Wolverhampton
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Attheraces.com/marketmovers Handicap Stakes
Starts in
5h 16min
Tapeta surface
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score
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40+ Very strong chance
20–39 Strong chance
12–19 Solid chance
6–11 Could surprise
Under 6 Long shot
Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
- Underrated horse
- We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
- Our top pick
- The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
- TrackLab Score
- Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
- Ground
- How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
- Race level (Class)
- From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
- Group, Grade and Listed
- The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
- Handicap
- The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
- Maiden
- A race for horses that haven't won yet.
- Novice
- A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
- Chase, hurdle and bumper
- Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
- Distance (m and f)
- m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
- Each way
- A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
- Weight
- How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
- Jockey claim
- An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
- Headgear
- Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.
£1 wins £3.50 · 22 Strong chance
Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice
22
Our top pick for this race
Strong chance
Odds 7/2
£1 wins £3.50 · 22 Strong chance
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £4.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- A 22.7% win rate at this course for O. Murphy. Jockeys who know a track well can pick the best ground and time their run.
- A 0% record at this course for A. King. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
Albertini Star is the market favourite at 11/4 after a breakthrough win at Sandown just 33 days ago, and she had picked up three top-3 finishes in her previous four races before that. However, she has run just once here (a third-place finish 62 days ago), and her record on good-to-firm ground is poor (0 wins from 3), though today's normal conditions are more neutral.
3 straight top-3 finishes
Market favourite (11/4)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £7.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has raced 3 times on this ground with a low win rate. Today's ground may not suit it.
- Has raced here 1 time without winning. This course has not suited the horse so far.
- Being a gelding is a small worry. Past results suggest this race slightly favours a different type of horse.
TrackLab Insight
Moonjid has won just twice from 21 races and arrives here on the back of a third-place finish at this track 14 days ago, but form has been patchy with an eighth at Yarmouth just before that. The horse wins on faster ground (14% on good, 17% on good-to-firm) but has never won on standard ground or good-to-soft, a worry given today's normal conditions at Wolverhampton.
Among the more experienced (21 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £5.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- With £3,978 in prize money, this is a competitive race. The horse has been entered for a reason.
- Has had 52 career runs, so it is an experienced racehorse. Experience helps in a tough race.
- M. Keady has a 3.3% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
Renesmee is the most experienced horse here with 52 races and knows how to win (6 victories), including one at this track and distance, but her current form is concerning with a 12th-place finish at Nottingham just 18 days ago. She's won 2 from 11 on good ground and has a strong partnership with jockey Kyle McHugh (38% together), but doesn't get on with this track's layout, struggling on right-handed galloping courses.
Has won over this course and distance
Best record at this trip (1 from 3)
Most experienced (52 runs, field avg 17)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £7.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- No wins at this distance yet. We cannot tell if the race is too long, too short or just right.
- J. Owen wins 17.6% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
- This horse is not suited by Standard ground. The ground can change a horse's chances a lot.
TrackLab Insight
No Knee Never is a course specialist at Wolverhampton with 3 wins from 6 races there—a 50% win rate that dwarfs his overall 12% win rate—and he was successful here just 21 days ago. He also has an excellent record on standard ground (5 wins from 22 starts, 23%), which perfectly suits today's conditions, making him the standout fit for this race despite carrying no obvious advantage on paper.
Course specialist (3 wins from 6 here)
9
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £7.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A 17.1% win rate at this course for Dr R. Newland. Trainers who know a course often send out their horses well suited to it.
- A 17.5% overall win rate for Dr R. Newland. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
- This horse is not suited by Standard ground. The ground can change a horse's chances a lot.
TrackLab Insight
The Anthony Gover has won 2 of his last 3 races, both at Wolverhampton within the past month, and has an excellent record on standard ground (2 wins from 6 starts, 33%) that perfectly suits today. His 18% career win rate is respectable and his recent form shows he's figured out how to win, though he has no experience with good-to-firm ground and this is his first outing with today's jockey.
Course specialist (2 wins from 5 here)
3 straight top-3 finishes
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £9.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- A 12.4% overall win rate for C. Johnston. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
- Has had 27 days off since its last race. That is a routine gap that should not help or hurt.
TrackLab Insight
Blue Mantle is still searching for his first win after six starts, but recent form shows improvement with two top-3 finishes (2nd and 3rd) in his last two races before a 27-day break. He carries the lowest weight in the field and has time on his side as a three-year-old, but the gap between placing and winning remains to be bridged.
Relatively inexperienced (6 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £15.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A 33% win rate on this ground from 3 runs. Just like people, horses have favourite surfaces. This one likes today's ground.
- Has run 1 time at this track with no wins yet. Some horses do not take to some courses.
- This horse is not suited by Standard ground. The ground can change a horse's chances a lot.
TrackLab Insight
Sea The Light has been away from the track for 105 days—the longest absence in this field—and that layoff is a major question mark despite his one win from eight races overall. He does have the best record on standard ground (1 win from 3), which suits today's conditions, but his recent form before the break was weak and the return from such a long absence makes him unpredictable.
Best record on this ground (1 from 3)
Absent 105 days (longest in field)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £17.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- D. O'Meara has won 12.0% of their races in their career. Trainers at this level know how to get horses ready.
- 11 runners today is not the number this horse wants. The number of runners changes how a race is run.
TrackLab Insight
Reveur is lightly raced with just 3 career attempts and has not won any of them, finishing 11th, 10th and 6th across those outings. The three-year-old is unproven and faces a significant step up in competition here, though David O'Meara's yard has a strong record overall with 50 wins from 453 races with jockey Mark Winn.
Lightly raced (3 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £13.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- Has raced here 2 times without winning. This course has not suited the horse so far.
- Has had 21 days off since its last race. That is a routine gap that should not help or hurt.
TrackLab Insight
Celtic Chariot has the best career win rate in this field at 22% (2 wins from 9 races), and won both his victories in recent form with two wins in July, but has since struggled with three consecutive finishes outside the top three. He excels on good-to-firm ground (2 wins from 5), which doesn't match today's normal conditions, and hasn't finished in the top three since those two wins two months ago.
Best career win rate in field (1 in 4)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £17.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- J. Owen wins 19.3% of their races at this course. Some trainers aim horses at particular tracks, and this one does well here.
- Handles this ground well, with 27% of its races won on it. The ground can change a horse's chances a lot.
- This horse is not suited by Standard ground. The ground can change a horse's chances a lot.
TrackLab Insight
Little Miss India mirrors No Knee Never as a Wolverhampton specialist with 2 wins from 6 races at the track—far above her overall 13% win rate—and won at this exact course and distance. Recent form is weak (7th just 14 days ago), but her record on standard ground is strong (3 wins from 11), and the partnership with trainer James Owen and jockey Ashley Lewis has been productive together.
Course specialist (2 wins from 6 here)
Has won over this course and distance
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £34.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- This type of ground has not suited the horse: 3 runs without much success. Some horses prefer different ground.
- H. Davies wins 12.3% of all their races. That is a strong record. A jockey who wins often gives a horse a better chance.
- A weight disadvantage of 6.2 lbs compared with the average for this race. Racing is decided by small margins, and weight matters.
TrackLab Insight
Man of Desert is the lowest-rated runner in the field (59, eight pounds below average) and has never won in 16 attempts despite 16 races—only two top-3 finishes to his name. Recent form offers nothing to suggest a breakthrough, with three seventh-place finishes in his last four outings, and he remains winless everywhere including seven attempts at Great Yarmouth.
Lowest rated, 8lbs below average
Carries lowest weight in field