Thank You Blue

Sedgefield is where Thank You Blue has found his magic. He has won 3 of his 7 races there, a win rate of 43 percent — genuinely remarkable for a horse at his level. His last win came at Sedgefield on 19 February, eight months ago, which means he has been chasing that feeling for most of the year without success. The horse also thrives on wet or muddy ground, winning 2 of 7 races (29 percent) on muddy tracks and 2 of 8 (25 percent) on softer surfaces. In an English racing calendar that brings mud more often than not, that is a significant edge.

Trainer Jennie Candlish, based at Basford in Staffordshire, has worked hard to get Thank You Blue right. He was troubled by jumping issues over fences — falling twice and being pulled up three times — but has flourished back over hurdles this season. The partnership with jockey Lewis Stones has yielded 4 wins from 22 races together, a 18 percent win rate that suggests real understanding between rider and horse. Thank You Blue runs most often in mid-tier races and has won 3 of 17 at that level. Given his recent sequence of near-misses, Sedgefield in the rain would be the ideal spot for him to get back in the winner's circle.