Bangor-on-Dee
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Spooktacular Family Day Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle Race
Starts in
55min
Turf track
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score
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Our top pick for this race
Strong chance
Odds 9/4
£1 wins £2.25 · 26 Strong chance
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £3.25 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A 2m 7f race suits this horse well. When a horse is comfortable with the distance, it can settle into a good rhythm.
- There is £5,281 in prize money in this race. That attracts good horses, and this one looks to belong among them.
- M. Keighley wins only 5.8% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
Glance of Glory is the market favourite at 10/3 with the best career win rate in the field at 38% (3 from 8 races), fresh off a victory at Fontwell just 24 days ago. However, he has never raced on slightly soft ground and must adapt quickly; his most recent outing was just yesterday, so freshness is not a concern, but the ground represents a genuine unknown.
Never raced on slightly soft ground
Best career win rate in field (1 in 3)
Market favourite (10/3)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £7.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has raced 3 times on this ground with a low win rate. Today's ground may not suit it.
- A 15.2% overall win rate for E. England. Good jockeys make better decisions during a race.
- H. Daly has a 15.1% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
Hard Dealt is a mare stuck in the runner-up groove—1 win from 11 races, with 6 top-3 finishes that underline her inability to convert chances into victories. On slightly soft ground, she has no wins from 3 starts, making this her toughest test yet in a race that demands proven wet-ground credentials.
Among the fancied runners (13/2)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £7.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- 2m 7f is a good distance for this horse. Over its best distance, it can run its own race.
- O. Greenall & Josh Guerriero wins only 14.6% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
Crystal Glance is a course specialist with 2 wins from 4 races at Bangor-on-Dee, and her career win rate of 31% (5 from 16 starts) is the strongest in the field. She was last seen just 42 days ago finishing 2nd by a whisker, suggesting she remains sharp and close to breaking through.
Course specialist (2 wins from 4 here)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £7.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has raced 5 times on this ground with a low win rate. Today's ground may not suit it.
- J. Parkinson & Sue Smith wins 22.7% of their races at this course. Some trainers aim horses at particular tracks, and this one does well here.
- There is little recent data for J. Parkinson & Sue Smith's stable. It is hard to judge their current form.
TrackLab Insight
Aire Spray carries the lowest weight in the field and wins roughly 1 in every 4 races on soft ground (2 from 5), but he holds 0 wins from 5 starts on good-to-soft conditions—a poor record that undermines his chances in slightly soft terrain. His form has been lumpy since his Market Rasen win seven weeks ago, and he rates 8 pounds below the field average.
Lowest rated, 8lbs below average
Carries lowest weight in field
11
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £8.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- H. Brown has won 20.8% of their races in their career. That steady record counts for a lot.
- H. Brown has a good 0% record here. Knowing the course is one of a jockey's biggest strengths.
- 1 win from 4 runs at this track. When a horse likes a course, it often runs well there again.
TrackLab Insight
Speed Davis won here 53 days ago and is one of only two course winners in the field, but his recent form has drifted—a 3rd, 6th, and 5th in his last three races. He wins roughly 1 in every 5 outings overall, yet struggles on good ground (1 win from 10 starts), a potential weakness if the slightly soft ground doesn't fully play to his strengths.
One of few course winners (1 wins here)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £9.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has raced 6 times on this ground with a low win rate. Today's ground may not suit it.
- N. & Willy Twiston-Davies has a good 33.3% record here. A trainer who does well at one course is worth noting.
- Has not raced for 582 days. That is a long time away, and we cannot be sure the horse will be fit enough.
TrackLab Insight
Mr Mackay has been absent for 370 days and carries the longest absence in the field, a hurdle that typically takes horses time to overcome. His form on slightly soft and soft ground is poor—0 wins from 9 combined starts—making this a tough return assignment after more than a year out.
Absent 582 days (longest in field)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £11.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A low win rate on this ground from 4 previous runs. The ground could work against the horse today.
- 2m 7f is a good distance for this horse. Over its best distance, it can run its own race.
- Up against stronger rivals than before. Moving up to a harder race tests whether a horse is improving.
TrackLab Insight
Buzz Iceclear is a wet-ground specialist with 2 wins from 5 races on soft turf, but he has never raced on slightly soft ground and holds 0 wins from 4 starts on good-to-soft conditions. The relatively inexperienced six-year-old (9 career races) is a genuine long shot in an unfamiliar setup, despite his natural preference for mud.
Relatively inexperienced (9 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £15.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A 2m 7f race suits this horse well. When a horse is comfortable with the distance, it can settle into a good rhythm.
- 2 wins at this race length. Distance matters. If it is too short, the horse cannot use its staying power. If it is too long, the horse gets tired.
- Has not raced for 576 days. That is a long time away, and we cannot be sure the horse will be fit enough.
TrackLab Insight
Court Cian thrives on softened ground—he has won 2 from 4 races on similar conditions, a 50% win rate that towers over his 19% career win rate. Back after a year away, he also boasts 2 wins from 3 races at this distance, making him a genuine threat if his physical condition has held up through the absence.
Best record on this ground (2 from 4)
Best record at this trip (2 from 3)
Unfancied in the market despite a high rating
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £23.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Wins 29% of the time on this type of ground. Some horses run much better on soft or firm ground. This one suits today's ground.
- Has not won at this distance before. We do not know if the race length suits the horse.
- A 19.0% record at this course for D. Skelton. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
The editorial verdict backs Mostly Sunny as the one to beat, and his record on soft and slightly soft ground (2 wins from 7 starts at 29%) is solid for a stamina test. However, his most recent outing was a 13th-place finish just 18 days ago, and he has won just 6 races from 39 starts over his career—form that demands he bounce back convincingly.
Most experienced (39 runs, field avg 16)
Unfancied in the market despite a high rating
What the colours mean
40+ Very strong chance
20–39 Strong chance
12–19 Solid chance
6–11 Could surprise
Under 6 Long shot
Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
- Underrated horse
- We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
- Our top pick
- The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
- TrackLab Score
- Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
- Ground
- How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
- Race level (Class)
- From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
- Group, Grade and Listed
- The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
- Handicap
- The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
- Maiden
- A race for horses that haven't won yet.
- Novice
- A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
- Chase, hurdle and bumper
- Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
- Distance (m and f)
- m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
- Each way
- A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
- Weight
- How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
- Jockey claim
- An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
- Headgear
- Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.