Carlisle
·
Fatty Renshaw Memorial Novices' Handicap Hurdle Race
Starts in
10h 31min
Turf track
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score
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£1 wins £2.13 · 27 Strong chance
J. O'Neill Jr. wins 24% of their races at this course
27
Our top pick for this race
Strong chance
Odds 85/40
£1 wins £2.13 · 27 Strong chance
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £3.13 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- J. O'Neill Jr. wins 24% of their races at this course. Knowing the track is an advantage for any jockey.
- J. O'Neill Jr. has won 15.3% of their races in their career. That steady record counts for a lot.
- This trainer's horses often do not finish their races. That makes them harder to trust.
TrackLab Insight
Diamond White is the market favourite at 9/4 after breaking through this week at Fontwell, her first win from nine races. However, she has no wins from six starts on either good-to-soft or good ground, which raises questions about whether her breakthrough came on a suited surface, and her typical profile is a grinder rather than a star.
Market favourite (9/4)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £5.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- With £3,301 in prize money, this is a competitive race. The horse has been entered for a reason.
- Has an official rating of 102. This is a score from the official rater, and a higher number means a better horse. This horse is rated well.
- D. Bourke wins 8.4% of their races overall. That is below the top trainers.
TrackLab Insight
Matching Energy has one win from seven races but hasn't visited the winners' enclosure for 16 months despite being competitive—he was beaten just 0.3 lengths at this course 219 days ago. His record on good-to-soft ground is strong with one win from three starts, giving him an edge if the track softens, but recent form shows mixed results.
One of the more successful in the field (1 career wins)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £6.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- No wins at this distance yet. We cannot tell if the race is too long, too short or just right.
- Today's race is over 2m 4½f. That distance looks right for this horse. Running over the right distance matters a lot.
- This trainer's horses often do not finish their races. That makes them harder to trust.
TrackLab Insight
Bo Cruz has one win from ten races—the only course winner in the field with recent victory at Catterick—but hasn't raced for eight months, which is a significant lay-off. He's underrated by the market and comes in off a narrow 10-length defeat, though his record on good-to-soft ground is a concern with no wins from three starts on that surface.
One of the more successful in the field (1 career wins)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £5.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A 15.1% overall win rate for B. Hughes. Good jockeys make better decisions during a race.
- An 11.5% overall win rate for J. Dawson. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
- This trainer's horses often do not finish their races. That makes them harder to trust.
TrackLab Insight
Whin Cover is underrated and has finished in the top three in two of his last three races, including a third at Market Rasen just 23 days ago, suggesting he's hitting form at the right time. With no wins from five races overall, a breakthrough would be timely, and his recent consistency marks him out as more progressive than most in the field.
Top-3 finishes in 2 of last 3 races
£1 wins £7 · 10 Could surprise
O. Greenall & Josh Guerriero wins 13.3% of all their races
10
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £8.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- O. Greenall & Josh Guerriero wins 13.3% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
- J. Tudor has won 11.7% of their races in their career. That steady record counts for a lot.
- O. Greenall & Josh Guerriero wins 13.3% of their races overall. That is below the top trainers.
TrackLab Insight
Diamond Jim has the best win rate in the field at one in seven, with a win on Boxing Day at Haydock showing his yard has timed a victory recently. However, his last two runs tell a worrying story: a heavy 60-length defeat and an unseating, followed by a 25-length loss just 19 days ago, suggesting he's struggling at present.
Best career win rate in field (1 in 7)
3
Espoir des Forges
£1 wins £16 · 6 Could surprise
Has yet to win over this distance
6
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £17.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has yet to win over this distance. It is like asking a sprinter to run a marathon. Distance matters, and this horse has not shown it can win here.
- C. Deutsch has won 13.0% of their races in their career. That steady record counts for a lot.
- Has been off the track for 586 days. That is a long break. Some horses come back fresh. Others need a run to get fit again.
TrackLab Insight
Espoir Des Forges has been away for a year and has never won in five races, making his comeback at Carlisle uncertain territory. He pulled up at Exeter 586 days ago—the longest absence in the field—and will need to prove he's still competitive after such a prolonged break.
Absent 586 days (longest in field)
7
Karma de Cotte
£1 wins £16 · 5 Long shot
Racing against weaker rivals than last time
5
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £17.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Racing against weaker rivals than last time. Think of a Premier League team playing in the Championship. The drop in level helps.
- Has been off the track for 232 days. That is a long break. Some horses come back fresh. Others need a run to get fit again.
- J. Stephen wins 5.9% of their races overall. That is below the top trainers.
TrackLab Insight
Karma De Cotte has zero wins from six races with just one finished in the top 3 finish, and his recent form at Carlisle itself is poor: a ninth-place beating of 44 lengths just 232 days ago. At 20/1, he looks like the true outsider and offers little evidence he can break through here.
Outsider at 20/1
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £19.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has not won at this distance before. We do not know if the race length suits the horse.
- O. Greenall & Josh Guerriero wins 13.3% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
- The trainer's horses do not always finish their races. That raises questions about fitness and preparation.
TrackLab Insight
Cool Master is relatively inexperienced with just five races and has failed to finish in the top three in any of them, most recently a tenth-place beating at Worcester. The data is thin and the recent form is poor, making him a difficult case to make in a ten-runner field.
Relatively inexperienced (5 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £21.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has an official rating of 101. This is a score from the official rater, and a higher number means a better horse. This horse is rated well.
- Has not raced for 178 days. That is a long time away, and we cannot be sure the horse will be fit enough.
- C. Kellett has a 4.1% overall win rate, which is on the low side. That may mean the horse is not at its best.
TrackLab Insight
Disguisedlimit is winless from 11 races and will have his first ride with Danny McMenamin here—a pairing that offers no history to build on. He has finished in the top-3 finishes eight times, suggesting he's competitive enough to be in the mix, but converting that consistency into a winner remains elusive.
Winless from 11 career races
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £41.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A 2m 4½f race suits this horse well. When a horse is comfortable with the distance, it can settle into a good rhythm.
- Has been off the track for 174 days. That is a long break. Some horses come back fresh. Others need a run to get fit again.
- A 4% career win rate for A. Wilson. That is below the top trainers.
TrackLab Insight
Reliance Kid is the lowest-rated horse in the field at 69—28 pounds below average—and carries the lightest weight, but has never won or finished in the top three from eight races. Recent form shows five unplaced finishes and a pulled-up, offering little to suggest he can turn matters around here.
Lowest rated, 28lbs below average
Carries lowest weight in field
What the colours mean
40+ Very strong chance
20–39 Strong chance
12–19 Solid chance
6–11 Could surprise
Under 6 Long shot
Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
- Underrated horse
- We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
- Our top pick
- The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
- TrackLab Score
- Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
- Ground
- How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
- Race level (Class)
- From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
- Group, Grade and Listed
- The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
- Handicap
- The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
- Maiden
- A race for horses that haven't won yet.
- Novice
- A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
- Chase, hurdle and bumper
- Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
- Distance (m and f)
- m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
- Each way
- A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
- Weight
- How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
- Jockey claim
- An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
- Headgear
- Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.