Bangor-on-Dee
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Kellyhill Financial Planning Mares' Handicap Hurdle Race (Challenger Mares' Hurdle Series Qualifier)
Starts in
2h 35min
Turf track
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score
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10
Queen Maeve
£1 wins £2.75 · 26 Strong chance
D. Skelton has won 18.7% of their races in their career
26
Our top pick for this race
Strong chance
Odds 11/4
£1 wins £2.75 · 26 Strong chance
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £3.75 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- D. Skelton has won 18.7% of their races in their career. Trainers at this level know how to get horses ready.
- D. Skelton wins 18.7% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
- At 4 years old, age works against this horse. It is either too young to have much experience, or older and possibly past its best.
TrackLab Insight
The market favourite at 13/5 and won at Sandown just this week as a four-year-old, but has never raced on slightly soft ground and her sample size is tiny (four races, one win). The Skelton yard has a prolific record but Queen Maeve's lack of experience on this surface and the long gaps between runs (she last raced 185 days before this week's win) present unknowns.
Never raced on slightly soft ground
Market favourite (13/5)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £4.33 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- Has won over this distance 1 time. We know the horse can last this far, which removes one big question.
- Has not raced for 314 days. That is a long time away, and we cannot be sure the horse will be fit enough.
TrackLab Insight
The longest absentee in the field — 314 days since last racing — and returns from a 102-day gap after a sixth-place finish at Ludlow. Her single career win came 385 days ago; with just one victory from eight races overall and a lengthy absence to overcome, she carries too much rust for today's contest.
Absent 314 days (longest in field)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £7.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- No worries here. As a mare, past results suggest this type of horse suits this kind of race.
- Has had 26 days off since its last race. That is a routine gap that should not help or hurt.
TrackLab Insight
Just landed her breakthrough victory at Southwell 26 days ago after eight races without success, and sits in the middle of three straight top-3 finishes — a run that suggests the yard has found something working. The tight turnaround (26 days since that win) and modest 11% career win rate mean momentum is the best argument here rather than tested ability.
3 straight top-3 finishes
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £9.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- B. Morgan has a good 22.2% record here. Knowing the course is one of a jockey's biggest strengths.
- Has not raced for 191 days. That is a long time away, and we cannot be sure the horse will be fit enough.
TrackLab Insight
Comes in fresh from a career-first win at Stratford just this week and is trained by Ben Pauling, the same handler who has 86 winners this season. However, she has never won on soft ground from three attempts and her overall record (1 win from 7 races) is modest — the breakthrough win matters but the sample size remains small.
2nd in the market (6/1)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £10.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- With a 15.8% win rate overall, B. Jones is one of the more dependable riders.
- A 13.9% record at this course for B. Pauling. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
Wins roughly 1 in 3 races — the best win rate in this field — and fits the editorial case as a progressive six-year-old who has raced recently (eight days ago) and looks ready to build on a Class 4 win at Ludlow. The slightly soft ground and 2m 4f trip suit a horse of her profile, though a pull-up at Newbury 220 days ago shows jumping is not always straightforward.
Best career win rate in field (1 in 3)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £9.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- A 2m 4½f race suits this horse well. When a horse is comfortable with the distance, it can settle into a good rhythm.
- M. Keighley wins only 5.8% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
Winless from 10 career races despite having four top-3 finishes, and has never found the winner's enclosure at Class 4 level across seven attempts there. Her two top-3 finishes in the last six races suggest she remains competitive but the blank record — particularly when others in this field win regularly — is a stubborn obstacle.
Winless from 10 career races
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £13.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A 33% win rate on this ground from 3 runs. Just like people, horses have favourite surfaces. This one likes today's ground.
- Today's race is over 2m 4½f. That distance looks right for this horse. Running over the right distance matters a lot.
- With an average finish of 5 lately, recent results are poor. This horse needs to improve.
TrackLab Insight
Only six races into her career but has already won at Class 2 level at Aintree, suggesting she belongs among better horses than this handicap. Matches Betty's Daisy and Analiese on win rate (1 in 3), and raced as recently as eight days ago, though a heavy defeat at Newbury in her last start leaves her competitive claims unclear.
Outsider at 13/1
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £19.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- This horse runs well on today's ground, with a 25% win rate from 8 runs. The ground makes a big difference in racing.
- This horse is happy on Good ground. When the ground suits, a horse can run to its best.
- 11 runners today is not the number this horse wants. The number of runners changes how a race is run.
TrackLab Insight
The most experienced runner with 25 races behind her, rated highest by the editorial panel alongside I Spy A Diva, and holds the best record at this trip (1 win from 3 attempts). However, her form has stalled — no wins from six starts since February — and she has never won on soft ground, which raises questions about today's slightly soft surface.
Best record at this trip (1 from 3)
Most experienced (25 runs, field avg 10)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £23.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has yet to win over this distance. It is like asking a sprinter to run a marathon. Distance matters, and this horse has not shown it can win here.
- Today's race is over 2m 4½f. That distance looks right for this horse. Running over the right distance matters a lot.
- K. Bailey & Mat Nicholls has a 0% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
Rated top of the field on the figures but has not raced for 299 days and arrives returning from a lengthy break with poor form on soft ground (0 wins from 4 starts). At nine years old and with only a 24% win rate across 17 races, the long absence and track record on this ground type present real concerns despite the official rating.
One of the more successful in the field (4 career wins)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £34.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- J. Parkinson & Sue Smith wins 22.7% of their races at this course. Some trainers aim horses at particular tracks, and this one does well here.
- 243 days without racing. A long break can be a worry, as it takes time to rebuild fitness.
TrackLab Insight
The lowest-rated runner at 12 pounds below average and carries the lowest weight (146lbs), but has not won in five months despite one victory from six races overall. She shows promise on fast ground (33% win rate there) rather than soft, and a 243-day absence before a recent break makes any case for her thin.
Lowest rated, 12lbs below average
Carries lowest weight in field
What the colours mean
40+ Very strong chance
20–39 Strong chance
12–19 Solid chance
6–11 Could surprise
Under 6 Long shot
Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
- Underrated horse
- We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
- Our top pick
- The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
- TrackLab Score
- Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
- Ground
- How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
- Race level (Class)
- From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
- Group, Grade and Listed
- The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
- Handicap
- The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
- Maiden
- A race for horses that haven't won yet.
- Novice
- A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
- Chase, hurdle and bumper
- Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
- Distance (m and f)
- m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
- Each way
- A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
- Weight
- How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
- Jockey claim
- An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
- Headgear
- Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.