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Forsa Bay

Forsa Bay is a 6-year-old who has spent most of its career knocking on the door without quite breaking through — until this week. Across 12 races, the horse has managed 1 win and 4 places, a return of roughly 1 win in every 12 outings, which tells you this is a horse that competes honestly without setting the world alight. But the win that finally arrived, at Cartmel on 18 July 2026, matters more than the numbers suggest simply because it happened at all.Based on TrackLab's AI analysis
Quick Facts
Age
6 years old
Sex
Gelding
Colour
Bay
Father
Walk In The Park
Mother
Flowers On Sunday
Trainer
Owner
The Black And White Army
Rating
91

📊 Key Numbers

Career statistics for this horse
12
Career races
1
Wins
8.3%
Win rate
avg ~10%
33.3%
Place rate (top 3)
avg ~30%
1 days
Since last race

🔍 Full Analysis

TrackLab's AI-generated assessment based on career data and recent form
TrackLab's Detailed Breakdown
Auto-Generated

What makes that Cartmel victory interesting is the context around it. Forsa Bay had been finishing third and fifth in recent runs — close enough to suggest ability, not close enough to suggest dominance. Horses that place regularly without winning can sometimes be frustrating to follow, but they also tend to arrive in the winner's enclosure eventually, and that is exactly what happened here. The recent form of 1-–-5-3-–-3 shows a horse running consistently at a decent level, and the win gives trainer L J Morgan's yard something to build on.

Morgan, based at Waltham On The Wolds in Leicestershire, has sent out 14 winners this season, which shows the yard is in decent working order. One curious detail is that regular jockey Brian Hughes has ridden Forsa Bay five times without a win between them — meaning someone else was in the saddle for the breakthrough. That is not unusual in racing, but it is the kind of footnote that makes you wonder whether a change of approach made the difference. Forsa Bay has also been winless in four attempts at Class 5 level, the tier where it most often competes, which makes this week's result all the more welcome — and slightly overdue.

Whether this is the start of a new chapter or a one-off peak is genuinely hard to say. But a horse that has just won for the first time, is still active, and has clearly shown it can find the line when conditions are right is worth keeping an eye on. Forsa Bay is not a superstar, but it is exactly the kind of honest, hard-trying horse that makes following racing enjoyable for anyone willing to pay attention.

Strengths & Risks

What the data says works for and against this horse
✓ What works in their favour
Excellent record on good ground: 1 wins from 6 starts (17%)
⚠ What to watch out for
Poor record on good_to_soft ground: 0 wins from 5 starts
Struggles on LH Galloping tracks: 0 wins from 5 starts

🎯 Where This Horse Thrives

Performance broken down by ground, distance, class, and track type
🌧 Ground Conditions
Good (firm-ish)
Loves
Soft (muddy)
Unknown
Good to soft (some give)
Avoids
📏 Race Distance
Long Distance (2M+)
🏅 Competition Level
Class 2 (high-level)
Unknown
Class 3 (mid-level)
Unknown
Class 4 (standard)
Unknown
Class 5 (entry-level)
Avoids
🏟 Track Shape
Left-handed, tight turns
Unknown
Left-handed, tight
Unknown
Long straights
Unknown
Left-handed, long straights
Avoids
Right-handed, tight turns
Avoids

📅 Recent Runs

The last 10 races, most recent first
18 Jul
🏆 Won
Cartmel
Long Distance (2m+) · Good · 8 runners
8 May
DNF
Market Rasen
Long Distance (2m+) · Good · 7 runners
5 Apr
5th
Market Rasen
Long Distance (2m+) · Good · 8 runners
18 Mar
3rd
hereford
Long Distance (2m+) · Good · 8 runners
4 Feb
DNF
Sedgefield
Long Distance (2m+) · Good_To_Soft · 8 runners
4 Dec
3rd
Market Rasen
Long Distance (2m+) · Good_To_Soft · 7 runners
12 Apr
5th
Bangor-on-Dee
Long Distance (2m+) · Good · 6 runners
13 Feb
DNF
Newcastle
Long Distance (2m+) · Good_To_Soft · 13 runners
16 Jan
2nd
Newcastle
Long Distance (2m+) · Good_To_Soft · 11 runners
14 Dec
4th
Doncaster
Long Distance (2m+) · Good_To_Soft · 9 runners

🏇 Jockey Partnerships

Every jockey who has ridden this horse, sorted by rides together
0%
Win rate
0/5
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/3
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/2
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode

🏟 Track Record

Win rate at each course this horse has visited
CourseRacesResultsLast visitedWin rate
Newcastle
Galloping
3 1 second, 2 other 13 Feb 0%
Market Rasen
Sharp
3 1 third, 2 other 8 May 0%
Cartmel
Tight
1 1 win 18 Jul 100%
Bangor-on-Dee
Sharp
1 1 other 12 Apr 0%
Sedgefield
Sharp
1 1 other 4 Feb 0%
Wetherby
Galloping
1 1 other 3 Feb 0%
hereford 1 1 third 18 Mar 0%
Doncaster
Galloping
1 1 other 14 Dec 0%