Newcastle
·
Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Handicap
Awaiting result
Tapeta surface
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score
18+ | Gamble responsibly: BeGambleAware.org Ad: we earn commission if you join a bookmaker via our links.
40+ Very strong chance
20–39 Strong chance
12–19 Solid chance
6–11 Could surprise
Under 6 Long shot
Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
- Underrated horse
- We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
- Our top pick
- The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
- TrackLab Score
- Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
- Ground
- How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
- Race level (Class)
- From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
- Group, Grade and Listed
- The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
- Handicap
- The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
- Maiden
- A race for horses that haven't won yet.
- Novice
- A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
- Chase, hurdle and bumper
- Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
- Distance (m and f)
- m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
- Each way
- A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
- Weight
- How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
- Jockey claim
- An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
- Headgear
- Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.
£1 wins £4 · 21 Strong chance
Wins 22% of the time on this type of ground
21
Our top pick for this race
Strong chance
Odds 4/1
£1 wins £4 · 21 Strong chance
Underrated horse
We think it's more likely to win than the odds suggest, so if it wins, it pays more than it should. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £5.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Wins 22% of the time on this type of ground. Some horses run much better on soft or firm ground. This one suits today's ground.
- An experienced horse with 55 career runs. Experienced horses tend to be steadier and less likely to run badly.
- A 14-runner race works against this horse. Too many runners can mean getting boxed in. Too few can mean nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
The clear standout in this field: the best career win rate here at roughly 1 in 7, the market favourite, and the only runner with a proven record on today's slow ground — winning 2 from 9 races in these conditions. He's also a course specialist at Newcastle with 3 wins from 22 races here, making him comfortably the most suited horse to today's specific combination of track and conditions. Two close finishes at Carlisle in the last three weeks suggest he's in good order right now.
Best record on this ground (2 from 9)
Best career win rate in field (1 in 7)
Market favourite (5.1)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £8.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A 15.7% win rate at this course for B. Haslam. Trainers who know a course often send out their horses well suited to it.
- Racing against weaker rivals than last time. Think of a Premier League team playing in the Championship. The drop in level helps.
- This is a 14-runner race, and the size is not ideal. A big field means more traffic. A small field means nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
The standout stat for Tickets is his record over 6 furlongs: 3 wins from 16 races at this exact distance, the best record at today's trip in the field. He's also a genuine Newcastle specialist with 3 wins from 21 races here. The last three runs have been modest — three fifth and sixth-place finishes — but the combination of course and distance knowledge makes him interesting at 7.5.
Best record at this trip (3 from 16)
Underrated horse
We think it's more likely to win than the odds suggest, so if it wins, it pays more than it should. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £13.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- No wins at this distance yet. We cannot tell if the race is too long, too short or just right.
- B. Robinson wins 40% of their races at this course. Knowing the track is an advantage for any jockey.
- A 14-runner race works against this horse. Too many runners can mean getting boxed in. Too few can mean nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Has never raced on slow ground before, which is a real unknown heading into today. Rated 6lbs above the field average, so the handicapper thinks well of him on paper, but one win from 25 races and zero wins in 10 attempts at Newcastle tells a frustrating story. The dramatic drift in odds from 1.1 to 8.6 suggests those closest to him are not expecting much.
Never raced on slow ground
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £10.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A. Paul Keatley has a good 27.3% record here. A trainer who does well at one course is worth noting.
- Has yet to win over this distance. It is like asking a sprinter to run a marathon. Distance matters, and this horse has not shown it can win here.
- A 14-runner race works against this horse. Too many runners can mean getting boxed in. Too few can mean nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Like several rivals today, Tommy McJohn has never raced on slow ground, so conditions are a fresh test. One win from 20 races is a modest record, and the last three runs — seventh, fifth, third — show no real improvement in form. The jockey-trainer partnership here has won just 2 from 28 races together, which is not an encouraging signal.
Never raced on slow ground
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £8.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Facing weaker rivals than last time out. When a horse drops to an easier race, it often finds things easier.
- A prize fund of £4,711 is healthy. When trainers aim at valuable races, they usually have faith in their runner.
- A 4.9% record at this course for P. Niven. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
Arrives on the back of a win at Carlisle just 11 days ago, giving her the most recent winning form in the field. Today's distance of 6 furlongs suits her well — she wins roughly 1 in 5 races at this trip. The catch is that she has never raced on slow ground before, so today's conditions are uncharted territory despite her confidence-boosting recent victory.
Never raced on slow ground
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £11.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Dropped to an easier race today. It is like being the big fish in a smaller pond. The lower standard should suit.
- T. Eaves has won 7.8% of their races in their career. That steady record counts for a lot.
- A. Brown has a 5.8% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
One win from 30 races is a tough record to look past, and that sole win came in a much higher-class race back in 2023 — she hasn't won since across 20+ attempts. She has never raced on slow ground and has failed to win at Newcastle in 8 previous tries here. The odds of 21.0 reflect the scale of the task.
Never raced on slow ground
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £8.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Dropped to an easier race today. It is like being the big fish in a smaller pond. The lower standard should suit.
- Finished 2nd in the last race, which is a good result. A good last run suggests the horse is in good shape.
- A 3.3% record at this course for S. Waugh. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
Comes here in reasonable recent form — second and third in his last two races — and is back just six days after running at Ayr, which shows the stable is keen to strike while the iron is hot. However, he has never raced on slow ground before and his best form has come over longer distances of 7 furlongs to a mile, so today's 6 furlongs on this surface is a step into the unknown.
Never raced on slow ground
Runs again after just 6 days
£1 wins £18 · 5 Long shot
J. Mason has won 10.4% of their races in their career
5
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £19.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- J. Mason has won 10.4% of their races in their career. That steady record counts for a lot.
- There is £4,711 in prize money in this race. That attracts good horses, and this one looks to belong among them.
- 14 runners today is not the number this horse wants. The number of runners changes how a race is run.
TrackLab Insight
The most experienced horse in the field by a distance — 68 career races compared to a field average of 28 — so there are no surprises left for this nine-year-old. He does have a small positive record on slow-style ground with 1 win from 7 races, but recent form reads eighth and sixth, and at odds of 34.0 the market sees little chance of a turnaround.
Most experienced (68 runs, field avg 28)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £20.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- S. James wins 23.8% of their races at this course. Knowing the track is an advantage for any jockey.
- Racing against weaker rivals than last time. Think of a Premier League team playing in the Championship. The drop in level helps.
- C. Lidster wins only 0% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
Carries the joint-lowest weight in the race, which gives him a small physical advantage, but 12 races without a single win is difficult to ignore. He has never raced on slow ground before and a 13th-place finish at Doncaster last month suggests he's not in the best of form. Hard to make a case for him winning here.
Carries lowest weight in field
Never raced on slow ground
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £16.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- An average finish of 4 over the last three races. Finishing near the front this often is a good sign.
- There is £4,711 in prize money in this race. That attracts good horses, and this one looks to belong among them.
- This is a 14-runner race, and the size is not ideal. A big field means more traffic. A small field means nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Still looking for a first career win after 15 races, but her form has quietly been improving — third last time out at Nottingham is her best recent result. She has never raced on slow ground before, which adds uncertainty, though a third-place finish 15 days ago at least suggests she arrives in reasonable nick. Jockey P J McDonald is an upgrade in the saddle and could help her run to her best.
Never raced on slow ground
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £34.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- There is £4,711 in prize money in this race. That attracts good horses, and this one looks to belong among them.
- A 0% record at this course for M. Young. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
One of only a handful of course winners in this field, having won at Newcastle before, but that victory came back in September 2024 and the form since has been poor — eighth, eleventh, seventh in the last three runs. An eighth-place finish at Bath just 35 days ago on good ground does nothing to suggest a revival is imminent. At odds of 31.0, the market has little faith.
One of few course winners (1 wins here)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £34.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- An experienced horse with 48 career runs. Experienced horses tend to be steadier and less likely to run badly.
- There is £4,711 in prize money in this race. That attracts good horses, and this one looks to belong among them.
- K. Burke wins only 0% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
At 49 career races, Vitalline is one of the most experienced horses in the field, and he does have a decent record on conditions similar to today — winning 2 from 14 races on slow-adjacent ground. The recent form is uninspiring though, with three finishes of fifth, eighth and sixth, and he has never won on a left-handed galloping track in 15 attempts, which covers Newcastle. A tough ask.
Among the more experienced (49 career races)
1
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £67.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- Has not won at this distance before. We do not know if the race length suits the horse.
- 14 runners today is not the number this horse wants. The number of runners changes how a race is run.
TrackLab Insight
One of only two course winners in this field, having won at Newcastle before, but the recent form is deeply worrying — her last six runs all finished between eighth and twelfth place. She does show her best form on softer ground, but the slow conditions today haven't helped her in the past. Hard to see where the improvement comes from.
One of few course winners (1 wins here)
14
Sally Anne's Dream
£1 wins £125 · 1 Long shot
A low win rate on this ground from 3 previous runs
1
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £126.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A low win rate on this ground from 3 previous runs. The ground could work against the horse today.
- Facing weaker rivals than last time out. When a horse drops to an easier race, it often finds things easier.
- A 5.4% record at this course for S. Spencer. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
Returns after a seven-month absence, the longest lay-off of any horse in this field by some margin. In 12 career races she has not once finished in the top three — not a single place finish — which is the most barren record in the field. The combination of a lengthy absence, no previous form on slow ground, and the longest odds in the race at 71.0 makes it very difficult to find a positive angle here.
Lowest rated, 3lbs below average
Absent 213 days (longest in field)