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Kelso

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Clifford, Martin & Sarah Firth Memorial Novices' Handicap Steeple Chase (Go North Forgive 'N Forget Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)
Starts in
13h 24min
Jumps race · big fences · weighted to be fair Underrated horse: Realisation About 3 miles Good ground Standard race 5 runners £5,281 prize money E/W: also pays on 2nd, at 1/4 odds
Turf track
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score

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J. Power · L. Russell & Michael Scudamore · 6yo · 12st 0lb · Official rating 109
£1 wins £1.75 · 30 Strong chance
5 runners today is a good number for this horse
Headgear Freshness
30
Our top pick for this race
Strong chance
Odds 7/4
£1 wins £1.75 · 30 Strong chance
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £2.75 back.

How odds work
✓ Field size ✓ Event type ✓ Race distance
Wearing tongue strap Back after 190 days off Won 1 of last 5 Raced here before
Why this score
  • 5 runners today is a good number for this horse. The number of runners affects how a race is run.
  • A Chase Turf race works in this horse's favour. Horses often do best in one type of race and struggle in others.
  • This trainer's horses often do not finish their races. That makes them harder to trust.
TrackLab Insight
The market favourite carries top weight and has won roughly 1 in 5 races, but here's the catch: she's never raced on normal ground before, making this an unknown test despite her recent Class 4 win at Ayr. Jockey Jack Power and trainers Russell & Scudamore have a decent record together, and the mare shows strength on softer surfaces, but stepping into unfamiliar territory at a new track distance on an untested surface is a real question mark.
Never raced on normal ground Market favourite (11/4)
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £3.75 back.

How odds work
Back after 231 days off Won 0 of last 5 Raced here before
Why this score
  • A 5-runner race works well for this horse. The number of runners changes the pace and how much room a horse has.
  • This is a Chase Turf race, and it suits this horse. Running in the right type of race matters.
  • The fences are a worry. A horse that jumps badly wastes energy and can fall behind.
TrackLab Insight
Lightly raced with just three career outings and zero wins or top-3 finishes, this 6-year-old is the blank sheet in the field—he's also never raced on normal ground before, adding another layer of uncertainty. After a 231-day absence and finishing fifth, eighth, and seventh in his last three races, there's little positive form to build a case on here.
Never raced on normal ground Lightly raced (3 career races) Absent 231 days (longest in field)
Underrated horse

We think it's more likely to win than the odds suggest, so if it wins, it pays more than it should. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £6.50 back.

How odds work
Wearing tongue strap Back after 153 days off Won 2 of last 5 Has won on this ground
Why this score
  • A 5-runner race works well for this horse. The number of runners changes the pace and how much room a horse has.
  • No wins at this distance yet. We cannot tell if the race is too long, too short or just right.
  • With only 17 career runs, this horse is still learning. Inexperience can cost a horse in a tough race.
TrackLab Insight
This 8-year-old has the most racecourse miles in the field (18 races) and wins roughly 1 in 5, with a particularly strong record on good-to-soft ground (2 wins from 5 starts). She's been active and consistent—4 wins and 12 top-3 finishes tell the story of a reliable campaigner—but she too has limited data on normal ground specifically, having won just 1 from 10 attempts there.
Best record on this ground (1 from 10)
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £5.50 back.

How odds work
Back after 164 days off Won 1 of last 5 Raced here before
Why this score
  • 5 runners today is a good number for this horse. The number of runners affects how a race is run.
  • This horse is suited to this Chase Turf race. A horse in its best type of race can just focus on running.
  • Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
TrackLab Insight
The sharpest recent form in the field: this 6-year-old has the best win rate at 1 in 4 and has won twice in his last six races, including at Perth two races back. The major weakness is he's completely winless on softer surfaces (0 from 6 attempts combined on soft and good-to-soft ground), so if conditions lean that way, his prospects fade quickly despite the strong overall pattern.
Best career win rate in field (1 in 4)
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £6.00 back.

How odds work
Wearing cheekpieces Won 0 of last 5 Raced here before
Why this score
  • This is a 5-runner race, and the size suits this horse. Some horses prefer a small field with less traffic. Others do well in a crowd.
  • This type of ground has not suited the horse: 9 runs without much success. Some horses prefer different ground.
  • At 15.6 lbs heavier than the average, the extra weight adds up, especially in the final furlong (the last 220 yards).
TrackLab Insight
The most experienced horse by some margin (25 races versus a field average of 11), but this 9-year-old comes with a brutal record: zero wins across his entire career despite seven top-3 finishes, and he's yet to break his duck at Cartmel in six attempts. He does carry the lowest weight and showed promise with a third at Perth just 31 days ago, but a 25-race winless streak is a heavy burden to carry into any race.
Lowest rated, 17lbs below average Carries lowest weight in field Most experienced (25 runs, field avg 11)
What the colours mean
40+ Very strong chance 20–39 Strong chance 12–19 Solid chance 6–11 Could surprise Under 6 Long shot Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.

What these words mean

Underrated horse
We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
Our top pick
The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
TrackLab Score
Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
Ground
How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
Race level (Class)
From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
Group, Grade and Listed
The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
Handicap
The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
Maiden
A race for horses that haven't won yet.
Novice
A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
Chase, hurdle and bumper
Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
Distance (m and f)
m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
Each way
A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
Weight
How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
Jockey claim
An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
Headgear
Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.