Carlisle
·
Christmas Community Raceday 13th December Handicap Hurdle Race (Go North Sea Pigeon Series Qualifier)
Starts in
11h 38min
Turf track
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score
18+ | Gamble responsibly: BeGambleAware.org Ad: we earn commission if you join a bookmaker via our links.
£1 wins £3.50 · 17 Solid chance
An official rating of 105 is in this horse's favour
17
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £4.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- An official rating of 105 is in this horse's favour. The rating comes from results, and this horse's number looks good.
- Has not raced for 233 days. That is a long time away, and we cannot be sure the horse will be fit enough.
- 14 runners today is not the number this horse wants. The number of runners changes how a race is run.
TrackLab Insight
The shortest price in the race at 6/1, Madame La Papillon won her sole victory 25 months ago and hasn't found the winner's enclosure since, though she's finished in the top 3 four times in eight races. Her only win came on soft ground (she's 1 from 4 on that surface), but there's no evidence she'll get those conditions here and her recent form—third at Kelso in late July—is now over 230 days old.
Market favourite (6/1)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £5.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- S. England has a good 18.6% record here. A trainer who does well at one course is worth noting.
- Has raced here 2 times without winning. This course has not suited the horse so far.
- This is a 14-runner race, and the size is not ideal. A big field means more traffic. A small field means nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Gaelic Glow has raced just eight times without a win or a single top-3 finish, meaning he's relatively inexperienced and well below average at this level. His last six races show a pattern of 4th-5th-6th-5th-10th-5th, consistent mid-field mediocrity that suggests he still has some finding to do.
Relatively inexperienced (8 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £9.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has won 1 time over this distance. That is a good sign the race length suits the horse.
- Has an official rating of 98. This is a score from the official rater, and a higher number means a better horse. This horse is rated well.
- A 14-runner race works against this horse. Too many runners can mean getting boxed in. Too few can mean nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Nobotheratall is a course-and-distance specialist with two wins from 13 races and a win rate of roughly 1 in 7, plus a strong record with his jockey Harry Reed (40% win rate together). His most recent run was fourth at Newcastle just 13 days ago, keeping him sharp, though he's winless for five months overall.
Has won over this course and distance
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £9.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- D. McCain wins 15.1% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
- B. Hughes wins 15.9% of their races at this course. Knowing the track is an advantage for any jockey.
- This is a 14-runner race, and the size is not ideal. A big field means more traffic. A small field means nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Rossbridge has the standout record in this field: two wins from five races (40% win rate) and sharp form before his 111-day break, winning most recently at Musselburgh 336 days ago. The critical question is whether he returns fit after three months off—that's the longest absence many horses will face all season, and recovery times are unpredictable.
Best career win rate in field (1 in 2)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £10.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has run 1 time at this track with no wins yet. Some horses do not take to some courses.
- A 24% win rate at this course for J. O'Neill Jr.. Jockeys who know a track well can pick the best ground and time their run.
- This is a 14-runner race, and the size is not ideal. A big field means more traffic. A small field means nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Circuit Breaker has won roughly 1 in 8 races, but his recent form reads like a run of near-misses: three consecutive finishes from 3rd to 4th, beaten under 7 lengths each time. The key issue is this course—he's never won at Carlisle in four attempts, and on standard ground (today's likely condition) he's 0 from 9, so don't expect him to break that pattern despite good ground form elsewhere.
Among the more experienced (25 career races)
8
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £9.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- G. Sheehan has won 17% of their races in their career. That steady record counts for a lot.
- Has an official rating of 106. This is a score from the official rater, and a higher number means a better horse. This horse is rated well.
- 14 runners today is not the number this horse wants. The number of runners changes how a race is run.
TrackLab Insight
Mr Caulfield has raced five times without a win and never finished in the top 3 except once, making him one of the rawest horses here. His recent runs show heavy defeats—fifth at Downpatrick last month, tenth at Galway before that—suggesting he's still searching for his level and not ready to compete at this standard yet.
2nd highest rated (OR 106)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £13.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- An 18.5% overall win rate for H. Brown. Good jockeys make better decisions during a race.
- A prize fund of £4,621 is healthy. When trainers aim at valuable races, they usually have faith in their runner.
- This is a 14-runner race, and the size is not ideal. A big field means more traffic. A small field means nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Paddy's Policy won once in 11 races and hasn't added to that tally in nearly two years, despite picking up top-3 finishes along the way. His last run at Market Rasen 32 days ago ended in 5th, and he's winless on good ground (0 from 5), which is a concern if conditions stay firm or fast.
Mid-range in the market (12/1)
6
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £9.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- An official rating of 100 is in this horse's favour. The rating comes from results, and this horse's number looks good.
- Starting from a good position. On some tracks, starting on one side can save ground.
- This is a 14-runner race, and the size is not ideal. A big field means more traffic. A small field means nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Bruce Banner has raced 24 times and won 3 (12% win rate), showing decent form at lower levels but struggling recently with four consecutive 2nd to 9th place finishes. He's winless on good ground (0 from 4) and good-to-firm (0 from 3), which matters given today's likely fast track conditions at Carlisle.
Among the more experienced (24 career races)
£1 wins £12 · 6 Could surprise
With 47 races behind it, this horse knows what to expect
6
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £13.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- With 47 races behind it, this horse knows what to expect. Experienced runners tend to cope better with pressure.
- Starting from a good position. On some tracks, starting on one side can save ground.
- 14 runners today is not the number this horse wants. The number of runners changes how a race is run.
TrackLab Insight
Well Educated is by far the most experienced horse here with 47 races, a 15% win rate (7 wins), and has won here before at Carlisle over this distance. His form is consistent rather than spectacular—recent runs include a narrow second at Hexham—and at 10 years old he's now in the twilight of his career, though still capable of mixing it at this class level.
Has won over this course and distance
Most experienced (47 runs, field avg 17)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £13.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has not raced for 219 days. That is a long time away, and we cannot be sure the horse will be fit enough.
- The starting stall helps today. At this course, some stalls have done better than others.
- Carrying 19.4 lbs more than the average for this race. That makes winning harder.
TrackLab Insight
Heritier carries the lowest weight in the field and is rated 19 pounds below the average, reflecting the gap in class. However, he has his best record at this trip (3 wins from 13 races) and has raced recently, finishing 6th at Carlisle 219 days ago—though that's nearly eight months back, so he's due a run before this one to shake off the ring rust.
Lowest rated, 19lbs below average
Carries lowest weight in field
Best record at this trip (3 from 13)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £21.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- No wins at this distance yet. We cannot tell if the race is too long, too short or just right.
- Has an official rating of 104. This is a score from the official rater, and a higher number means a better horse. This horse is rated well.
- This is a 14-runner race, and the size is not ideal. A big field means more traffic. A small field means nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Kingston Bridge carries the underrated label and has a genuinely strong record—22% win rate (4 from 18 races)—but here's the catch: he's been off the track for 680 days, the longest absence in the entire field. He won a Class 2 race at Kelso 15 months before his last outing, which speaks to his quality, but that length of break makes him a complete unknown on the day.
Absent 680 days (longest in field)
7
Kadjar des Mottes
£1 wins £25 · 2 Long shot
D. McCain has a good 15.3% record here
2
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £26.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- D. McCain has a good 15.3% record here. A trainer who does well at one course is worth noting.
- Has yet to win over this distance. It is like asking a sprinter to run a marathon. Distance matters, and this horse has not shown it can win here.
- 14 runners today is not the number this horse wants. The number of runners changes how a race is run.
TrackLab Insight
Kadjar Des Mottes has raced 13 times without a single win, though he's picked up four top-3 finishes to show he can run competitively. His most recent outings include pulled-up and unseated finishes, a sign of inconsistency and possible soundness concerns that make him a hard horse to back with confidence.
Winless from 13 career races
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £23.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has raced here 1 time without winning. This course has not suited the horse so far.
- No wins at this distance yet. We cannot tell if the race is too long, too short or just right.
- A 14-runner race works against this horse. Too many runners can mean getting boxed in. Too few can mean nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Famous Liss is winless from 12 races across seven years in the sport, with just one top-3 finish to his name—a record that tells its own story. He's been off 323 days and when he did race, he was well beaten, so expect him to struggle again rather than surprise.
Winless from 12 career races
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £29.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- An official rating of 98 is in this horse's favour. The rating comes from results, and this horse's number looks good.
- Has not raced for 165 days. That is a long time away, and we cannot be sure the horse will be fit enough.
- K. Hunter has a 0% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
Nitty Gritty finally broke his duck at Killarney after 14 races, but his form around that breakthrough is underwhelming: 7th beaten 29 lengths at Market Rasen is his most recent outing, and he's winless on both good and soft ground (0 from 9 combined). That single win offers hope but recent runs don't justify confidence.
Outsider at 25/1
What the colours mean
40+ Very strong chance
20–39 Strong chance
12–19 Solid chance
6–11 Could surprise
Under 6 Long shot
Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
- Underrated horse
- We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
- Our top pick
- The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
- TrackLab Score
- Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
- Ground
- How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
- Race level (Class)
- From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
- Group, Grade and Listed
- The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
- Handicap
- The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
- Maiden
- A race for horses that haven't won yet.
- Novice
- A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
- Chase, hurdle and bumper
- Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
- Distance (m and f)
- m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
- Each way
- A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
- Weight
- How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
- Jockey claim
- An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
- Headgear
- Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.