Bellewstown
·
Irish EBF Auction Series Maiden
Awaiting result
Turf track
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score
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40+ Very strong chance
20–39 Strong chance
12–19 Solid chance
6–11 Could surprise
Under 6 Long shot
Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
- Underrated horse
- We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
- Our top pick
- The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
- TrackLab Score
- Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
- Ground
- How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
- Race level (Class)
- From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
- Group, Grade and Listed
- The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
- Handicap
- The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
- Maiden
- A race for horses that haven't won yet.
- Novice
- A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
- Chase, hurdle and bumper
- Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
- Distance (m and f)
- m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
- Each way
- A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
- Weight
- How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
- Jockey claim
- An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
- Headgear
- Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.
£1 wins £3.33 · 25 Strong chance
G. Cromwell wins 10.2% of all their races
25
Our top pick for this race
Strong chance
Odds 10/3
£1 wins £3.33 · 25 Strong chance
Underrated horse
We think it's more likely to win than the odds suggest, so if it wins, it pays more than it should. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £4.33 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- G. Cromwell wins 10.2% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
- This is an 8-runner race, and the size suits this horse. Some horses prefer a small field with less traffic. Others do well in a crowd.
- Stall 7 is a worry. At some courses, some starting stalls are a big disadvantage.
TrackLab Insight
The form horse here — six races unbeaten in the top four, with two second-place finishes suggesting a first win is overdue. He's never run on soft ground, which is a genuine unknown, but his rating sits above the field average and the market still backs him at 3.5 despite the drifting odds from his opening 1.1. Mid-draw works against him slightly at Bellewstown, but consistency like this is rare in a field of maidens.
Never raced on soft ground
Market favourite (3.5)
25
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £4.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A. Slattery has won 7.6% of their races in their career. Trainers at this level know how to get horses ready.
- An 8-runner race works well for this horse. The number of runners changes the pace and how much room a horse has.
- A. Slattery has a 7.6% overall win rate, which is on the low side. That may mean the horse is not at its best.
TrackLab Insight
The second-best form on offer — a 2nd place at Bellewstown just 54 days ago, beaten by less than a length, and she knows this track. Only two races makes her lightly raced, but that near-miss was genuine and the trainer-jockey combo (same person) boasts 85 wins from 876 races together, suggesting a yard with real know-how. Soft ground is untested, but her odds of 3.6 reflect realistic winning chances.
Never raced on soft ground
Lightly raced (2 career races)
21
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £4.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- Today's race is over 5f. That distance looks right for this horse. Running over the right distance matters a lot.
- J. P Fahey has a 6.8% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
Only two races but the form reads better than the record suggests — 6th then 5th, gradually improving and beaten just 3.5 lengths most recently at Sligo. She's the only runner here who has never raced on soft ground and actually looks competitive in maiden form; the draw in three is neutral and the trainer-jockey combo has delivered winners. At 6.6 odds, she's a reasonable outsider if the track doesn't prove a hurdle.
Lightly raced (2 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £4.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- An 8-runner race works well for this horse. The number of runners changes the pace and how much room a horse has.
- With an average finish of 3.7 in recent runs, this horse keeps finishing close to the front. It would not need much luck to win.
- E. & Patrick Harty has a 0% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
Four races, one place, and the most recent effort was a 7th at Cork just 11 days ago — not the form of a horse about to break through. She's drawn in stall one, which is ideal for the track's low bias, but she's also never encountered soft ground and her rating sits only one pound above the field average. The lack of experience on the surface here is a real concern.
Never raced on soft ground
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £10.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- An 8-runner race works well for this horse. The number of runners changes the pace and how much room a horse has.
- The Good To Yielding ground works in this horse's favour. The ground makes a big difference in racing, and today it helps.
- R. Cleary wins 4.8% of their races overall. That is below the average for professional jockeys.
TrackLab Insight
Just one race under his belt — an 11th-place finish at Curragh nine days ago — making him the least experienced runner here by a significant margin. He's drawn in a low stall that suits the track, but a debut that far off the pace, combined with an untested trainer-jockey combination and zero soft ground experience, suggests he's still learning to race. At 9.0 odds, the market has already moved away from him.
Never raced on soft ground
Lightly raced (1 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £17.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- This is an 8-runner race, and the size suits this horse. Some horses prefer a small field with less traffic. Others do well in a crowd.
- This horse is happy on Good To Yielding ground. When the ground suits, a horse can run to its best.
- R. De Aguiar has a 0% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
Six races with just two places and a deteriorating trend — her last three finishes are 10th, 6th, and 8th, moving in the wrong direction. She's rated four pounds below the field average and tackling soft ground for the first time, while teaming up with a jockey for the first time here. The draw in five is neutral, but form and trajectory both point away from her.
Never raced on soft ground
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £201.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- N. Crosse wins 5.4% of all their races. That is a strong record. A jockey who wins often gives a horse a better chance.
- An 8-runner race works well for this horse. The number of runners changes the pace and how much room a horse has.
- P. F. McEnery has a 2.8% overall win rate, which is on the low side. That may mean the horse is not at its best.
TrackLab Insight
Only two career races and two sizeable beatings — 13th at Roscommon and 11th at Fairyhouse — with a two-month absence since her last outing. She's the longest odds in the field at 80.0 for good reason: minimal data, poor previous efforts, and an untested surface make her a genuine outsider. Youth is a mitigating factor, but she has serious ground to make up.
Never raced on soft ground
Lightly raced (2 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £251.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- This is an 8-runner race, and the size suits this horse. Some horses prefer a small field with less traffic. Others do well in a crowd.
- The Good To Yielding ground works in this horse's favour. The ground makes a big difference in racing, and today it helps.
- A 5.2% career win rate for S. Rutledge. That is on the low side and could matter today.
TrackLab Insight
Running just two days after her last outing at Naas (result unknown) and third race in under two weeks — she's getting turned around far too quickly for a raw two-year-old still searching for form. Two races without a place, plus a 12th at Dundalk before that, suggests she's nowhere near ready to win, and the tight turnaround is a red flag for fatigue. At 126.0 odds, she's a betting cipher.
Never raced on soft ground
Lightly raced (2 career races)
Runs again after just 2 days