Bellewstown
·
Dolly's Bar & Pantry Fillies Maiden
Awaiting result
Turf track
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score
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40+ Very strong chance
20–39 Strong chance
12–19 Solid chance
6–11 Could surprise
Under 6 Long shot
Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
- Underrated horse
- We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
- Our top pick
- The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
- TrackLab Score
- Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
- Ground
- How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
- Race level (Class)
- From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
- Group, Grade and Listed
- The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
- Handicap
- The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
- Maiden
- A race for horses that haven't won yet.
- Novice
- A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
- Chase, hurdle and bumper
- Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
- Distance (m and f)
- m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
- Each way
- A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
- Weight
- How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
- Jockey claim
- An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
- Headgear
- Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.
8
Mawhibah
£1 wins £2.25 · 25 Strong chance
J. Patrick O'Brien wins 21.9% of their races at this course
25
Our top pick for this race
Strong chance
Odds 9/4
£1 wins £2.25 · 25 Strong chance
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £3.25 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- J. Patrick O'Brien wins 21.9% of their races at this course. Some trainers aim horses at particular tracks, and this one does well here.
- A 14.1% overall win rate for J. Patrick O'Brien. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
- J. Patrick O'Brien wins only 21.9% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
The market favourite at 3.2, Mawhibah is a lightly raced three-year-old who has shown real promise — just beaten 1 length at Tramore ten days ago and with one place finish from three races. The big problem is she's never raced on soft ground, and today's conditions are unknown territory for her. She's improving on recent form but the ground question and her lack of a breakthrough win at a critical moment keep her from being a clear standout despite the odds.
Never raced on soft ground
Lightly raced (3 career races)
Market favourite (3.2)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £3.75 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- D. K. Weld wins 15.6% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
- D. K. Weld wins only 15.7% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
Zadawa is the second shortest-priced horse at 3.85 and for good reason — she's lightly raced with three outings, two placings (most recently second by just 0.8 lengths at Cork), and is trained by the respected D K Weld. She's improving with each run and shows genuine competitive intent, but like several rivals here, she's never raced on soft ground before. As a market fancy with genuine form credentials, she deserves serious consideration despite the unknowns about how she'll handle the mud.
Lightly raced (3 career races)
£1 wins £5.50 · 20 Strong chance
Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice
20
Underrated horse
We think it's more likely to win than the odds suggest, so if it wins, it pays more than it should. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £6.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- C. Keane wins 18.9% of their races at this course. Knowing the track is an advantage for any jockey.
- Has had 20 days off since its last race. That is a routine gap that should not help or hurt.
TrackLab Insight
Shemiyka is a lightly raced four-year-old with four races under her belt but no wins yet — though a recent third-place finish at Galway shows there's something there to work with. She was beaten only 3.5 lengths in that third and just 3 lengths more recently, suggesting she's competitive and possibly close to breaking through. The mid-range odds of 8.0 and the pairing of Colin Keane with a trainer experienced in getting results (41 wins from 188 races together) make her worth considering.
Mid-range in the market (8.0)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £5.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A 23.9% win rate at this course for A. P. O'Brien. Trainers who know a course often send out their horses well suited to it.
- A. P. O'Brien wins 19.1% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
- A 23.9% record at this course for A. P. O'Brien. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
Cosmetic is the highest-rated horse in the field by 6 pounds and has shown promise with two second-place finishes from six races, but she's never raced on soft ground — that's a material question mark on a day like this. The three-year-old finished second by just 1 length at Fairyhouse recently, suggesting she's competitive, but the unknowns about how she'll handle the mud and the lack of a breakthrough win are against her. At 5.5, the odds suggest confidence from her camp, but it's not matched by hard evidence yet.
Top rated by 6lbs
Never raced on soft ground
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £16.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Mrs J. Harrington wins 10.7% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
- A 10.7% overall win rate for Mrs J. Harrington. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
- Not rated highly by the official rater. The rating reflects what the horse has done so far, and it is modest.
TrackLab Insight
Another racecourse debut, this time a three-year-old by the reliable sire Study Of Man trained by Mrs John Harrington, a yard with an exceptional win rate (184 wins from 1630 races). Kigalienne is completely unproven on the track, so the 18.0 odds reflect genuine uncertainty, but the pedigree and the trainer's record suggest she's been properly prepared for this moment.
Racecourse debut
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £67.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- Came home 4th last time out. A good recent run often carries over to the next race.
- A 0% record at this course for J. E & Thomas Kiely. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
At six years old, Fraher Field is the most successful horse in this field with one career win, but that victory came nearly a year ago and she's been unable to add to it despite plenty of recent chances. She's a placings machine with six second-or-better finishes from 12 races, yet wins remain elusive on her current form. The soft ground here suits her better than firm conditions — she won on good-to-yielding terrain — but that's not enough to make her a standout pick.
One of the more successful in the field (1 career wins)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £41.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A low win rate on this ground from 3 previous runs. The ground could work against the horse today.
- With an 8.2% win rate overall, G. Carroll is one of the more dependable riders.
- Not rated highly by the official rater. The rating reflects what the horse has done so far, and it is modest.
TrackLab Insight
Pampar Lady has the most experience in the field with 26 races and a 12% win rate (roughly one win in every nine races), but her last victory came ten months ago and she's been inconsistent lately. The good news is she has an excellent record on soft or yielding-to-soft ground (33% win rate), which matches today's conditions exactly. However, she's struggled badly on sharp right-handed tracks (zero wins from 11 attempts), and Bellewstown has that configuration, so conditions work both ways for her.
Most experienced (26 runs, field avg 7)
Best career win rate in field (1 in 9)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £41.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A 5.4% overall win rate for H. Rogers. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
- D. McDonogh has won 10.0% of their races in their career. That steady record counts for a lot.
- H. Rogers has a 5.4% overall win rate, which is on the low side. That may mean the horse is not at its best.
TrackLab Insight
Making her racecourse debut here with no prior form to assess, Helen's Blaze is a complete unknown quantity at four years old. Her trainer H Rogers has sent out six winners already this season, suggesting the horse is ready, but everything on the track today will be a first-time experience. The wide odds of 41.0 reflect the risk that comes with an unproven runner.
Racecourse debut
£1 wins £1000 · 1 Long shot
The Good To Yielding ground works in this horse's favour
1
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1001.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- The Good To Yielding ground works in this horse's favour. The ground makes a big difference in racing, and today it helps.
- 272 days without racing. A long break can be a worry, as it takes time to rebuild fitness.
- H. Paul Finegan wins 4.9% of their races overall. That is below the top trainers.
TrackLab Insight
This is a concerning profile: seven races, zero wins, and Nugentstown Sue hasn't raced in 272 days — the longest absence in the field by far. She's returning to soft ground she's never encountered before after a nine-month absence, and her recent form before the break was poor (11th, 10th, 14th). The odds of 151.0 make her a heavy outsider for good reason.
Never raced on soft ground
Absent 272 days (longest in field)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £41.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- The Good To Yielding ground works in this horse's favour. The ground makes a big difference in racing, and today it helps.
- A 0% record at this course for R. P. Cody. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
Ocean Fire is one of the least experienced runners with just two races and zero placings, finishing fifth and eighth in quick succession. She's also never raced on soft ground, making this a difficult assignment for an unproven three-year-old already struggling on faster terrain. The 26.0 odds fairly reflect how much work she still needs to do.
Never raced on soft ground
Lightly raced (2 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £301.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Today's ground is Good To Yielding, and that suits this horse. Like athletes who prefer one type of surface, horses have favourite ground.
- J. C McConnell wins 7.0% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
- Came 11th in the last race. It might have been an off day, or the horse may be losing form.
TrackLab Insight
Ventriloquist has had exactly one race — an 11th-place finish at Leopardstown 82 days ago — so there's virtually nothing to go on except the trainer John C McConnell's solid record. She's never raced on soft ground and is returning to action in difficult conditions after a long break, making this a step up in difficulty for a horse still learning the ropes. The 81.0 odds reflect the risk appropriately.
Never raced on soft ground
Lightly raced (1 career races)