Ms Sheila Lavery

The last 12 months, however, have been a tougher chapter. Lavery has sent out just 3 winners from 123 runners this season — roughly 1 in every 41 races — a win rate of 2% that represents a notable step back from the 6% she was delivering 12 months ago. To put that in perspective, she was previously winning about 1 in every 17 races; now it is closer to 1 in 40. That kind of dip is worth watching, because it can reflect horses running below form, an unlucky spell, or simply a yard going through a transitional period. Whether this is a blip or something more structural is the key question for anyone following her runners.

Her most regular jockey partnership is with Robbie Colgan, who has partnered her horses on 54 occasions but converted just 1 of those into a winner — again that 2% figure. Fifty-four rides together without much to show for it suggests either a period where the horses simply have not been firing, or that the combination is still searching for its best form together. Meanwhile, her partnership with Sagasti has produced nothing from 3 races, though three runs together is a small enough sample that it would be unfair to read too much into it.

One brighter note: on normal ground conditions, Lavery's horses have won 2 from 38 races at a rate of around 5% — more than double her overall seasonal average. That suggests when conditions suit, the yard is capable of producing something closer to its better form, and it is a useful pointer for anyone watching which races her runners are likely to show up best in.