Bangor-on-Dee
·
Mount Vines Novices' Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)
Starts in
2h 25min
Turf track
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score
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Our top pick for this race
Strong chance
Odds 7/2
£1 wins £3.50 · 20 Strong chance
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £4.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A 21.9% overall win rate for N. Henderson. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- A 14-runner race works against this horse. Too many runners can mean getting boxed in. Too few can mean nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Finished top-3 in two of his last three races, which catches the eye, but that headline hides a poor win rate of only 14% across seven races. Like Just Golden and They Want Me, he has no wins from three attempts on soft ground—a significant handicap when conditions are wet and sticky.
Top-3 finishes in 2 of last 3 races
6
Kel du Large
£1 wins £4.50 · 14 Solid chance
Wins 25% of the time on this type of ground
14
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £5.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Wins 25% of the time on this type of ground. Some horses run much better on soft or firm ground. This one suits today's ground.
- Today's race is over 2m 4½f. That distance looks right for this horse. Running over the right distance matters a lot.
- A 14-runner race works against this horse. Too many runners can mean getting boxed in. Too few can mean nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Career win rate of 33% is the best in this field, and recent form shows two narrow defeats at Class 4 level at Warwick where he was only a length adrift. The setback comes from a fall at Plumpton 204 days ago and a rating of 116 that's 7lbs below the top-rated horse, leaving questions about whether that edge has dulled.
Best career win rate in field (1 in 3)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £6.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A 23.1% win rate at this course for R. Curtis. Trainers who know a course often send out their horses well suited to it.
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- A 14-runner race works against this horse. Too many runners can mean getting boxed in. Too few can mean nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Lowest-rated horse here at 108, and the record tells the story: eight races, no wins, seven top-3 finishes. A serial bridesmaid who seems structurally unable to convert proximity into victory—form on this ground is unavailable, and asking him to break through now against a field where several horses have superior credentials is a tall order.
Lowest rated, 7lbs below average
Carries lowest weight in field
£1 wins £7 · 10 Could surprise
D. Skelton has won 18.7% of their races in their career
10
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £8.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- D. Skelton has won 18.7% of their races in their career. Trainers at this level know how to get horses ready.
- This type of ground has not suited the horse: 3 runs without much success. Some horses prefer different ground.
- This is a 14-runner race, and the size is not ideal. A big field means more traffic. A small field means nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Top-rated by 3lbs and favourite at 9/2, but there's a glaring weakness: zero wins from three attempts on good-to-soft ground, which is exactly what this race offers today. Recent form reads well with a win at Warwick and a near-miss at Cheltenham, but the ground concern is real and unexplained—he simply hasn't figured out how to win on slightly soft surfaces.
Top rated by 3lbs
Market favourite (9/2)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £8.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- This horse runs well on today's ground, with a 33% win rate from 6 runs. The ground makes a big difference in racing.
- Today's race is over 2m 4½f. That distance looks right for this horse. Running over the right distance matters a lot.
- 14 runners today is not the number this horse wants. The number of runners changes how a race is run.
TrackLab Insight
Best-suited to today's ground by some margin: two wins from six races on slightly soft surfaces, markedly better than most of the field. Won a Class 2 race at Warwick earlier this year and returns from a short break, suggesting fitness is intact—a consistent horse with 27% career win rate who knows how to handle wet ground.
Best record on this ground (2 from 6)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £11.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- This horse is suited to this Chase Turf race. A horse in its best type of race can just focus on running.
- Came home 1st last time out. A good recent run often carries over to the next race.
- This is a 14-runner race, and the size is not ideal. A big field means more traffic. A small field means nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
One of only two course winners in the field—that win came at Bangor 192 days ago, though form since has been patchy. The critical issue is identical to Just Golden: zero wins from five attempts on soft ground, making today's conditions particularly awkward for a horse that otherwise shows promise at this level.
One of few course winners (1 wins here)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £10.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has raced 3 times on this ground with a low win rate. Today's ground may not suit it.
- This horse is suited to this Chase Turf race. A horse in its best type of race can just focus on running.
- A 14-runner race works against this horse. Too many runners can mean getting boxed in. Too few can mean nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Course winner at Bangor 220 days ago and carries the lightest weight in the field, which has merit. But a 17% career win rate, zero wins from three attempts on good-to-soft ground, and a recent fifth-place finish at Perth are not encouraging omens—he suits longer distances but hasn't made the step up to consistent form.
One of few course winners (1 wins here)
10
Col du Pre'
£1 wins £14 · 5 Long shot
This is a Chase Turf race
5
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £15.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- This is a Chase Turf race, and it suits this horse. Running in the right type of race matters.
- A 15.7% overall win rate for V. Williams. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
- This is a 14-runner race, and the size is not ideal. A big field means more traffic. A small field means nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Winless from four races but has shown up in the frame twice, with a second-place finish most recently 35 days ago. Never raced on slightly soft ground, so today presents a genuine unknown—and for a horse still searching for a first win, missing data on this surface is a significant gap in what we can assess about his chances.
Never raced on slightly soft ground
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £19.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- The trend in recent results is up. Each run has been better than the one before, which is encouraging.
- B. Jones wins 15.8% of all their races. That is a strong record. A jockey who wins often gives a horse a better chance.
- Came 14th in the last race. It might have been an off day, or the horse may be losing form.
TrackLab Insight
Thrives on wet ground with two wins from four attempts on soft surfaces (50% win rate), but hasn't raced on this track before and comes off a 214-day absence capped by a heavy defeat at Wetherby. The ground suits him, but recent form is concerning and the layoff makes him vulnerable in a tightly packed race.
Never raced on slightly soft ground
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £13.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A 2m 4½f race suits this horse well. When a horse is comfortable with the distance, it can settle into a good rhythm.
- This horse is suited to this Chase Turf race. A horse in its best type of race can just focus on running.
- L. Horsfall has a 7.1% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
Finished second at Bangor 210 days ago and has posted top-3 finishes in two of his last three races, showing the form is there. However, a 10% career win rate and only one victory in 10 races suggests he's more at home in the frame than winning races—data on good-to-soft ground is strong (33% from three starts), but consistency to convert that into wins remains unproven.
Top-3 finishes in 2 of last 3 races
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £26.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Handles this ground well, with 25% of its races won on it. The ground can change a horse's chances a lot.
- This is a Chase Turf race, and it suits this horse. Running in the right type of race matters.
- A 14-runner race works against this horse. Too many runners can mean getting boxed in. Too few can mean nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Solid all-rounder with a 25% win rate and genuine pedigree in Class 4 (two wins from five attempts), but current data is thin with a missing recent race at Doncaster 242 days ago. The partnership with jockey Lilly Pinchin showed real promise at 40%, but recent form is harder to track and he hasn't run in 30 days.
Mid-range in the market (17/1)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £67.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A Chase Turf race works in this horse's favour. Horses often do best in one type of race and struggle in others.
- 2m 4½f is a good distance for this horse. Over its best distance, it can run its own race.
- 14 runners today is not the number this horse wants. The number of runners changes how a race is run.
TrackLab Insight
Returns after 347 days on the sidelines, which is a mountain to climb in a race as competitive as this one. The positive: he's a 40% winner in Class 4 races, exactly what this field is, so he knows how to win at this level—but 11 months away makes timing and sharpness huge unknowns. First-time experience on this ground adds another layer of uncertainty.
Never raced on slightly soft ground
Absent 559 days (longest in field)
Unfancied in the market despite a high rating
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £51.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A low win rate on this ground from 6 previous runs. The ground could work against the horse today.
- This horse is suited to this Chase Turf race. A horse in its best type of race can just focus on running.
- This is a 14-runner race, and the size is not ideal. A big field means more traffic. A small field means nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Editorial pick is understandable on one front: he has won on soft ground (1 from 4) and run sharply here 15 days ago when finishing third at Worcester. But a 15% career win rate and zero wins from six attempts on good-to-soft ground are hard to ignore—the ground today is slightly soft, not the soft conditions where he has shown ability, making the comparison trickier than it first appears.
Among the more experienced (13 career races)
£1 wins £28 · 1 Long shot
J. Parkinson & Sue Smith wins 22.7% of their races at this course
1
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £29.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- J. Parkinson & Sue Smith wins 22.7% of their races at this course. Some trainers aim horses at particular tracks, and this one does well here.
- Wins 22% of the time on this type of ground. Some horses run much better on soft or firm ground. This one suits today's ground.
- 14 runners today is not the number this horse wants. The number of runners changes how a race is run.
TrackLab Insight
Most experienced horse in the field with 19 races behind him and a solid 44% partnership rate with jockey Peter Kavanagh, yet struggles significantly on left-handed galloping tracks (1 win from 10). Bangor is left-handed, which is a material concern—his best record at this two-mile-plus trip offers some encouragement, but the track setup works against him.
Best record at this trip (1 from 5)
Most experienced (19 runs, field avg 9)
What the colours mean
40+ Very strong chance
20–39 Strong chance
12–19 Solid chance
6–11 Could surprise
Under 6 Long shot
Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
- Underrated horse
- We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
- Our top pick
- The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
- TrackLab Score
- Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
- Ground
- How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
- Race level (Class)
- From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
- Group, Grade and Listed
- The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
- Handicap
- The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
- Maiden
- A race for horses that haven't won yet.
- Novice
- A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
- Chase, hurdle and bumper
- Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
- Distance (m and f)
- m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
- Each way
- A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
- Weight
- How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
- Jockey claim
- An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
- Headgear
- Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.