Wexford
·
Challenge Series Maiden Hurdle
Starts in
5h 57min
Turf track
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score
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Our top pick for this race
Strong chance
Odds 7/4
£1 wins £1.75 · 35 Strong chance
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £2.75 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- G. Elliott wins 15.2% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
- A 17.6% overall win rate for J. Kennedy. Good jockeys make better decisions during a race.
- 14 runners today is not the number this horse wants. The number of runners changes how a race is run.
TrackLab Insight
The market favourite at 7/4 has raced just once and never on wet ground, making this a significant step into the unknown. What counts in his favour is that he's trained by Gordon Elliott and ridden by Jack Kennedy—a combination with 355 wins together—so the yard knows how to prepare a runner, but one race tells you almost nothing about a horse's real ability.
Never raced on wet ground
Lightly raced (1 career races)
Market favourite (7/4)
11
Lirakali
£1 wins £1.50 · 32 Strong chance
H. de Bromhead has won 13.2% of their races in their career
32
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £2.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- H. de Bromhead has won 13.2% of their races in their career. Trainers at this level know how to get horses ready.
- Finishing 2nd last time is encouraging. A horse that finishes well is usually in good shape.
- This is a 14-runner race, and the size is not ideal. A big field means more traffic. A small field means nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Lirakali is lightly raced but shows a pattern that stands out: he's finished second in both career runs, most recently just 0.1 lengths back at Gowran Park, suggesting a horse who is competitive and close to breaking through. The problem is he's never raced on wet ground and hasn't run for 164 days before his most recent outing, so this comeback test on unfamiliar terrain adds real uncertainty.
Never raced on wet ground
Lightly raced (2 career races)
£1 wins £7.50 · 9 Could surprise
P. J. Rothwell has won 5.3% of their races in their career
9
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £8.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- P. J. Rothwell has won 5.3% of their races in their career. Trainers at this level know how to get horses ready.
- Finished 4th in the last race, which is a good result. A good last run suggests the horse is in good shape.
- P. J. Rothwell has a 6% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
Jessbers Wish is returning from a 303-day absence—the longest layoff in the field—and has never won or finished in the top three from two career races. The long break plus wet ground conditions he's never seen before make this a tough proposition for a lightly-raced horse still searching for a breakthrough.
Never raced on wet ground
Lightly raced (2 career races)
Absent 303 days (longest in field)
£1 wins £9 · 6 Could surprise
Last raced 20 days ago. That is a normal gap between runs
6
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £10.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Last raced 20 days ago. That is a normal gap between runs.
- E. Walsh wins 7.5% of all their races. That is a strong record. A jockey who wins often gives a horse a better chance.
- J. M Burke wins only 0% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
Farney Bridge has the best win rate in this field at roughly 1 in 5 races, but there's a major worry: he's never raced on wet ground and arrives here on a track that will test him hard. His only career win came at Killarney on good ground back in July, and his recent form reads 3-4-4, suggesting he's struggling to reproduce that level.
Never raced on wet ground
Best career win rate in field (1 in 5)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £17.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- G. Elliott has won 15.2% of their races in their career. Trainers at this level know how to get horses ready.
- S. Ewing wins 9.5% of all their races. That is a strong record. A jockey who wins often gives a horse a better chance.
- 14 runners today is not the number this horse wants. The number of runners changes how a race is run.
TrackLab Insight
Llem's is trained by Gordon Elliott and ridden by Sam Ewing, a combination with 80 wins together, but the horse himself has raced three times without a win or place and took a fall at Leopardstown 301 days ago. Recent form shows a fourth at Tramore, his nearest thing to a competitive effort, but he's never tackled wet ground.
Never raced on wet ground
Lightly raced (3 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £17.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- J. McConnell wins 6.9% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
- A 9.4% overall win rate for D. Mullins. Good jockeys make better decisions during a race.
- A 4.2% record at this course for J. McConnell. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
Making his racecourse debut here at five years old—unusually late—Oyster Cottage is an unknown quantity with no form to assess. He's trained by John McConnell, who has a winning record with the jockey Danny Mullins, but a debut on wet ground with no racing experience makes this a genuine lottery.
Racecourse debut
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £19.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Finishing 3rd last time is encouraging. A horse that finishes well is usually in good shape.
- J. McConnell has won 6.9% of their races in their career. Trainers at this level know how to get horses ready.
- J. McConnell has a 4.2% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
Game Shadow's record is eye-catching: a 33% win rate from just three races, with a victory at Perth in August to show for it. The concern is that he's never tackled wet ground and his most recent outing saw him finish third beaten 19 lengths at Listowel, suggesting a significant drop-off in form since that breakthrough win.
Never raced on wet ground
Lightly raced (3 career races)
£1 wins £18 · 2 Long shot
P. J. Rothwell has won 5.3% of their races in their career
2
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £19.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- P. J. Rothwell has won 5.3% of their races in their career. Trainers at this level know how to get horses ready.
- The starting stall helps today. At this course, some stalls have done better than others.
- A 6% record at this course for P. J. Rothwell. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
Two races, zero wins, zero top-3 finishes—Backinbusiness hasn't broken through yet and his most recent outing was 141 days ago, making this a genuine comeback run. He's never raced on wet ground and the long break means he'll need to find his feet quickly in testing conditions.
Never raced on wet ground
Lightly raced (2 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £67.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has yet to win over this distance. It is like asking a sprinter to run a marathon. Distance matters, and this horse has not shown it can win here.
- Results are getting better with each run. A horse on the way up has a good chance of a win soon.
- This is a 14-runner race, and the size is not ideal. A big field means more traffic. A small field means nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
At 10 years old, L'Un Deux Trois brings the most experience by a distance—34 career races compared to a field average of just 5—and he's the only horse here with a proven record on wet ground, winning 1 from 9 starts in those conditions. That said, his recent form is alarming: 15th last time out beaten 76 lengths, and he's won just 4 times across his entire career, so experience alone won't solve a deeper problem.
Best record on this ground (1 from 9)
Most experienced (34 runs, field avg 5)
Unfancied in the market despite a high rating
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £81.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- T. McGuinness wins 20% of their races at this course. Some trainers aim horses at particular tracks, and this one does well here.
- 14 runners today is not the number this horse wants. The number of runners changes how a race is run.
TrackLab Insight
Victors Spirit turns out again just six days after a 13th-place finish at Gowran Park, which is a tight turnaround that raises questions about his readiness. His win rate of 1 in 12 races reflects a horse that struggles to convert near-misses into victories, and he's never raced on wet ground either.
Runs again after just 6 days
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £23.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- R. Doyle wins 6.2% of all their races. That is a strong record. A jockey who wins often gives a horse a better chance.
- Has been off the track for 281 days. That is a long break. Some horses come back fresh. Others need a run to get fit again.
- This is a 14-runner race, and the size is not ideal. A big field means more traffic. A small field means nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Grey Balls Of Fire has raced just once, finishing ninth, and has been away for 281 days before this return. His trainer C A Murphy is in good form this season with nine winners already, but the horse himself offers almost no form to work with and arrives here cold, never having experienced wet ground.
Never raced on wet ground
Lightly raced (1 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £41.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- 30 days since the last run. That is a usual break, so there is nothing to read into it.
- An 11% overall win rate for C. A. Murphy. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
- A 2% career win rate for R. Berry. That is on the low side and could matter today.
TrackLab Insight
Jetaway Mountain has raced twice without winning or placing, but his recent trend is encouraging: he finished eighth last time before that sixth at Wexford, showing steady improvement. He's never been on wet ground, however, and that upward curve may well stall in conditions he hasn't experienced.
Never raced on wet ground
Lightly raced (2 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £34.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Set to carry 158 lbs. In racing every pound counts, and this horse is not carrying too much.
- The starting stall helps today. At this course, some stalls have done better than others.
- R. O'Sullivan wins only 0% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
Making his racecourse debut here, Katoomba arrives with no form to assess—he could be anything. The positive is that his trainer Ross O'Sullivan has sent out 40 winners already this season, suggesting a yard in good working order that should have prepared him properly for this moment.
Racecourse debut
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £81.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- With a 6.2% win rate overall, P. Enright is one of the more dependable riders.
- A 4.3% record at this course for R. Tyner. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
At six years old with just one race under his belt, Orchard Cross is extremely lightly raced and finished sixth on that sole outing 217 days ago. The long gap between races and the complete lack of wet-ground experience make him a difficult horse to trust on the day.
Lightly raced (1 career races)
What the colours mean
40+ Very strong chance
20–39 Strong chance
12–19 Solid chance
6–11 Could surprise
Under 6 Long shot
Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
- Underrated horse
- We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
- Our top pick
- The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
- TrackLab Score
- Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
- Ground
- How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
- Race level (Class)
- From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
- Group, Grade and Listed
- The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
- Handicap
- The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
- Maiden
- A race for horses that haven't won yet.
- Novice
- A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
- Chase, hurdle and bumper
- Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
- Distance (m and f)
- m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
- Each way
- A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
- Weight
- How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
- Jockey claim
- An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
- Headgear
- Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.