Seagolazo

What keeps the optimism alive is the quality of some of those near-misses. His trainer Hugo Palmer has pointed to a run at Doncaster last September where Seagolazo finished not far behind Camille Pissarro — a horse that went on to win the Grand Criterium Lagardere, one of the most prestigious juvenile races in Europe. In other words, Seagolazo was rubbing shoulders with genuinely top-class horses, which suggests his level is higher than a bare record of one win might imply. Palmer also reports that he has strengthened significantly over the winter, which at four is exactly when a horse can take the physical step forward that turns a solid performer into a proper one.

The distance range of seven furlongs to a mile suits him best — he has won 1 from 6 races at those trips, a 17% win rate compared to zero wins everywhere else. The problem has been the level he's asked to compete at. All six of his races at Class 2 — the upper tier of British racing — have ended without a win. That's not a disgrace; these are tough races. But it does mean he needs to find some improvement to break through at that level, and Palmer clearly believes this season could be the one where it happens. The trainer's mention of the Britannia — a prestigious race at Royal Ascot run over a mile — suggests real ambition for the summer.

He raced just yesterday, so he's bang in the thick of his season right now. With a shrewd handler in Palmer, whose yard has sent out 66 winners already this season, Seagolazo is in the right hands to make the most of whatever talent he has. Whether he can finally turn promise into prizes at the highest level is the question his season will answer.