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Ayr

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Ayr
Awaiting result
Jumps race · low hurdles · weighted to be fair Underrated horse: Chanceawetmorning +1 About 2.6 miles Unknown Standard race 10 runners
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score

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Chanceawetmorning Underrated horse
Mr O. McGill · N. C Kelly · 6yo · 11st 9lb · Official rating 109
£1 wins £6 · 22 Strong chance
N. C Kelly's horses finish their races 0% of the time
Form
22
Our top pick for this race
Strong chance
Odds 6/1
£1 wins £6 · 22 Strong chance
Underrated horse

We think it's more likely to win than the odds suggest, so if it wins, it pays more than it should. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £7.00 back.

How odds work
✓ Trainer form ✓ Jockey overall win rate ✓ Trainer wins at this course
Won 0 of last 5
Why this score
  • N. C Kelly's horses finish their races 0% of the time. That is a reliable stable. Horses that finish are usually fit and well prepared.
  • Mr O. McGill has won 16.1% of their races in their career. That steady record counts for a lot.
  • Finishing positions are getting worse. A horse that is losing form may not turn it around today.
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £18.00 back.

How odds work
Back quickly after its last run Won 2 of last 5 Won at this distance 1 time
Why this score
  • J. Candlish's horses finish their races 42.9% of the time. That is a reliable stable. Horses that finish are usually fit and well prepared.
  • Today's race is over 2m 4½f. That distance looks right for this horse. Running over the right distance matters a lot.
  • J. Candlish has a 4.5% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £10.00 back.

How odds work
Back after 95 days off Trainer in form Won 1 of last 5 Raced here before
Why this score
  • N. Richards's runners finish 69.2% of their races. Trainers whose horses finish often tend to have them fit and ready.
  • 2m 4½f is a good distance for this horse. Over its best distance, it can run its own race.
  • A 16.7% career win rate for N. Richards. That is below the top trainers.
Underrated horse

We think it's more likely to win than the odds suggest, so if it wins, it pays more than it should. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1001.00 back.

How odds work
Trainer in form Won 1 of last 5 Won here 1 time
Why this score
  • N. Richards's runners finish 69.2% of their races. Trainers whose horses finish often tend to have them fit and ready.
  • 2m 4½f is a good distance for this horse. Over its best distance, it can run its own race.
  • N. Richards has a 16.7% overall win rate, which is on the low side. That may mean the horse is not at its best.
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £9.00 back.

How odds work
Won 3 of last 5
Why this score
  • M. Hammond's horses finish their races 54.5% of the time. That is a reliable stable. Horses that finish are usually fit and well prepared.
  • This horse jumps the 12 in this race well. In jumps racing, getting over obstacles smoothly matters as much as speed.
  • A 0% record at this course for J. Thompson. Some jockeys just do not do well at some courses.
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £12.00 back.

How odds work
Wearing visor Won 0 of last 5 Raced here before Won at this distance 2 times
Why this score
  • M. Walford's horses finish their races 45.5% of the time. That is a reliable stable. Horses that finish are usually fit and well prepared.
  • 2m 4½f is a good distance for this horse. Over its best distance, it can run its own race.
  • A 9.7% career win rate for M. Walford. That is below the top trainers.
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £12.00 back.

How odds work
Wearing visor Trainer in form Won 0 of last 5 Raced here before
Why this score
  • N. W. Alexander's runners finish 40% of their races. Trainers whose horses finish often tend to have them fit and ready.
  • With a 15.9% win rate overall, Mr K. Alexander is one of the more dependable riders.
  • Came 8th in the last race. It might have been an off day, or the horse may be losing form.
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £34.00 back.

How odds work
Won 0 of last 5
Why this score
  • J. & A J O'Neill's runners finish 26.9% of their races. Trainers whose horses finish often tend to have them fit and ready.
  • A 15.1% overall win rate for J. O'Neill Jr. Good jockeys make better decisions during a race.
  • J. & A J O'Neill wins 11.5% of their races overall. That is below the top trainers.
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £29.00 back.

How odds work
Has won at this course and distance Wearing cheekpieces Won 1 of last 5 Won here 3 times Won at this distance 4 times
Why this score
  • R. Mike Smith's horses finish their races 0% of the time. That is a reliable stable. Horses that finish are usually fit and well prepared.
  • Today's race is over 2m 4½f. That distance looks right for this horse. Running over the right distance matters a lot.
  • Has won here 3 times in 13 visits. That record at this course is a good sign.
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £67.00 back.

How odds work
Wearing cheekpieces Won 0 of last 5 Raced here before
Why this score
  • R. Mike Smith's horses finish 0% of their races. That steady record suggests good preparation.
  • Starting from a good position. On some tracks, starting on one side can save ground.
  • R. Mike Smith has a 7.1% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
What the colours mean
40+ Very strong chance 20–39 Strong chance 12–19 Solid chance 6–11 Could surprise Under 6 Long shot Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.

What these words mean

Underrated horse
We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
Our top pick
The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
TrackLab Score
Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
Ground
How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
Race level (Class)
From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
Group, Grade and Listed
The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
Handicap
The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
Maiden
A race for horses that haven't won yet.
Novice
A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
Chase, hurdle and bumper
Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
Distance (m and f)
m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
Each way
A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
Weight
How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
Jockey claim
An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
Headgear
Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.
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