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Bellewstown

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Gibney's Of Gormanstown Handicap
Awaiting result
Flat race · weights set to make it fair Underrated horse: Prairie Girl +3 About 5 furlongs Slightly soft ground 11 runners £9,000 prize money
Turf track
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score

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40+ Very strong chance 20–39 Strong chance 12–19 Solid chance 6–11 Could surprise Under 6 Long shot Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
Underrated horse
We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
Our top pick
The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
TrackLab Score
Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
Ground
How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
Race level (Class)
From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
Group, Grade and Listed
The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
Handicap
The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
Maiden
A race for horses that haven't won yet.
Novice
A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
Chase, hurdle and bumper
Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
Distance (m and f)
m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
Each way
A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
Weight
How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
Jockey claim
An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
Headgear
Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.
Underrated horse

We think it's more likely to win than the odds suggest, so if it wins, it pays more than it should. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £8.00 back.

How odds work
Wearing cheekpieces Won 2 of last 5 Raced here before Won at this distance 3 times
Why this score
  • D. James Murphy wins 25% of their races at this course. Some trainers aim horses at particular tracks, and this one does well here.
  • A 5.8% overall win rate for T. Casey. Good jockeys make better decisions during a race.
  • 11 runners today is not the number this horse wants. The number of runners changes how a race is run.
TrackLab Insight
This is a major concern: Prairie Girl has never raced on soft ground and faces it now on her first run in over two weeks, yet she's the standout win-rate performer in the field at roughly 1 win in 4 races. She's a course specialist at Dundalk (3 wins from 7 races) but that experience doesn't translate here, and her recent form shows 4th at Curragh and a 10-length beating before that. The draw in stall 1 offers no advantage in this race.
Never raced on soft ground Best record at this trip (3 from 7) Best career win rate in field (1 in 4)
Underrated horse

We think it's more likely to win than the odds suggest, so if it wins, it pays more than it should. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £7.50 back.

How odds work
Has won at this course and distance Wearing tongue strap Back quickly after its last run Won 1 of last 5 Won here 2 times
Why this score
  • A 28.6% win rate at this course for M. Hassett. Trainers who know a course often send out their horses well suited to it.
  • This type of ground has not suited the horse: 7 runs without much success. Some horses prefer different ground.
  • A 3yo+ race is not ideal for this horse. The entry rules are a small disadvantage.
TrackLab Insight
Harry's Hill is the market favourite at 5.0 and has won over this course and distance, but there's a critical problem: he has zero wins from 3 starts on soft ground and has never won on standard ground either (0 from 5). The 8-year-old did win just 9 days ago at Curragh, but that was on firmer conditions; here on soft turf he becomes a different, and weaker, proposition despite the fresh form.
Has won over this course and distance Market favourite (5.0)
Underrated horse

We think it's more likely to win than the odds suggest, so if it wins, it pays more than it should. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £7.50 back.

How odds work
Wearing cheekpieces Won 1 of last 5 Raced here before
Why this score
  • An 18.8% win rate at this course for P. McGettigan. Jockeys who know a track well can pick the best ground and time their run.
  • J. P. Murtagh wins 11.1% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
  • This is an 11-runner race, and the size is not ideal. A big field means more traffic. A small field means nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Editorial verdict backs this one as the class act, and the market agrees at 5.5—though odds have drifted sharply from 1.1, suggesting some concern. Namiid won just once in 14 races but has been consistently competitive, finishing 2nd here 54 days ago and 3rd most recently, and carries a +12 rating advantage over the field average. The soft ground should help given a decent record on fast ground, but that modest 7% win rate means even favourites stumble in sprint handicaps.
2nd in the market (5.5)
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £10.00 back.

How odds work
Wearing cheekpieces Back quickly after its last run Won 2 of last 5 Won here 1 time
Why this score
  • L. Roche wins 6.8% of all their races. That is a strong record. A jockey who wins often gives a horse a better chance.
  • W. McCreery has won 9.0% of their races in their career. Trainers at this level know how to get horses ready.
  • Only 9th last time out. That is not what we want to see before today's race.
TrackLab Insight
Happy Henry has never raced on soft ground and carries an 8% win rate (2 wins from 24 races), making him an outsider on today's terms despite running well at Bellewstown 53 days ago (winning) and Curragh recently. The 9th-place finish at Curragh just 9 days ago is a poor recent marker, and soft turf is uncharted water—he's won twice, both on good ground where he holds a respectable 22% win rate.
Never raced on soft ground
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £7.00 back.

How odds work
Wearing tongue strap Won 1 of last 5 Won at this distance 1 time
Why this score
  • Today's ground is Good To Yielding, and that suits this horse. Like athletes who prefer one type of surface, horses have favourite ground.
  • An average finish of 4 over the last three races. Finishing near the front this often is a good sign.
  • A 2.6% record at this course for R. O'Sullivan. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
Bad Boy Rizz sits closest to Namiid on the ratings but is flying blind on soft ground—he's never raced on it before and has zero wins from 6 starts on good ground, which raises serious questions. The sole win came at Navan nearly a year ago, and nine months have passed without another; recent form shows 4th at Naas 34 days ago, a 34-day absence is long, and soft ground is completely untested territory for him.
Never raced on soft ground
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £10.00 back.

How odds work
Wearing cheekpieces Won 1 of last 5 Raced here before Won at this distance 6 times
Why this score
  • Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
  • Has won 6 times over this distance. That is a good sign the race length suits the horse.
  • P. J McKenna has a 0% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
At six years old and 57 races deep, Cuban Grey is the most seasoned operator here and boasts a superb 50% win rate on soft ground (2 wins from 4 starts)—perfect timing for today's conditions. Recent form is patchy (5th at Dundalk 10 days ago, 3rd at Curragh 16 days ago), but he's exactly the type to handle soft turf and short sprints, though stall 11 and an outside draw are inconvenient for a five-furlong dash.
Most experienced (57 runs, field avg 22)
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £14.00 back.

How odds work
Won 1 of last 5 Raced here before Won at this distance 1 time
Why this score
  • J. C McConnell wins 7.0% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
  • Has raced here 1 time without winning. This course has not suited the horse so far.
  • A 7% record at this course for J. C McConnell. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
Bye Bye Now is the lowest-rated horse by 13 pounds below the field average and carries the lightest weight (120lbs), but she's never raced on soft ground and owns just one win from seven races overall (14% win rate). The 2nd-place finish here 53 days ago is encouraging on this track, but a 39-day break and unknown soft-ground credentials make her a lottery ticket at 13.0 odds.
Lowest rated, 13lbs below average Carries lowest weight in field Never raced on soft ground
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £16.00 back.

How odds work
Has won at this course and distance Won 1 of last 5 Won here 1 time Won at this distance 4 times
Why this score
  • Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
  • The trend in recent results is up. Each run has been better than the one before, which is encouraging.
  • Finished 16th last time, which was a disappointing run. A poor last run raises questions about the horse's current form.
TrackLab Insight
Buddy Batt has won over this course and distance—a standout advantage in a competitive race—and owns a respectable 21% career win rate (4 wins from 19 races). The problem is a shocking 16-place hammering at Curragh 58 days ago after a long layoff, and while he has soft-ground form, he's been well beaten recently and hasn't raced since. This feels like a horse needing a run badly.
Has won over this course and distance
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £15.00 back.

How odds work
Won 0 of last 5 Raced here before
Why this score
  • Has run 4 times at this track with no wins yet. Some horses do not take to some courses.
  • Today's race is over 5f. That distance looks right for this horse. Running over the right distance matters a lot.
  • A 4.7% record at this course for T. G. McCourt. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
Smoke Them Out fits the soft-ground profile perfectly, with wins on soft and heavy ground already in the locker, and he was 3rd here just 54 days ago over this track and trip. However, the 11th-place hammering at Naas 22 days ago is a brutal recent marker, and he's won just 3 times in 25 races overall—roughly 1 in 8. The early draw (stall 2) is helpful, but consistency remains his biggest enemy.
3 straight top-3 finishes
Underrated horse

We think it's more likely to win than the odds suggest, so if it wins, it pays more than it should. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £19.00 back.

How odds work
Back after 79 days off Won 0 of last 5 Raced here before Won at this distance 1 time
Why this score
  • Has raced 3 times on this ground with a low win rate. Today's ground may not suit it.
  • M. Telford-Kelly has a good 66.7% record here. Knowing the course is one of a jockey's biggest strengths.
  • A weight disadvantage of 11.5 lbs compared with the average for this race. Racing is decided by small margins, and weight matters.
TrackLab Insight
Asdana is the lowest-rated runner and carries the lowest weight (121lbs), but that conceals a modest 6% win rate (1 in 16 races) and a 79-day layoff with incomplete recent form that makes her hard to read. She's never raced on soft ground, and while she has some good-ground form (1 win from 6 starts), returning after this long gap to an untested surface in a competitive sprint is a significant ask.
Outsider at 19.0
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £26.00 back.

How odds work
Wearing tongue strap Back quickly after its last run Won 0 of last 5 Raced here before
Why this score
  • The trend in recent results is up. Each run has been better than the one before, which is encouraging.
  • Has run 1 time at this track with no wins yet. Some horses do not take to some courses.
  • Finished 20th last time, which was a disappointing run. A poor last run raises questions about the horse's current form.
TrackLab Insight
Treasured Royal is a red flag on multiple fronts: never raced on soft ground, runs back after just 3 days following a devastating 20-place hammering at Curragh, and owns a miserable 8% win rate (1 in 12) across 13 races. This 3-year-old appears to be a horse struggling to find her level, and the quick turnaround combined with untested soft ground makes her a poor proposition here.
Never raced on soft ground Runs again after just 3 days
More at Bellewstown on Tuesday ?