetherby just 26 days ago. He wins roughly 1 in 5 races and has an exceptional record on fast, dry ground (2 wins from 3), though the form before his last victory was patchy. The handicap weight of 168lbs is the heaviest in the field, which could count against him in a four-horse race.
Top rated by 7lbs Market favourite (1/1)
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £2.00 back.

How odds work
Wearing cheekpieces Back quickly after its last run Won 0 of last 5 Raced here before Won at this distance 1 time
Why this score
  • 4 runners today is a good number for this horse. The number of runners affects how a race is run.
  • A Chase Turf race works in this horse's favour. Horses often do best in one type of race and struggle in others.
  • At 10.2 lbs heavier than the average, the extra weight adds up, especially in the final furlong (the last 220 yards).
TrackLab Insight
The lowest-rated horse by 10lbs and carrying the lightest weight at 149lbs, but the turnaround in his favour ends there—he ran just 2 days ago at Kelso and finished 4th, and has now gone six races without a win. He has never won at Carlisle in 5 attempts and struggles on heavy and good-to-soft ground, both real risks in chase racing. His quick return to the track and poor record at this venue make him a difficult case to build.
Lowest rated, 10lbs below average Carries lowest weight in field Runs again after just 2 days
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £2.20 back.

How odds work
Has won at this course and distance Wearing tongue strap Won 1 of last 5 Won here 6 times Won at this distance 7 times
Why this score
  • This is a 4-runner race, and the size suits this horse. Some horses prefer a small field with less traffic. Others do well in a crowd.
  • B. Hughes has a good 15.9% record here. Knowing the course is one of a jockey's biggest strengths.
  • Has won 6 times at this course from 13 runs. A horse that has won here before may like the course.
TrackLab Insight
The standout form horse here: he has the best career win rate in the field at roughly 1 in 4 races, is a genuine Carlisle specialist with 6 wins from 13 starts, and was only beaten 3 lengths at this venue just 18 days ago in a Class 2 race. He excels on heavy ground and has won over this exact distance, though his 0 wins from 8 attempts on soft ground is a genuine weakness if the surface leans that way. At 13/8, he offers the sharpest recent form in the lineup.
Course specialist (6 wins from 13 here) Has won over this course and distance Best record at this trip (7 from 16) Best career win rate in field (1 in 4)
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £8.50 back.

How odds work
Has won at this course and distance Wearing tongue strap Won 1 of last 5 Won here 1 time Won at this distance 2 times
Why this score
  • 4 runners today is a good number for this horse. The number of runners affects how a race is run.
  • This horse is suited to this Chase Turf race. A horse in its best type of race can just focus on running.
  • 1 win from 5 runs at this track. When a horse likes a course, it often runs well there again.
TrackLab Insight
The only horse in this field with a proven win at Carlisle over this distance, but his recent form is deeply concerning—five consecutive runs of 5th or worse, stretching back nearly a year. At 12 years old and 10/1, he is being largely overlooked by the market, yet there is no evidence in the data to suggest a turnaround is imminent. His Ayr record (4 wins from 10) shows he can win at courses he knows, but that expertise does not extend to Carlisle.
Has won over this course and distance
What the colours mean
40+ Very strong chance 20–39 Strong chance 12–19 Solid chance 6–11 Could surprise Under 6 Long shot Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.

What these words mean

Underrated horse
We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
Our top pick
The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
TrackLab Score
Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
Ground
How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
Race level (Class)
From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
Group, Grade and Listed
The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
Handicap
The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
Maiden
A race for horses that haven't won yet.
Novice
A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
Chase, hurdle and bumper
Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
Distance (m and f)
m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
Each way
A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
Weight
How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
Jockey claim
An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
Headgear
Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.
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