Bangor-on-Dee
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Bangor-On-Dee Handicap Steeple Chase
Starts in
2h 55min
Turf track
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score
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Our top pick for this race
Strong chance
Odds 10/3
£1 wins £3.33 · 22 Strong chance
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £4.33 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- H. Brown wins 20.8% of all their races. That is a strong record. A jockey who wins often gives a horse a better chance.
- Has raced 3 times on this ground with a low win rate. Today's ground may not suit it.
- Last raced 23 days ago. That is a normal gap between runs.
TrackLab Insight
Market favourite at 4/1 after drifting hard from 1/9, suggesting the market has serious doubts despite recent second place at Uttoxeter. That win nine months ago sits on good ground; this slightly soft surface represents a different challenge entirely, with a 0% record on similar conditions. The form has been patchy — two strong runs sandwiched around a 38-length beating — so consistency remains the question mark.
Market favourite (4/1)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £5.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- A Chase Turf race works in this horse's favour. Horses often do best in one type of race and struggle in others.
- Has not raced for 192 days. That is a long time away, and we cannot be sure the horse will be fit enough.
TrackLab Insight
Six races without a win, but the trend line is encouraging: three third-place finishes including one at this very course 192 days ago. Second in the market at 6/1, suggesting some confidence he can break through, though the winless record after six attempts is notable. He's been competitive at this track before, which is a positive for the return visit.
2nd in the market (6/1)
4
Falco des Pins
£1 wins £6 · 13 Solid chance
Very little experience on today's ground
13
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £7.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- This is a Chase Turf race, and it suits this horse. Running in the right type of race matters.
- Has been off the track for 227 days. That is a long break. Some horses come back fresh. Others need a run to get fit again.
TrackLab Insight
The horse with the best recent form: two wins and two top-3 finishes in his last four races, having finally found his level after a long blank. He's been absent 227 days (longest in the field) since that second at Fontwell, but when he raced in late winter, he was genuinely competitive in Class 5 company. The concern is whether that form holds after such a long gap, and slightly soft ground has seen him winless (0 from 3).
Absent 227 days (longest in field)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £9.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- This type of ground has not suited the horse: 5 runs without much success. Some horses prefer different ground.
- B. Aprahamian has a good 20% record here. A trainer who does well at one course is worth noting.
- 166 days without racing. A long break can be a worry, as it takes time to rebuild fitness.
TrackLab Insight
Seven years old and the most experienced horse in the field (16 races), but with just one win from those starts — roughly 1 in every 16 outings. The standout weakness: he has zero wins from eight starts on anything softer than good ground, and this is slightly soft, making that a serious concern. He did finish third at Fontwell 166 days ago, but the form isn't recent enough to inspire confidence.
Most experienced (16 runs, field avg 8)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £8.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- This is a Chase Turf race, and it suits this horse. Running in the right type of race matters.
- 16 days since the last run. That is a usual break, so there is nothing to read into it.
TrackLab Insight
Eight races, nothing won, nothing finished in the top 3 — the only horse in the field with a completely blank record — and he's 23 pounds below the average rating, suggesting he's at least 7-10 pounds worse than most rivals here. Raced just 16 days ago and finished fifth at Chepstow, which fits his pattern of mid-field finishes without ever threatening to break through. He carries the lowest weight (142lbs) but that's the only advantage.
Lowest rated, 23lbs below average
Carries lowest weight in field
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £10.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- This horse is suited to this Chase Turf race. A horse in its best type of race can just focus on running.
- Came 11th in the last race. It might have been an off day, or the horse may be losing form.
TrackLab Insight
Five races, no wins yet, but finished third at Hereford and fourth at Newbury — suggesting he's at least starting to engage with decent company. The trainer has deliberately held him back due to his physical development (tall and lightly built), which hints at potential, but he's also drifted from 1/10 to 20/1, so the market isn't convinced. Last run was an 11th-place finisher 189 days ago, so race fitness is a major question.
Top-3 finishes in 2 of last 3 races
8
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £9.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- This horse is suited to this Chase Turf race. A horse in its best type of race can just focus on running.
- Has not raced for 164 days. That is a long time away, and we cannot be sure the horse will be fit enough.
TrackLab Insight
Four-year-old with zero wins but three top-3 finishes from six races, showing he's at least consistently competitive without quite getting there. He has raced at Bangor-On-Dee before (fell once, finished third once), so there's track familiarity. However, a 210-day gap before his most recent race raises questions about how sharp he is, and he's been out for some time despite recent activity listed.
Mid-range in the market (9/1)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £12.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- This horse is suited to this Chase Turf race. A horse in its best type of race can just focus on running.
- There is £4,225 in prize money in this race. That attracts good horses, and this one looks to belong among them.
- O. Greenall & Josh Guerriero wins only 14.6% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
Four races, four blanks — no wins, no top-3 finishes — and has drifted from 1/10 to 12/1, which tells you everything about market confidence. The key here is he's never raced on slightly soft ground, so there's genuine uncertainty about whether this surface suits him. Coming off a 192-day break, he faces a field with significantly more recent race fitness.
Never raced on slightly soft ground
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £12.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- This is a Chase Turf race, and it suits this horse. Running in the right type of race matters.
- There is little recent data for J. & A.J. O'Neill's stable. It is hard to judge their current form.
TrackLab Insight
Best win rate in the field at roughly 1 in 5, with two victories from nine races — the standout statistic here. However, her last two runs ended in failure (unseated at Newton Abbot, pulled up at Kelso 174 days ago), so recency is a problem; she'll need to rediscover form after a lengthy absence. The win at Catterick in Class 4 came 237 days back, leaving questions about whether she's ready to fire again.
Best career win rate in field (1 in 4)
What the colours mean
40+ Very strong chance
20–39 Strong chance
12–19 Solid chance
6–11 Could surprise
Under 6 Long shot
Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
- Underrated horse
- We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
- Our top pick
- The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
- TrackLab Score
- Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
- Ground
- How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
- Race level (Class)
- From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
- Group, Grade and Listed
- The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
- Handicap
- The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
- Maiden
- A race for horses that haven't won yet.
- Novice
- A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
- Chase, hurdle and bumper
- Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
- Distance (m and f)
- m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
- Each way
- A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
- Weight
- How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
- Jockey claim
- An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
- Headgear
- Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.