Brazilian Rose

The horse's strongest asset is Southwell, where it has an almost uncanny record. From just seven races at the track, Brazilian Rose has won four of them — a 57% win rate that is genuinely exceptional and makes Southwell feel like home. Its last victory there came in March, five months ago, which suggests the horse has hit a lean spell recently. Indeed, looking at its last six runs, the record reads 7-12-9-6-5-3: a string of placed finishes and moderate efforts, with not a single win in that stretch. That kind of form can happen to any horse; the question now is whether it can find its way back into the winner's circle or whether age and repetition are beginning to catch up with it.

Kaiya Fraser has ridden the horse for most of its wins, scoring 7 victories from 21 races together at an impressive 33%, well above the horse's overall rate. There is a real partnership there, and Fraser's presence in the saddle seems to bring out the best in it. The horse also excels when sprinting — over 5 furlongs to 6½ furlongs, it wins roughly 1 in every 3 races. Brazilian Rose runs for trainer Rebecca Menzies at Morden in Durham, and while the yard has been firing on all cylinders this season with thirty-six winners, this particular horse looks to be in need of a spark. Its moment may come at Southwell, but consistency has been elusive of late.