Kaiya Fraser

The most interesting thing about Fraser's recent form is the direction of travel. Her win rate has dipped slightly this season — down from around 1 in every 7 rides last year to 1 in every 10 — but the last two weeks suggest a rider who may be finding her rhythm again. Two winners from her last 10 rides is a 20% return, double her season average, which is exactly the kind of purple patch that gets trainers reaching for the phone.

Her longest-running partnership is with trainer Rebecca Menzies, and while 8 wins from 99 rides together — roughly 1 in every 12 — might not look spectacular on paper, that volume of rides reflects a real working relationship built on trust. When a trainer keeps putting you up race after race, it says something beyond statistics.

What sets Fraser apart is how she performs when conditions get testing. On wet or muddy ground, she wins 3 from 14 races — roughly 1 in every 5 — which is twice her overall average. Some jockeys fade when the ground gets heavy and the races turn into a slog; Fraser appears to thrive on it. Nottingham tells a similar story: 3 winners from just 7 rides there is a remarkable return, suggesting a jockey who reads that particular track exceptionally well. At nearly 1 in every 2 rides ending in victory at Nottingham, it is the kind of record that makes her almost unmissable when she is declared to ride there.

Still only four years into her career and already past 129 winners, Fraser looks like a rider with plenty more to add to that tally — particularly when the skies open.