Newbury
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Renegade Brewery Fillies' Handicap Stakes (GBBPlus Race)
Awaiting result
Turf track
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score
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Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Racing against weaker rivals than last time. Think of a Premier League team playing in the Championship. The drop in level helps.
- T. Marquand wins 14.7% of their races at this course. Knowing the track is an advantage for any jockey.
- 14 runners today is not the number this horse wants. The number of runners changes how a race is run.
TrackLab Insight
Steps up sharply in class after a third-place finish at Goodwood, but has never raced on wet ground and faces a decisive test at this level. Holds the best win rate in the field at roughly one in three races, yet sits at the wrong end of the draw (13) on a track where the low numbers have a clear edge. Odds of 1/10 reflect her rating advantage, though recent form and ground conditions represent genuine uncertainties.
Steps up 2 classes
Never raced on wet ground
Best career win rate in field (1 in 3)
Market favourite (1/10)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- C. Pike has a good 20% record here. A trainer who does well at one course is worth noting.
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- 14 runners today is not the number this horse wants. The number of runners changes how a race is run.
TrackLab Insight
Currently on a run of form with three consecutive top-3 finishes, including two wins at Salisbury and Kempton in the last six weeks—the most impressive recent sequence in the field. Draws the low number (1) which suits Newbury's bias, and the win rate of one in three races matches the best of her rivals. However, ground conditions remain untested, and the slim defeat to Kempton last time out shows she is not bulletproof at present.
3 straight top-3 finishes
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- H. Palmer wins 14.4% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
- Dropped to an easier race today. It is like being the big fish in a smaller pond. The lower standard should suit.
- 14 runners today is not the number this horse wants. The number of runners changes how a race is run.
TrackLab Insight
Has never raced on wet ground and that absence of evidence is significant given the forecast conditions—her two wins at this trip came on different surfaces. Draws a low number (3) which suits Newbury, and her recent Chester victory shows she can still win, but the seventh-place finish at Newmarket ten days ago is a concerning step backwards. Wins roughly one in five races on her record.
Never raced on wet ground
Best record at this trip (2 from 4)
Unfancied in the market despite a high rating
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Facing weaker rivals than last time out. When a horse drops to an easier race, it often finds things easier.
- A low win rate on this ground from 4 previous runs. The ground could work against the horse today.
- J. S. Moore wins only 2.2% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
Rated 9lbs above the field average but has struggled badly on soft ground with zero wins from four attempts—a critical weakness given today's conditions. A 40-day gap since the heavy defeat at Doncaster makes timing questionable, and the win rate of one in ten races tells you this is a modest performer. The one bright spot is an excellent record on good-to-soft surfaces, though this race will be wetter than that.
Unfancied in the market despite a high rating
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A 14.3% overall win rate for D. Pipe. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
- An 11.6% overall win rate for F. Marsh. Good jockeys make better decisions during a race.
- A 14-runner race works against this horse. Too many runners can mean getting boxed in. Too few can mean nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Returning from a 581-day absence after winning a Class 1 race at Doncaster last January—a long layoff that introduces significant uncertainty about her readiness. The Class 1 victory and win rate of one in three suggest real quality when firing, but she has never raced on wet ground and the extended time away is a substantial question mark. A 12-month break is a big ask for any horse, regardless of ability.
Never raced on wet ground
Absent 581 days (longest in field)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- No wins at this distance yet. We cannot tell if the race is too long, too short or just right.
- Its average finish over the last three runs is 2.3. That is steady. Horses that finish near the front often do so again.
- This is a 14-runner race, and the size is not ideal. A big field means more traffic. A small field means nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Has never raced on wet ground, which is a notable concern on a day like this, and the 56-day gap since finishing fourth at Goodwood means she is coming back from a break. Just one win in seven races tells you she is capable but inconsistent, and the recent form (4th, 2nd, 1st) was built on better ground conditions than she will face today. Wins roughly one in every seven races on her record.
Never raced on wet ground
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- M. Usher wins 6.7% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
- With an average finish of 4.7 in recent runs, this horse keeps finishing close to the front. It would not need much luck to win.
- M. Usher wins only 3.5% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
Lightly raced with just three career runs and no wins, though the second-place finish at Nottingham 120 days ago showed promise that the more recent seventh at Kempton has erased. Has never been tested on wet ground and that inexperience combined with minimal data makes assessment difficult. At this early stage, there simply isn't enough evidence to know how she will handle today's conditions.
Never raced on wet ground
Lightly raced (3 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- J. Channon wins 14.6% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
- Ran well last time out. A good recent run often carries over to the next race.
- This is a 14-runner race, and the size is not ideal. A big field means more traffic. A small field means nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Lightly raced (three career runs) with a win rate of one in three, but has been off the track for eight months despite the profile stating a 240-day absence—the data itself is unclear on her fitness. Has never raced on wet ground and the extended break combined with ground conditions she is unproven in presents major questions. Limited racing experience and a long layoff make her a difficult proposition in these circumstances.
Never raced on wet ground
Lightly raced (3 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- E. Johnson Houghton wins 10.7% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
- A 14-runner race works against this horse. Too many runners can mean getting boxed in. Too few can mean nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Won two of her last six races including a victory at Goodwood six weeks ago, showing genuine improvement in current form and a win rate of one in four overall. Draws high (14) at a course where the high numbers have a 1% historical win rate, which is a significant disadvantage. The jockey-trainer combination has a strong record, but the draw and recent seventh-place finish at Nottingham suggest she is vulnerable here.
One of the more successful in the field (2 career wins)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A 12.3% overall win rate for R. Hannon. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
- Dropped to an easier race today. It is like being the big fish in a smaller pond. The lower standard should suit.
- A 14-runner race works against this horse. Too many runners can mean getting boxed in. Too few can mean nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
The only course winner in the field with a victory at Newbury on 18 July, giving her genuine course experience that matters today. Has never raced on wet ground and recent form is poor with a ninth-place finish at Nottingham just 16 days ago—she has won only once in ten races overall. The course win is a real asset, but current form and ground conditions untested work against her here.
Only course winner (1 from 4 here)
Never raced on wet ground
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- This type of ground has not suited the horse: 13 runs without much success. Some horses prefer different ground.
- Finished 1st in the last race, which is a good result. A good last run suggests the horse is in good shape.
- J. Fox wins only 1.2% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
By far the most experienced horse in the field with 33 career races, and she has the best record on heavy ground with two wins from five attempts—a genuine advantage given today's conditions. Incredibly, all six of her career wins have come at Bath, where she has won six of ten races; everywhere else she has zero wins from 23 attempts, which is a stark warning sign. Won Bath just 15 days ago but this course and track combination are completely foreign to her.
Best record on this ground (2 from 13)
Most experienced (33 runs, field avg 8)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- A 12.3% overall win rate for R. Hannon. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
- A 14-runner race works against this horse. Too many runners can mean getting boxed in. Too few can mean nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Has never raced on wet ground and recent form has deteriorated with a ninth-place finish at Kempton 18 days ago after a steady run of races. Just one win in seven races and zero wins from three attempts on good ground suggest she needs genuinely soft surfaces to show her best, though paradoxically she has never been tested in truly wet conditions. The data is thin and recent form is poor, making her difficult to fancy.
Outsider at 1/10
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- A prize fund of £7,328 is healthy. When trainers aim at valuable races, they usually have faith in their runner.
- A 0% record at this course for J. Tickle. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
Rated 7lbs below the field average and winless from six races, though she has finished in the top three on three occasions including a fourth at Bath just 15 days ago. Has never won a race and shows only modest consistency—the recent form (4-3-4-6-3-2) reveals a horse that is competitive but still searching for a breakthrough. This is early-stage form with limited data, and she remains unproven on wet ground.
Outsider at 1/10
£1 wins 10p · 7 Could surprise
E. Greatrex has won 12.4% of their races in their career
7
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- E. Greatrex has won 12.4% of their races in their career. That steady record counts for a lot.
- R. Beckett has won 16.1% of their races in their career. Trainers at this level know how to get horses ready.
- A 14-runner race works against this horse. Too many runners can mean getting boxed in. Too few can mean nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Rated lowest in the field at 8lbs below average and carries the lightest weight, yet has run just twice without managing a win or a top-3 finish—an inauspicious record. Never raced on wet ground and the 27-day gap since finishing fifth at Southwell suggests the horse is either being carefully brought along or struggling to find a winning moment. At two races with zero top-3 finishes, there is simply not enough evidence to suggest she belongs in this company.
Lowest rated, 8lbs below average
Carries lowest weight in field
Never raced on wet ground
Lightly raced (2 career races)
What the colours mean
40+ Very strong chance
20–39 Strong chance
12–19 Solid chance
6–11 Could surprise
Under 6 Long shot
Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
- Underrated horse
- We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
- Our top pick
- The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
- TrackLab Score
- Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
- Ground
- How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
- Race level (Class)
- From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
- Group, Grade and Listed
- The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
- Handicap
- The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
- Maiden
- A race for horses that haven't won yet.
- Novice
- A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
- Chase, hurdle and bumper
- Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
- Distance (m and f)
- m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
- Each way
- A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
- Weight
- How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
- Jockey claim
- An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
- Headgear
- Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.