Ayr
·
Ayr
Awaiting result
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score
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Nakassama
Very underrated horse
£1 wins £4.50 · 39 Strong chance
N. C Kelly's horses finish 0% of their races
39
Our top pick for this race
Strong chance
Odds 9/2
£1 wins £4.50 · 39 Strong chance
Underrated horse
We think it's more likely to win than the odds suggest, so if it wins, it pays more than it should. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £5.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- N. C Kelly's horses finish 0% of their races. That steady record suggests good preparation.
- Has not won at this distance before. We do not know if the race length suits the horse.
- This is not the jockey's strongest course. Their weak record here works against the horse.
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £4.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- N. W. Alexander's horses finish 40% of their races. That steady record suggests good preparation.
- Last raced 34 days ago. That is a normal gap between runs.
- N. W. Alexander wins 11.9% of their races overall. That is below the top trainers.
14
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £67.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- I. Duncan's horses finish their races 100% of the time. That is a reliable stable. Horses that finish are usually fit and well prepared.
- 7 runners today is a good number for this horse. The number of runners affects how a race is run.
- 1 win from 5 runs at this track. When a horse likes a course, it often runs well there again.
Shes Notjoeking
£1 wins £16 · 12 Solid chance
L. Russell & Michael Scudamore's horses finish 51.4% of their races
12
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £17.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- L. Russell & Michael Scudamore's horses finish 51.4% of their races. That steady record suggests good preparation.
- With a 15.4% win rate overall, C. McCann is one of the more dependable riders.
- L. Russell & Michael Scudamore wins only 7.4% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £101.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- R. Mike Smith's runners finish 0% of their races. Trainers whose horses finish often tend to have them fit and ready.
- The starting stall helps today. At this course, some stalls have done better than others.
- A 7.1% record at this course for R. Mike Smith. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
£1 wins £80 · 2 Long shot
L. Russell & Michael Scudamore's horses finish 51.4% of their races
2
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £81.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- L. Russell & Michael Scudamore's horses finish 51.4% of their races. That steady record suggests good preparation.
- This is a 7-runner race, and the size suits this horse. Some horses prefer a small field with less traffic. Others do well in a crowd.
- A 7.4% record at this course for L. Russell & Michael Scudamore. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £151.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- The starting stall helps today. At this course, some stalls have done better than others.
- A 2m race suits this horse well. When a horse is comfortable with the distance, it can settle into a good rhythm.
- The trainer's horses do not always finish their races. That raises questions about fitness and preparation.
What the colours mean
40+ Very strong chance
20–39 Strong chance
12–19 Solid chance
6–11 Could surprise
Under 6 Long shot
Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
- Underrated horse
- We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
- Our top pick
- The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
- TrackLab Score
- Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
- Ground
- How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
- Race level (Class)
- From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
- Group, Grade and Listed
- The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
- Handicap
- The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
- Maiden
- A race for horses that haven't won yet.
- Novice
- A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
- Chase, hurdle and bumper
- Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
- Distance (m and f)
- m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
- Each way
- A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
- Weight
- How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
- Jockey claim
- An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
- Headgear
- Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.