Curragh
·
Tattersalls Gold Cup (Group 1)
Awaiting result
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score
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Our top pick for this race
Strong chance
Odds 9/4
£1 wins £2.25 · 26 Strong chance
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £3.25 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- S. Levey wins 11.7% of all their races. That is a strong record. A jockey who wins often gives a horse a better chance.
- Has raced here 2 times without winning. This course has not suited the horse so far.
- A 7.8% record at this course for W. McCreery. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
The highest-rated horse in the field by 3lbs, which is the official handicapper's view of who is best here — and she arrives on the back of a win at Newmarket 21 days ago. However, the data shows she has only won once from 7 races on normal ground, which is a concern given today's conditions.
Top rated by 3lbs
4
City Of Memphis
Underrated horse
£1 wins £3.33 · 24 Strong chance
W. J. Lee has a good 8.7% record here
24
Underrated horse
We think it's more likely to win than the odds suggest, so if it wins, it pays more than it should. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £4.33 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- W. J. Lee has a good 8.7% record here. Knowing the course is one of a jockey's biggest strengths.
- W. J. Lee has won 10.0% of their races in their career. That steady record counts for a lot.
- The fences are a worry. A horse that jumps badly wastes energy and can fall behind.
TrackLab Insight
The market favourite and the form book backs that up — three wins from four races, the best record on today's ground in the field, and back-to-back wins heading into this. She is the one everyone else has to beat, and at 4.0, the market believes she will.
Best record on this ground (2 from 3)
Market favourite (4.0)
£1 wins £4.50 · 19 Solid chance
Handles this ground well, with 20% of its races won on it
19
Underrated horse
We think it's more likely to win than the odds suggest, so if it wins, it pays more than it should. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £5.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Handles this ground well, with 20% of its races won on it. The ground can change a horse's chances a lot.
- P. Twomey has won 27.7% of their races in their career. Trainers at this level know how to get horses ready.
- A Flat Turf race does not clearly suit this horse. Running in the wrong type of race is a disadvantage.
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £13.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- O. Murphy wins 17% of all their races. That is a strong record. A jockey who wins often gives a horse a better chance.
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- A 0% record at this course for A. Balding. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
She has the best career win rate in the field — winning roughly 1 in every 2 races — and arrives on the back of two consecutive wins at Newcastle. The concern is she drops two class levels from her usual racing environment to be here, and she has never won on ground described as normal or slower, which is what she faces today.
Drops 2 classes from usual level
Best career win rate in field (1 in 2)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £18.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Came home 1st last time out. A good recent run often carries over to the next race.
- An 11.9% win rate at this course for D. Browne McMonagle. Jockeys who know a track well can pick the best ground and time their run.
- This is a 12-runner race, and the size is not ideal. A big field means more traffic. A small field means nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
One of only a handful of course winners in this race, having won here at the Curragh 51 days ago, and she brings a tidy overall record of 3 wins from just 7 races. She is lightly raced and arrives in decent form, though this is a step up in class from that recent win.
One of few course winners (1 wins here)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £15.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- With a 19.2% win rate overall, W. Buick is one of the more dependable riders.
- Wins 20% of the time on this type of ground. Some horses run much better on soft or firm ground. This one suits today's ground.
- A 0% record at this course for C. Johnston. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
She has won at the top level in Britain, including a Group/Class 1 at Newmarket, so the quality is genuine — but she was well beaten on her most recent run, trailing home 4th and over 10 lengths off the pace. Coming from a different racing environment to take on horses who know this course is a real ask.
One of the more successful in the field (4 career wins)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £34.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- This type of ground has not suited the horse: 4 runs without much success. Some horses prefer different ground.
- Finishing 0th last time is encouraging. A horse that finishes well is usually in good shape.
- 12 runners today is not the number this horse wants. The number of runners changes how a race is run.
TrackLab Insight
She has never won at the Curragh in five attempts and has no wins on normal ground, two facts that are very hard to look past given today's conditions and course. With 15 races behind her and a win rate of roughly 1 in every 7, the data does not make a compelling case at these odds.
Among the more experienced (15 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £41.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- R. Moore wins 30.8% of their races at this course. Knowing the track is an advantage for any jockey.
- J. Patrick O'Brien wins only 10.9% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
Barely any data to work with — just one career race on record, no wins, and limited form to assess. She is the least experienced horse in the field by a wide margin, and stepping into a 12-runner Group 1 with that background is a significant test of what she might have.
Lightly raced (1 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £26.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- Today's ground is Good, and that suits this horse. Like athletes who prefer one type of surface, horses have favourite ground.
- A 0% record at this course for J. Channon. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
The longest absence in the field by some distance — this horse has not raced in 240 days, which is roughly eight months. Her last run was a close second in a top-level race at Newmarket, which shows ability, but horses returning from that length of break face a significant fitness question.
Absent 240 days (longest in field)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £34.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- J. M. Sheridan has won 7.1% of their races in their career. That steady record counts for a lot.
- J. Patrick O'Brien wins 14.3% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
- With £76,570 in prize money, this is a lower-level race. That sometimes means the horse has struggled in better races.
TrackLab Insight
Back-to-back wins at Gowran Park give her strong recent momentum, and a record of 3 wins from 7 races shows genuine consistency. The step up to a Group 1 at the Curragh is a big jump from where those wins came, and this will tell us quickly whether she belongs at this level.
Placed in 2 of last 3 races
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £67.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- R. De Aguiar has won 19% of their races in their career. Trainers at this level know how to get horses ready.
- A 0% record at this course for R. De Aguiar. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
The only horse in this field with a win at this distance, which is worth noting — but the recent form makes it hard to get excited. A distant 10th here at the Curragh just 35 days ago, beaten over 11 lengths, suggests she is well below the level needed to compete with the favourites today.
Only winner at this distance
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £34.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A low win rate on this ground from 9 previous runs. The ground could work against the horse today.
- An official rating of 101 is in this horse's favour. The rating comes from results, and this horse's number looks good.
- R. De Aguiar wins only 0% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
One of the most experienced horses in the field with 18 races under her belt, but that experience has produced just 2 wins — roughly 1 in every 9 races. She has never won at the Curragh in 7 attempts, and the data flags she has not won on normal ground in 9 tries, which is a real problem today.
Among the more experienced (18 career races)
What the colours mean
40+ Very strong chance
20–39 Strong chance
12–19 Solid chance
6–11 Could surprise
Under 6 Long shot
Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
- Underrated horse
- We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
- Our top pick
- The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
- TrackLab Score
- Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
- Ground
- How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
- Race level (Class)
- From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
- Group, Grade and Listed
- The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
- Handicap
- The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
- Maiden
- A race for horses that haven't won yet.
- Novice
- A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
- Chase, hurdle and bumper
- Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
- Distance (m and f)
- m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
- Each way
- A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
- Weight
- How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
- Jockey claim
- An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
- Headgear
- Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.