The improvement in his numbers tells its own story. Last year he was winning around 1 in every 11 races. This season that has crept up to 1 in every 9 — a small shift on paper, but in a sport where margins are everything, it signals a jockey who is learning, sharpening his judgement, and starting to earn better opportunities as a result. The (5) next to his name refers to a weight allowance he carries — a bonus given to less experienced riders to help them compete — and as that allowance reduces over time, holding his win rate steady or improving it will be the real test of whether this trajectory continues.
His strongest working relationship is with trainer K R Burke, a yard that knows how to place horses well and expects its jockeys to deliver. Nicholls has won 10 times from 82 rides for Burke — roughly 1 in every 8 — suggesting a partnership built on trust rather than just convenience. When a trainer keeps putting you up race after race, it means they like what they see.
Where Nicholls arguably stands out most is on fast, dry ground, where he wins at a rate of nearly 1 in every 5 races — 10 wins from 52 rides. That is a genuinely striking number and suggests he rides with a particular sharpness and confidence when conditions suit quick, front-running tactics. His record at Pontefract is also worth noting: 3 winners from just 7 rides at a track that has its own unusual demands, including a long uphill finish that catches plenty of jockeys out. Winning nearly half the time you ride there is the sort of local knowledge that takes time to build and is harder to acquire than it looks.
At 47 career winners and three years in, Nicholls is a jockey quietly doing the unglamorous work of becoming very good at a difficult job.
| Course | Races | Wins | Win rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wolverhampton | 49 | 4 | 8.2% |
| Newcastle | 40 | 3 | 7.5% |
| York | 19 | 0 | 0% |
| Southwell | 18 | 2 | 11.1% |
| Haydock Park | 15 | 2 | 13.3% |
| Thirsk | 13 | 1 | 7.7% |
| Redcar | 12 | 3 | 25% |
| Leicester | 11 | 2 | 18.2% |
| Ayr | 11 | 0 | 0% |
| Great Yarmouth | 10 | 1 | 10% |
| Doncaster | 10 | 0 | 0% |
| Lingfield Park | 10 | 0 | 0% |
| Newmarket | 9 | 2 | 22.2% |
| Hamilton Park | 9 | 2 | 22.2% |
| Carlisle | 9 | 0 | 0% |
| Ripon | 8 | 2 | 25% |
| Kempton Park | 8 | 0 | 0% |
| Pontefract | 7 | 3 | 42.9% |
| Catterick Bridge | 7 | 3 | 42.9% |
| Nottingham | 7 | 1 | 14.3% |
| Beverley | 5 | 1 | 20% |
| Epsom Downs | 5 | 1 | 20% |
| Musselburgh | 5 | 0 | 0% |
| Windsor | 4 | 0 | 0% |
| Bath | 3 | 0 | 0% |
| chelmsford | 3 | 0 | 0% |
| Wetherby | 3 | 0 | 0% |
| Ascot | 3 | 0 | 0% |
| Newbury | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| Chester | 2 | 1 | 50% |
| Chepstow | 2 | 0 | 0% |
| Goodwood | 2 | 0 | 0% |
| Salisbury | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| Brighton | 1 | 0 | 0% |