Newmarket

Three top-three finishes in a row is a promising run of form, but like Military Academy, this horse has never raced on dry ground — every career race has come on a softer or artificial surface — which is a real unknown at Newmarket today. He also comes in rated 7lbs below the field average, making him the lowest-rated horse in the race alongside Nolton Cross, and he needs to step up significantly in class. Useful recent form, but too many questions about how he'll handle these conditions.

The most experienced horse in the field by far, with 34 career races compared to the field average of 15, but that experience hasn't translated into consistent success — winning roughly 1 in every 11 races. His last three runs have all been poor, and his record on dry ground is a major concern, with zero wins from eight attempts on this type of surface. At 26.0 and drifting in the market, this looks like a tough ask.

The most glaring concern here is that Military Academy has never raced on dry ground — every single one of his 16 career races has come on a softer or artificial surface — so today represents a completely unknown test. His odds have drifted sharply from 21s out to 34s, suggesting the market shares that worry. Until we see him handle these conditions, it's hard to make a case for him despite his previous wins.

Carries the lowest weight in the field, which is an advantage in a race like this, but his record on dry ground is a serious problem — no wins from three attempts on fast ground, despite winning regularly on artificial surfaces. All six of his career wins have come on all-weather tracks, and Newmarket on a dry summer's day is a very different proposition. His odds drifting out to 36.0 tells its own story.