Noble Grace

The numbers tell an interesting story about what conditions suit this horse best. On normal ground, Noble Grace has won 2 from 6 races—a 33% win rate that stands out sharply against its overall 13% record (2 wins from 15 races). The sweet spot appears to be distances around a mile and three to four furlongs, where the horse has won 1 from 3 races, again at 33%. Feed these two facts together and you have a horse that plainly thrives in particular circumstances—get it on the right ground at the right trip and it performs like an entirely different proposition.

Where Noble Grace has struggled is in top-company races. It has tackled the highest-level Class 4 races three times and managed nothing better than minor placings. The horse competes much more comfortably in smaller fields at lower grades, which is not unusual but worth knowing. There is also the curious fact that James Bowen, the horse's most frequent jockey, has ridden it seven times without a win, yet two winners have come in that timeframe—so different riders have found success where Bowen has not.

Warren Greatrex, who trains Noble Grace at Upper Lambourn, has a yard in strong form with 50 winners already this season, so the infrastructure is there to support horses in good nick. Noble Grace itself still looks like a horse with room for improvement, particularly if the trainer can keep it on normal ground at the distances where it has proved it can win.