Newbury
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Apprentice Handicap Stakes (Final) (Part Of The Racing Excellence Initiative)
Awaiting result
Turf track
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score
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14
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- This is an 8-runner race, and the size suits this horse. Some horses prefer a small field with less traffic. Others do well in a crowd.
- J. Moore & Josh Moore has a 0% overall win rate, which is on the low side. That may mean the horse is not at its best.
TrackLab Insight
The favourite at 1/10 with a puzzling recent record: wins roughly 1 in 8 races overall, but won half her races on fast, dry ground at Lingfield in August — conditions that won't be here today. On wet ground at Newbury, she has never won and finished 9th here 175 days ago; the track and conditions both work against her despite the short odds.
Market favourite (1/10)
Unfancied in the market despite a high rating
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- 8 runners today is a good number for this horse. The number of runners affects how a race is run.
- Racing against weaker rivals than last time. Think of a Premier League team playing in the Championship. The drop in level helps.
- J. & A.J. O'Neill wins only 6.2% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
Six-year-old with a respectable 12% win rate across 25 races but struggling for consistency: his last three finishes read 3rd-4th-4th, yet he's never won on standard ground (0 from 9 starts). This is a horse that needs specific conditions to shine, and wet ground at a left-handed galloping track doesn't match his profile.
Best record at this trip (1 from 5)
Unfancied in the market despite a high rating
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- 8 runners today is a good number for this horse. The number of runners affects how a race is run.
- With £5,757 in prize money, this is a competitive race. The horse has been entered for a reason.
- D. Menuisier has not had many runners lately, so their recent form is unclear.
TrackLab Insight
Just broke through for her first win at Haydock last week after eight races without success, and has now strung together three consecutive top-3 finishes — a genuine improvement in form. At 4 years old she shows real ability over this distance (winning roughly 1 in 3 races at 1m6f–2m), but she has never won on wet or muddy ground: that's a significant concern in these conditions.
3 straight top-3 finishes
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- 8 runners today is a good number for this horse. The number of runners affects how a race is run.
- M. Usher has won 6.7% of their races in their career. Trainers at this level know how to get horses ready.
- A 4.7% career win rate for A. Perkins. That is on the low side and could matter today.
TrackLab Insight
Four-year-old with two wins from 16 races, but her strength lies in a narrow band: she's won half her races at 1m3f–1m4f and thrives on soft or muddy ground (winning 1 in 3 starts there). This race is 2 miles — well beyond her ideal distance — and while the ground suits her, the extra trip is a real stretch.
Mid-range in the market (1/10)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- An 8-runner race works well for this horse. The number of runners changes the pace and how much room a horse has.
- With 37 races behind it, this horse knows what to expect. Experienced runners tend to cope better with pressure.
- J. Scott has not had many runners lately, so their recent form is unclear.
TrackLab Insight
Six-year-old with 37 races under his belt and four wins to his name, most recently winning at Class 2 level in September; he wins roughly once every 9 starts. His form reads 4th-5th-4th in the last three outings, and he has a decent record on standard ground (winning 2 in 7), but has never won on wet or muddy ground and hasn't been competitive at Kempton.
One of the more successful in the field (4 career wins)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- This is an 8-runner race, and the size suits this horse. Some horses prefer a small field with less traffic. Others do well in a crowd.
- J. Bradnam has a 4.8% overall win rate, which is lower than we would like to see. A jockey who wins less often can hold back even a good horse.
TrackLab Insight
Five-year-old mare in good form: she won at Pontefract just 18 days ago and finished 3rd at Ffos Las before that, showing real momentum. She wins roughly 1 in 8 races and prefers good ground (winning 1 in 3 starts there), but has never won on wet or muddy ground — a significant weakness for a 2-mile race run in these conditions.
Top-3 finishes in 2 of last 3 races
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- This type of ground has not suited the horse: 3 runs without much success. Some horses prefer different ground.
- 8 runners today is a good number for this horse. The number of runners affects how a race is run.
- K. McHugh has a 5.4% overall win rate, which is lower than we would like to see. A jockey who wins less often can hold back even a good horse.
TrackLab Insight
Six-year-old with the best win rate in the field at roughly 1 in 7 races (4 wins from 29 starts) and genuinely suited by long-distance racing (winning 1 in 5 over 2m+). He likes soft and good-to-soft ground and is in the mix here, but his recent form is patchy (2nd-9th-3rd) and he's never won on standard ground or when the surface is good-to-firm.
Best career win rate in field (1 in 7)
£1 wins 10p · 12 Solid chance
Has had 64 career runs, so it is an experienced racehorse
12
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has had 64 career runs, so it is an experienced racehorse. Experience helps in a tough race.
- An 8-runner race works well for this horse. The number of runners changes the pace and how much room a horse has.
- A 0% record at this course for K. & Lauren Frost. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
Six-year-old carrying the lowest weight in the field and the least demanding rating, with 65 races of hard racing behind him — far more experienced than his rivals (field average 26 races). He won at Nottingham just 22 days ago and has the best record on soft ground (3 wins in 13 starts, 23%); this could be his type, but he's poor on standard ground and has never won on good-to-soft despite facing both conditions regularly.
Lowest rated, 9lbs below average
Carries lowest weight in field
Best record on this ground (3 from 13)
Most experienced (65 runs, field avg 26)
What the colours mean
40+ Very strong chance
20–39 Strong chance
12–19 Solid chance
6–11 Could surprise
Under 6 Long shot
Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
- Underrated horse
- We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
- Our top pick
- The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
- TrackLab Score
- Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
- Ground
- How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
- Race level (Class)
- From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
- Group, Grade and Listed
- The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
- Handicap
- The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
- Maiden
- A race for horses that haven't won yet.
- Novice
- A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
- Chase, hurdle and bumper
- Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
- Distance (m and f)
- m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
- Each way
- A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
- Weight
- How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
- Jockey claim
- An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
- Headgear
- Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.