Salah Belle

The five-year-old landed its first win at Dundalk in December 2023, then backed that up with a second victory at The Curragh in June 2024. That second win matters, because The Curragh is Ireland's most prestigious flat track — the kind of place where the best horses in the country turn up. Winning there, even once, tells you the horse is capable of something. The trouble is that was 22 months ago, and Salah Belle hasn't won since, going winless across its last six races. The most recent form reads 8-3-3-5-5-7 — a third and another third in there, but nothing converted. Coming off a 58-day break, it returns fresher than it has been in a while, which at least removes one excuse.

Where it does look genuinely competitive is at the shorter distances. Over five to six-and-a-half furlongs, Salah Belle has won 2 from 8 races — that's 1 in every 4 — which is a meaningful jump from its overall record and suggests the horse is at its best when races are run at a sharp, quick pace rather than grinding it out over further. If Lavery, who has sent out 4 winners already this season, pitches this horse into the right race at the right trip, those numbers give you reason to pay attention.

Jockey Robbie Colgan has been on board for most of the partnership's history — 12 of the 17 races — and both wins have come with him in the saddle. That's 2 wins from 12 rides together, or about 1 in 6, which is noticeably better than the horse's overall average and suggests the two have built something of an understanding. The combination of a fresh horse, a compatible jockey, and the right distance could be what it takes to end that 22-month drought. It's not a guarantee, but it's a combination worth watching.