Curragh
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Tattersalls Irish 1,000 Guineas (Group 1) (Fillies)
Awaiting result
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score
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£1 wins 73p · 61 Very strong chance
A 21.8% win rate at this course for A. P. O'Brien
61
Our top pick for this race
Very strong chance
Odds 8/11
£1 wins 73p · 61 Very strong chance
Underrated horse
We think it's more likely to win than the odds suggest, so if it wins, it pays more than it should. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.73 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A 21.8% win rate at this course for A. P. O'Brien. Trainers who know a course often send out their horses well suited to it.
- R. Moore has a good 30.8% record here. Knowing the course is one of a jockey's biggest strengths.
- Has won here 2 times in 2 visits. That record at this course is a good sign.
TrackLab Insight
The standout in every measurable way: the only horse in the field with a winning record at this course (two from two), the only one with a perfect record on today's normal ground (three from three), and the highest-rated runner by nine points clear of the next best. Six wins from seven career races, all at the top level, makes her the clear one to beat — and the market agrees, making her the heavy favourite.
Only course winner (2 from 2 here)
Best record on this ground (3 from 3)
Best career win rate in field (1 in 1)
Market favourite (1.55)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £6.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- R. Dawson wins 10.9% of all their races. That is a strong record. A jockey who wins often gives a horse a better chance.
- Has won 1 time over this distance. That is a good sign the race length suits the horse.
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
TrackLab Insight
Wins more than one in every two races and arrives here in good form, having won last time out at Sandown 30 days ago. The step up to Group 1 company is the test, but with four wins from seven career races, this is one of the more credible challengers to the favourite in terms of raw form.
One of the more successful in the field (4 career wins)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £8.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- 218 days without racing. A long break can be a worry, as it takes time to rebuild fitness.
- 8 runners today is a good number for this horse. The number of runners affects how a race is run.
- A 0% record at this course for E. Walker. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
The big question here is fitness: Almaqam hasn't raced in over seven months, the longest absence of any horse in this field. When fit, the form is solid — three wins from eight races at the top level — but stepping straight into a Group 1 after that kind of break is a serious ask. If you're backing this horse, you're betting on it being ready first time out.
Absent 218 days (longest in field)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £10.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- With a 17% win rate overall, O. Murphy is one of the more dependable riders.
- O. Murphy has a good 6.7% record here. Knowing the course is one of a jockey's biggest strengths.
- Today's race is over 1m. The distance may not be ideal. If it does not suit, the horse has to fight the race.
TrackLab Insight
Has won half its six career races, which is a remarkable record, and was narrowly beaten just 16 days ago at Chester. The concern is that its best form at one mile looks well short of what the favourite Minnie Hauk has been doing at the same trip. A competitive type, but likely needs the principals to underperform.
Placed in 2 of last 3 races
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £29.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- This is an 8-runner race, and the size suits this horse. Some horses prefer a small field with less traffic. Others do well in a crowd.
- S. Foley has a good 9.2% record here. Knowing the course is one of a jockey's biggest strengths.
- A 1m race raises questions. If it is too long or too short for the horse, that hurts its chances.
TrackLab Insight
Has a fine record at one mile specifically — two wins from three races at this trip — but has finished fourth in each of its last three runs, including twice at this very course. The spark that delivered those wins doesn't seem to be there at the moment.
Best record at this trip (2 from 3)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £126.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- A. P. O'Brien has a good 21.8% record here. A trainer who does well at one course is worth noting.
- 20 days since the last run. That is a usual break, so there is nothing to read into it.
TrackLab Insight
The lowest-rated horse in the field by some distance — nine points below the favourite — and the recent form is patchy, finishing 12th and 10th before a second place last time out. Hard to make a case for this one in such a strong race, and the rating gap is a genuine obstacle.
Placed in 2 of last 3 races
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £34.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A low win rate on this ground from 5 previous runs. The ground could work against the horse today.
- An 8-runner race works well for this horse. The number of runners changes the pace and how much room a horse has.
- 16 days since the last run. That is a usual break, so there is nothing to read into it.
TrackLab Insight
The most experienced horse in the field with 17 races under its belt, but there's a critical problem: Royal Rhyme has never won on normal or fast ground — all five wins have come on wet or muddy surfaces. With normal conditions today, its record of zero wins from five races on this type of surface makes it very hard to recommend.
Most experienced (17 runs, field avg 8)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £151.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A low win rate on this ground from 3 previous runs. The ground could work against the horse today.
- An 8-runner race works well for this horse. The number of runners changes the pace and how much room a horse has.
- R. De Aguiar has a 0% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
The rank outsider at 67-1, and the form doesn't argue against that price — one win from eight races, and beaten more than 50 lengths at one point in recent outings. Carrying the lowest official rating in the field by a significant margin, this horse faces a very steep task against rivals of this quality.
Outsider at 67.0
What the colours mean
40+ Very strong chance
20–39 Strong chance
12–19 Solid chance
6–11 Could surprise
Under 6 Long shot
Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
- Underrated horse
- We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
- Our top pick
- The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
- TrackLab Score
- Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
- Ground
- How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
- Race level (Class)
- From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
- Group, Grade and Listed
- The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
- Handicap
- The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
- Maiden
- A race for horses that haven't won yet.
- Novice
- A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
- Chase, hurdle and bumper
- Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
- Distance (m and f)
- m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
- Each way
- A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
- Weight
- How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
- Jockey claim
- An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
- Headgear
- Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.