Just broke through at Listowel after 10 races and has strung together three consecutive top-3 finishes, including a tight second at Galway 26 days ago. The mid draw (5) is neutral, but zero wins on yielding ground is a serious concern given the soft conditions, and a 9% career win rate shows he's not yet proven at this level.
M. P J Cawley(7)
·
K. Thornton
· 6yo
· 11st 11lb
· OR 75
HeadgearForm
15
Wearing tongue strapWon 2 of last 5
TrackLab Insight
Market favourite at 4.0 after a morale-boosting win at Leopardstown just 19 days ago, and the only runner in this field with a recent victory on standard ground. The low draw (4) is a genuine asset here, but a 15% career win rate and an unfamiliar jockey pairing mean backing the short odds requires faith in one hot run over proven consistency.
Only seven races under his belt but shows real promise over long distances, with 1 win from just 8 starts in that sphere—25% of his limited races at 2m-plus. The 2m 2f trip plays to his strengths, recent third at Leopardstown is solid form, and a mid-range draw gives him a fair setup, though data remains thin.
Wearing cheekpiecesQuick turnaroundWon 1 of last 5
TrackLab Insight
Youngest runner at four years old with a recent win at Leopardstown and a second just 5 days ago, but has never raced on soft ground—a critical unknown. Turning out again so quickly after that second is unusual, the low draw (1) is ideal for the course, yet inexperience on this surface and thin overall form (1 win from 11 races) make this a gamble.
Never raced on soft ground3 straight top-3 finishesRuns again after just 5 days
M. L P Shanahan(7)
·
T. M Walsh
· 6yo
· 11st 9lb
· OR 73
HeadgearForm
9.5
Wearing tongue strapWon 0 of last 5Loves this ground (33% win rate)
TrackLab Insight
The form horse here: best win rate in the field at 1 in 5 races, and genuinely thrives on yielding ground with 1 win from 3 starts in those conditions. Three places in the last six runs show sharpness, but that last win was ten months ago and the high draw (10) at a track where those stalls have never produced a winner in 16 races is a real drag.
Best record on this ground (1 from 3)Best career win rate in field (1 in 5)
M. L Hackett(7)
·
R. Hackett
· 9yo
· 11st 8lb
· OR 72
HeadgearForm
6.8
Wearing tongue strapWon 1 of last 5Raced here beforeHas won on this ground
TrackLab Insight
Most experienced runner by far (45 races vs field average of 22) and the only horse with a genuine soft-ground record, winning 1 from 5 starts in those conditions and 1 from 3 on yielding-to-soft. Yet that win-rate of 9% (1 in 11) and zero wins from 13 starts with this jockey-trainer pairing show inconsistency, and the high draw (11) is another handicap.
Wearing tongue strapWon 0 of last 5Raced here before
TrackLab Insight
Three consecutive top-3 finishes including a recent second at Tramore show ready form, and she's won twice on good ground—but has zero wins from four starts on soft ground, which is a complete mismatch for today. A 9% career win rate and struggles on galloping tracks offer little encouragement despite the recent placings.
Wearing tongue strapWon 1 of last 5Has won on this ground
TrackLab Insight
Carries the lightest weight and lowest rating (6lbs below average), suggesting a fair opportunity on paper, but a win just 87 days ago on yielding ground is his only recent success. The 9% win rate, zero wins on soft ground from four attempts, and struggles on galloping tracks all point away from this being his day despite the handicap assistance.
Lowest rated, 6lbs below averageCarries lowest weight in field
M. K M Ryan(7)
·
W. Durkan
· 7yo
· 12st 2lb
· OR 80
HeadgearForm
4.6
Wearing visorWon 0 of last 5Raced here before
TrackLab Insight
Top-rated by a clear 5lbs but arrives with serious questions after pulling up at Galway 25 days ago and finishing 8th at Market Rasen before that. The nightmare draw (9) at a track where low numbers win nearly 1 in 5 races compounds the problem, and worse still—this horse has zero wins on yielding or soft ground despite the editorial tip. Form and course setup say no.
M. C Mullins(7)
·
T. Mullins
· 6yo
· 11st 9lb
· OR 73
HeadgearForm
1.6
Wearing cheekpiecesWon 0 of last 5
TrackLab Insight
Outsider at 19.0 with a brutal 4% win rate (1 from 28 races) and has struggled badly on soft ground, winning zero from four attempts in those conditions. Recent form shows two failures including a 6th place just 12 days ago, making this the weakest case in the field for the conditions and distance.
Wearing tongue strapFresh (103 days off)Won 0 of last 5
TrackLab Insight
A 12-year-old with just one win from 19 races returns after a 103-day absence—the longest layoff in the field—pairing with a jockey for the first time. The slow ground should theoretically suit (0 wins on faster conditions), but age and time off make this the longest of long shots despite the editorial rating it as second-best.
How do odds work?The first number is what you win, the second is what you bet. So 5/2 means you win £5 for every £2. 4/1 means you win £4 for every £1. The bigger the first number, the less likely bookmakers think the horse will win — but the more you'd win if it does.