Fidelius

What makes this patient wait worthwhile is the horse's track record when conditions suit him. On normal ground, Fidelius is genuinely dangerous, winning 6 of his 14 races there — a 43% win rate that puts him among the genuinely competitive animals in his yard. He is also a Chelmsford specialist, having won 2 of his 4 races at that track, a sign that there are courses where he simply knows how to do the job. Most impressively, Fidelius has won 4 of 10 races at Class 4 level (40% win rate), showing he belongs in that company and can be expected to compete hard when pitched against similar opposition.

There is also the Marco Ghiani factor. The jockey has ridden Fidelius five times and won twice — a 40% win rate that suggests genuine rapport between horse and rider. When Ghiani is back in the saddle on normal ground at a track where Fidelius thrives, the conditions will be right for the winning streak to resume. Tinkler himself sounds optimistic: the horse has had a strong winter with three wins and three places, and though recent efforts have disappointed, the trainer believes another victory is coming. At just six months away from his last win and still competing actively, Fidelius remains very much capable of delivering what his the yard expect of him.