Kelso
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Racingtv/freetrial Conditional Jockeys' Training Series Handicap Hurdle Race (go North Brindisi Breeze Series Qualifier) (Part Of The Racing Excellence Series)
Starts in
16h 9min
Turf track
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score
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Our top pick for this race
Strong chance
Odds 11/4
£1 wins £2.75 · 22 Strong chance
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £3.75 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- This type of ground has not suited the horse: 14 runs without much success. Some horses prefer different ground.
- N. Richards has a good 20.1% record here. A trainer who does well at one course is worth noting.
- The trainer's horses do not always finish their races. That raises questions about fitness and preparation.
TrackLab Insight
Favoured at 3/1 after finishing third at Perth twice in his last four races, but hasn't won anywhere in 26 races—just one win for every nine attempts—and crucially has never won at Perth despite seven attempts. He's also winless on right-handed galloping tracks, which rules out one of his two real form strengths on good-to-soft ground.
Market favourite (3/1)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £5.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has raced 3 times on this ground with a low win rate. Today's ground may not suit it.
- Today's race is over 2m 6½f. That distance looks right for this horse. Running over the right distance matters a lot.
- The trainer's horses do not always finish their races. That raises questions about fitness and preparation.
TrackLab Insight
Top-rated by 3lbs but hasn't won in six attempts, with recent form reading 5-5-3 at Perth suggesting he's struggling to recapture the form that brought him a Class 2 win here back in March. His record on soft ground (1 win from 4 starts) gives him some hope, but zero wins from five attempts on right-handed galloping tracks like Kelso is a serious concern in this race.
Top rated by 3lbs
£1 wins £6 · 18 Solid chance
A 25% win rate on this ground from 8 runs
18
Underrated horse
We think it's more likely to win than the odds suggest, so if it wins, it pays more than it should. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £7.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A 25% win rate on this ground from 8 runs. Just like people, horses have favourite surfaces. This one likes today's ground.
- A 2m 6½f race suits this horse well. When a horse is comfortable with the distance, it can settle into a good rhythm.
- A 4.5% career win rate for G. Walkingshaw. That is on the low side and could matter today.
TrackLab Insight
Has the best record on normal ground in this field (2 wins from 8 starts) and won at Perth just two months ago, but three consecutive sevenths there in his last six races suggest that form has evaporated quickly. The mare has drifted dramatically from 1/6 odds, and with zero wins on good-to-soft ground, a return to winning ways looks unlikely here.
Best record on this ground (2 from 8)
10
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £8.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- Today's race is over 2m 6½f. That distance looks right for this horse. Running over the right distance matters a lot.
- With an average finish of 6.7 lately, recent results are poor. This horse needs to improve.
TrackLab Insight
Winless from six career starts and absent for 218 days before running seventh at Musselburgh, making her the longest absentee in the field with no recent preparation for this jump. At five years old she remains a blank canvas with no signs of ability at this level, and a return to racing after such a long absence rarely produces a breakthrough.
Absent 218 days (longest in field)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £9.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A 2m 6½f race suits this horse well. When a horse is comfortable with the distance, it can settle into a good rhythm.
- An experienced horse with 44 career runs. Experienced horses tend to be steadier and less likely to run badly.
- A 4.8% career win rate for L. Noreci. That is on the low side and could matter today.
TrackLab Insight
The only winner at 2m 6f in this field with 2 wins from 6 starts at the distance, but he's been away 98 days and his recent form reads 7-6-2 at Cartmel, showing he's missed the mark in his last two outings. His track record at Cartmel (3 wins from 8 starts) counts for little here, and he carries zero wins from seven attempts on left-handed sharp tracks like Kelso.
Only winner at this distance
Best record at this trip (2 from 6)
Most experienced (44 runs, field avg 24)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £11.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- This horse runs well on today's ground, with a 22% win rate from 9 runs. The ground makes a big difference in racing.
- 2m 6½f is a good distance for this horse. Over its best distance, it can run its own race.
- Facing tougher rivals than last time. It is like moving up to a harder league. The step up is a challenge.
TrackLab Insight
Best career win rate in the field at roughly 1 in 5 races, but that's built on just 3 wins from 16 starts and recent form shows three consecutive fifths before a fourth-place finish. She was winless for her first seven races before breaking through late in the season, and there's no sign of renewed momentum here after drifting from 1/6 odds.
Best career win rate in field (1 in 5)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £17.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- An experienced horse with 39 career runs. Experienced horses tend to be steadier and less likely to run badly.
- With a 22.6% win rate overall, R. Hitchen is one of the more dependable riders.
- This trainer's horses often do not finish their races. That makes them harder to trust.
TrackLab Insight
Ran just 14 days ago and pulled up at Chepstow before that, so freshness isn't his strength entering this race. He's second-highest rated in the field but his career win rate of roughly 1 in 8 races, combined with limited recent success and a new jockey pairing, makes him a modest prospect at best.
2nd highest rated (OR 109)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £13.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Today's race is over 2m 6½f. That distance looks right for this horse. Running over the right distance matters a lot.
- A 10.6% overall win rate for N. W. Alexander. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
- Came 8th in the last race. It might have been an off day, or the horse may be losing form.
TrackLab Insight
One of the few course winners in the field with a success at Kelso 171 days ago, but he's produced an eighth-place finish at Perth just 30 days back and a pull-up at the same track 139 days ago. His overall record of 3 wins from 31 races (1 in 10) and zero wins on good-to-soft ground mean the course form is unlikely to translate into another victory.
One of few course winners (1 wins here)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £17.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- 2m 6½f is a good distance for this horse. Over its best distance, it can run its own race.
- 9 runners today is a good number for this horse. The number of runners affects how a race is run.
- R. Mike Smith has a 6.5% overall win rate, which is on the low side. That may mean the horse is not at its best.
TrackLab Insight
Lowest rated in the field by 26lbs (carrying the lightest weight as compensation) with just 1 win from 22 races—a 5% win rate—and that solitary success came nearly a year ago. He's winless on both good and good-to-soft ground with three pulls-up in his last six races, making him a serious outsider at 25/1.
Lowest rated, 26lbs below average
Carries lowest weight in field
What the colours mean
40+ Very strong chance
20–39 Strong chance
12–19 Solid chance
6–11 Could surprise
Under 6 Long shot
Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
- Underrated horse
- We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
- Our top pick
- The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
- TrackLab Score
- Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
- Ground
- How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
- Race level (Class)
- From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
- Group, Grade and Listed
- The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
- Handicap
- The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
- Maiden
- A race for horses that haven't won yet.
- Novice
- A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
- Chase, hurdle and bumper
- Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
- Distance (m and f)
- m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
- Each way
- A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
- Weight
- How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
- Jockey claim
- An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
- Headgear
- Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.