Sedgefield
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Sedgefield Christmas Jumper Raceday 22nd December Novices' Limited Handicap Hurdle Race
Starts in
3h 12min
Turf track
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score
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Our top pick for this race
Strong chance
Odds 11/4
£1 wins £2.75 · 23 Strong chance
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £3.75 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A 21.3% win rate at this course for N. Richards. Trainers who know a course often send out their horses well suited to it.
- A low win rate on this ground from 3 previous runs. The ground could work against the horse today.
- Has had 41 days off since its last race. That is a routine gap that should not help or hurt.
TrackLab Insight
Carries an underrated label at 5/1, the second-shortest odds in the race, but the record is stark: winless from eight races with just one top-3 finish ever. Recent form at Perth (seventh and ninth) shows the horse finishing further back than the odds suggest, and the long absence raises fresh questions about readiness.
2nd in the market (5/1)
£1 wins £3 · 22 Strong chance
Has raced 13 times on this ground with a low win rate
22
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £4.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has raced 13 times on this ground with a low win rate. Today's ground may not suit it.
- A 2m 4f race suits this horse well. When a horse is comfortable with the distance, it can settle into a good rhythm.
- 16 days since the last run. That is a usual break, so there is nothing to read into it.
TrackLab Insight
Most experienced in the field with 34 races, and the market favourite at 7/4 after rattling off three consecutive top-3 finishes, including a narrow second at Sedgefield 16 days ago. Yet she remains winless across her entire career, a pattern of near-misses that suggests she wins races for other horses rather than her own the yard.
Most experienced (34 runs, field avg 14)
3 straight top-3 finishes
Market favourite (7/4)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £6.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- D. McCain has a good 20% record here. A trainer who does well at one course is worth noting.
- 2m 4f is a good distance for this horse. Over its best distance, it can run its own race.
- Only 9th last time out. That is not what we want to see before today's race.
TrackLab Insight
Second-rated in the editoral verdict at 91, and the standout fact is his 12% win rate on good ground—by far the best record in the field on today's conditions. However, recent form is deeply concerning: ninth and eighth in his last two runs at Sedgefield and Worcester, with a two-month absence raising questions about whether something is amiss.
Best record on this ground (1 from 7)
Best career win rate in field (1 in 13)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £7.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- C. Grant wins 7.3% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
- C. Grant wins 7.3% of their races overall. That is below the top trainers.
TrackLab Insight
Rated seven pounds clear of the second-best in the editorial verdict (98 v 91), but the critical issue is the 226-day absence—far the longest in the field. Last seen finishing seventh at Carlisle, Art Dancer's comeback attempt on soft ground after such a lengthy layoff carries genuine risk despite the superior rating on paper.
Absent 226 days (longest in field)
£1 wins £8.50 · 11 Could surprise
This type of ground has not suited the horse
11
Underrated horse
We think it's more likely to win than the odds suggest, so if it wins, it pays more than it should. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £9.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- This type of ground has not suited the horse: 7 runs without much success. Some horses prefer different ground.
- B. Hughes wins 19.8% of their races at this course. Knowing the track is an advantage for any jockey.
- Set to carry 156 lbs. It is like running with a heavy backpack. The more you carry, the harder it gets.
TrackLab Insight
Seven-year-old winless from 11 races with a recent pattern of pulled-ups at Carlisle and Uttoxeter, raising durability concerns. The lack of recent form and the absence of a breakthrough across more than a season's worth of racing suggests this horse has run out of time to deliver at this level.
Winless from 11 career races
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £13.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- 2m 4f is a good distance for this horse. Over its best distance, it can run its own race.
- A prize fund of £3,248 is healthy. When trainers aim at valuable races, they usually have faith in their runner.
- B. Murphy wins only 0% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
Five-year-old with two wins from 28 races and a 12% win rate on standard ground—strong credentials for today. However, his last three runs show a pattern of just missing out (fifth, third, fourth), and he has struggled badly on good-to-firm and softer ground, which limits his ceiling at a track like Sedgefield.
One of the more successful in the field (2 career wins)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £17.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has raced 4 times on this ground with a low win rate. Today's ground may not suit it.
- Facing weaker rivals than last time out. When a horse drops to an easier race, it often finds things easier.
- A 0% record at this course for D. J. Jeffreys. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
Nine-year-old with no wins from six races, but showed real promise with a third-place finish at Market Rasen just 26 days ago. That run suggests Slievehill can be competitive at this level, though the lack of a breakthrough in over a year of racing raises questions about whether it has the finishing kick needed.
Mid-range in the market (12/1)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £21.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has raced 8 times on this ground with a low win rate. Today's ground may not suit it.
- 2m 4f is a good distance for this horse. Over its best distance, it can run its own race.
- A 6.8% record at this course for D. Thompson. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
Five-year-old with a single win from 31 races, but has won 7% of the time on standard ground like today's conditions—the best win rate of any horse here. The major red flag is zero wins from eight starts on good ground, which is exactly what he'll encounter today, making his recent Sedgefield form less relevant than it looks.
2nd highest rated (OR 88)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £34.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- This type of ground has not suited the horse: 3 runs without much success. Some horses prefer different ground.
- Racing against weaker rivals than last time. Think of a Premier League team playing in the Championship. The drop in level helps.
- L. Quinlan wins only 2.1% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
Lowest-rated in the field at 69 and carries the minimum weight, but six career races without a win or a single top-3 finish tell a story of a horse struggling at every level. The pulled-up at Perth 41 days ago is a further concern before today's 2m 4f test.
Lowest rated, 11lbs below average
Carries lowest weight in field
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £26.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- 2m 4f is a good distance for this horse. Over its best distance, it can run its own race.
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- M. Sowersby has a 3.7% overall win rate, which is on the low side. That may mean the horse is not at its best.
TrackLab Insight
Three-year-old with zero wins from nine races and no top-3 finishes in the last six outings, priced at 33/1 as an afterthought. Recent form (5-4-5) suggests mid-field mediocrity, and the age and record combination indicates this horse is yet to find a winning distance or surface.
Outsider at 33/1
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £67.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Today's race is over 2m 4f. That distance looks right for this horse. Running over the right distance matters a lot.
- A low win rate on this ground from 3 previous runs. The ground could work against the horse today.
- J. Bedi has a 3.2% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
Five-year-old with zero wins and zero top-3 finishes from six races, posting a string of mid-field and back-field efforts. At 28/1 and with a long absence, this horse represents the outer margins of possibility in a competitive field.
Outsider at 28/1
What the colours mean
40+ Very strong chance
20–39 Strong chance
12–19 Solid chance
6–11 Could surprise
Under 6 Long shot
Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
- Underrated horse
- We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
- Our top pick
- The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
- TrackLab Score
- Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
- Ground
- How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
- Race level (Class)
- From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
- Group, Grade and Listed
- The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
- Handicap
- The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
- Maiden
- A race for horses that haven't won yet.
- Novice
- A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
- Chase, hurdle and bumper
- Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
- Distance (m and f)
- m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
- Each way
- A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
- Weight
- How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
- Jockey claim
- An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
- Headgear
- Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.